Ondas Holdings Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

ONDS Explodes in Parabolic Rally: Is $3 Next? Full Technical Playbook for the Volatility Surge

Base Accumulation: Price consolidated in the $0.75–$1.10 zone for April and early May, forming a volatility compression base with several false downside wicks, high-volume recovery rallies, and higher lows in late April–May.
Breakout & Momentum Leg: The breakout above $1.10 on May 28 (closing at $1.07) signaled trend reversal with increased volume, followed by a strong impulsive rally toward $1.22, $1.47, and ultimately the $1.75–1.90 region by late June.
Second Momentum Burst: June 30 to July 14 marked a second parabolic rally, from ~$1.92 ascending steadily with big candles and surges to $2.45. Volume was explosive (over 30 million shares on some days).
Consolidation After Climax: July 15 to July 28 showed some mean-reversion, with the pullback base forming between $2.00–$2.32 (including a sharp wick to $1.82 on July 29). This held a key prior breakout level as support.
Current Breakout: On August 4, the price exploded from $2.27 at the open (strong open, no downside wick), surging to $2.67 at the close—a near +20% daily candle with over 40 million shares traded. Intraday data shows sustained bids and strong high-close candles into the session end.

The intraday action showed a series of higher highs and higher lows from the open, with almost no real retracement. Prices pushed from $2.25 at the start to $2.67 (session high and close).
Multiple large bull candles ($2.25→$2.58→$2.62→$2.67) on very high volume, suggesting buying FOMO and possible short squeeze dynamics.
Very little late-day selling pressure—price closed at the session high, a sign of overwhelming demand, not exhaustion.

Volume Trends: There is a persistent escalation in trading volumes. The closing day’s volume around 40 million is the highest in months, which strongly confirms underlying momentum.
Price-Volume Confirmation: Each major rally was confirmed by volume spikes; during retracements, volume notably tailed off, suggesting the dips were supply absorption rather than distribution.
No Exhaustion Spikes: No evidence of blow-off top volume—price held the close at the high with only a tiny pullback into the close ($2.67 flat into the next opening tick). This points to strong buyers’ control.

a. Moving Averages (MA):

All shorter-term moving averages (5, 10, 20 period, ex-post estimation) are sharply sloped upwards and well below current price, confirming an extremely bullish short-term trend.
The 50-day MA has likely now crossed $1.60–$1.90, providing a strong upward thrust and setting up a possible momentum play.

b. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):

Today’s session is trading well above any recent VWAP—the average price paid today will be above $2.45, showing buyers have accepted a much higher price.

c. RSI & Stochastic Indicators (Qualitative):

RSI (14) is almost certainly above 80, possibly near 90 after today’s extension, indicating extreme overbought levels—however, in parabolic moves, RSI can and often does remain overbought for extended periods before reversal.
Stochastics are maxed, but until a clear reversal candle appears (long upper wick, bearish engulfing, etc.), there is little reason to fade momentum.

d. MACD:

The MACD line is far above the signal and histogram bars are expanding, confirming acceleration in upside momentum.

Pattern Recognition:

Flag/Pennant Formation: The short July consolidation ($2.00–2.32 zone) formed a classic bull flag, which was just resolved violently upward on August 4.
Measured Move Target: Classic flagpole projection from the $1.80–$2.45 run-up (~+65c) gives a near-term technical target of $2.32 + $0.65 = $2.97.
No Overhead Resistance: There is no supply overhead in recent history; the move is at multi-year highs (no older prices to act as resistance).
Short-Term Extensions: The recent expansion is steep—typically, after such surges, a brief 1–2 session pause or shallow pullback can develop, but ultra-strong momentum can drive squeezes further than expected.

ATR (Average True Range):
- Recent daily ATR has exploded, now likely exceeding $0.30–$0.35/day.
- Intraday volatility is very high—over $0.20 swings in less than an hour.
Implication: Option volatility is likely extreme; moves can overshoot targets, both to the upside and downside, within hours.

Strong Uptrend Psychology: Shorts have been squeezed out; FOMO buyers are driving up prices with little regard for immediate value.
Liquidity: The very high relative volume means there is ample liquidity for both new entries and exits.
Sentiment: All signals suggest bullish sentiment—late entrants, momentum chasers, and institutional players are likely participating.

Warning Signals:
- The extremely overbought conditions call for caution; a swift profit-taking drop of $0.20–0.30 is possible, triggered by even a minor reversal in sentiment or news event.
- There are currently no signs of sustained reversal—no doji/tombstone/inverse hammer, and low close-to-open gap risk given volume.

Trend: Violently bullish short-term, with evidence of strong institutional or speculative interest.
Pattern Target: Technical measured-move projects toward $2.95–$3.00 within the next 1–2 sessions.
Pullback Risk: If an exhaustion gap appears at tomorrow’s open (e.g., a spiking open above $2.75–2.80 with a swift reversal), a shakeout to $2.50–2.55 is possible before trend resumes.
Base Case (70%): Price pushes further up, possibly with pre-market volatility between $2.65–$2.80, targeting $2.90–$3.00 intraday.
Alternate Case (30%): Quick shakeout/pullback to $2.50–$2.52 before buyers step in.

Bias: Remain bullish, but adopt prudent risk management due to high velocity and volatility.

Open a BUY position at $2.67, with limit buy orders also staged on any intraday pullback toward $2.60–$2.63 to average in.

Next target: $2.95 (initial measured move projection). Consider scaling out partial positions as price approaches $2.90–$2.95.

Risk control: Use a tight trailing stop ($2.56, just below August 4 session’s mid-range, to protect against sudden reversals).

The uptrend is in full acceleration; chart patterns, volume, and order flow confirm breakout.
No meaningful resistance before $2.90–$3.00; while volatility is elevated, mean reversion risk is currently outweighed by ongoing bullish order flow.
Entry at $2.67 is justified given the strength, so long as trailing stops are employed for protection.

Decision: BUY. Open at $2.67, target $2.95.