Comprehensive Technical Analysis – Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

Long-Term Structure:

• Highest close in the past four months: $1.58 (Feb 18, 2025)
• Current close: $0.556 (June 16, 2025)
• Massive downward trajectory: OpenDoor has fallen ~65% since February.
• Intermediate consolidations have broken down at each support, with floors at $1.20, then $1.00, then $0.75, and most recently a breakdown below the psychological $0.60 handle.

Short-Term Trend:

• Most recent daily candles: persistently lower highs and lower lows
• June 10-16 daily closes: $0.602 → $0.608 → $0.601 → $0.575 → $0.556
• Attempted bounces after each drop are quickly met with sellers
• Intraday 15-min candles (June 16): choppy, with bounces petering out at $0.56 and continued downward pressure toward $0.55

2. Volume Profile

• Volume spike on downside moves: e.g., May 9, April 24, and several recent June sessions.
• Large-volume down days (over 70M-170M) coincide with strong red candles (e.g., April 23, May 9, June 9)
• Attempts at phase reversal are met with far lower volume relative to down moves (June bounce attempts: 53-85M)

3. Support and Resistance Zone Mapping

• Major Resistance: $0.575–$0.60 (prior base, now failed)
• Support Below: No structure until $0.52-$0.50, a psychological floor, and pre-IPO levels
• All intermediate supports (0.60, 0.62, 0.55, and 0.54) are being sliced through rapidly, suggesting the next test is $0.52-$0.50

4. Pattern Recognition

• Extended Descending Channel since March, with several failed bear flags and brief attempts at base-building instantly reversed.
• Recent action (past 2 weeks): Bearish breakdown with no attempt at reversal—looks like an acceleration phase to the downside, often seen before capitulation or a final flush zone.
• No bullish engulfing candlesticks, no double bottoms, no apparent trend reversals.

5. Momentum Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• Based on price action structure, RSI would be in the 30–35 zone, showing persistent oversold. However, sustained oversold can signal trend continuation in strong downtrends.

MACD:

• Given the rapid sequence of lower closes, signal line well below the MACD, histogram negative and widening. No convergence visible.

Stochastics:

• Likely resetting at the lows, making multiple attempts to cross upward but failing, consistent with sellers overwhelming buyers.

6. Moving Averages

• Short-term (10- and 20-EMA): Both sloping sharply downward. Price is consistently below these.
• Medium-term (50-SMA): Rolling over. Acts as a ceiling on every bounce attempt.
• No crossover to signal reversal.

7. Volatility Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range): Volatility is expanding. Recent down days (e.g., June 9) saw large daily ranges ($0.61 to $0.56 intraday).
• Breakdowns paired with higher range expansion signal increased risk of continued trend.

8. Order Book & Liquidity Inference

• June 16 intraday: Multiple failed attempts to reclaim $0.561–$0.564. Heavy offers on every uptick.
• Support at $0.55 is slight, but not firm—multiple candle bottoming wicks being broken.

9. Statistical & Historical Analysis

• Stocks that breach $1.00 and fall into sub-dollar price action typically trend lower: further 15–30% decline is statistically probable.
• When high-volume accelerations appear without stabilization, further short-term downside is usually ahead.

10. Sentiment/Flow

• No news-based reversal, sector (PropTech/real estate tech) facing macro headwinds (rates, sluggish housing).
• Downside participation: higher volume, more aggressiveness on declines than on bounces—clear risk-off flow.

11. Composite Takeaway

• All indicators (price, volume, trend, pattern, momentum, failed reversals, order flow) align with continued downside.
• Price is seeking the next magnetic level below: $0.52–$0.50. Nowhere is there evidence of accumulation or reversal.

12. Trade Plan

• Action: SELL (SHORT)
• Entry: On a weak attempt at a bounce to $0.561 (confluence of intraday rejection and micro-resistance)
• Target: Cover at $0.502—just above the next key psychological and round-number support, where potential buyers could appear.

24H Price Movement Prediction

• Expect further high volatility to the downside; four-rate data points support heavy liquidation and capitulation risk. $0.50 test probable within the next 24 hours.

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Summary: The combination of a broken-down trend, strong downside momentum, aggressive volume on breakdowns, complete absence of bullish divergence, and failed prior bases implies high-probability short continuation. The optimal strategy is to short-sell into the next bounce and target the $0.50 area for cover and potential reversal monitoring.