Full Technical Analysis for Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) — July 22, 2025

1. Long-Term & Recent Context

Big Picture:

• In just a few sessions, OPEN has experienced an extraordinary surge: from $0.77 on June 26 to a peak of nearly $5.00 on July 21 and settling at $2.88 (current).
• Volume: Last two sessions (July 21: 1.895B, July 22: 1.057B) are record-breaking, indicating extreme participation and, likely, speculative trading as well as short covering.
• This rally represents a multi-hundred percent move in less than a month.

Trend:

• The stock sharply transitioned from months of grinding in the $0.70–$1.50 range into a massive breakout.
• The current pullback from $4.97 (high on July 21) toward $2.88 means we've seen more than a 40% retracement from the high.
• On the hourly and daily timeframes, the latest candles resemble blow-off tops and subsequent sharp profit-taking.

Momentum Indicators:

• RSI (14D): While exact RSI is not given, moves of this magnitude typically push RSI (Daily/Hourly) deeply overbought (>85) during the spike, now rapidly normalizing but likely still elevated (~60–65), suggesting waning momentum.
• MACD: Will show exceptionally bullish recent cross then likely bearish divergence as price makes lower highs intraday.

Volume Insights:

• The biggest volumes coincided with both the parabolic rise and selling at the $5.00–$3.00 area — classic sign of distribution and profit-taking at top.
• The reduced, but still very large volume during the drop suggests aggressive selling and perhaps late longs getting out, with a possible shift toward new short positions.

2. Chart Patterns & Price Action

Patterns:

• Blow-Off Top: Candle structure on July 21-22 is classic: massive high, long upper wicks, closing well off highs, followed by large red candles.
• Intraday Head and Shoulders/Double Top: Today's high failed to retake the $3.90–$4.00 area and made consecutively lower highs on the hourly chart. The collapse from $3.88 to $2.72 (last hour) broke intraday support.
• Uptrend Break: The price has decisively breached the prior short-term rising support trendline from the lows at $0.50.

Fibonacci Levels (from $0.50 to $4.97):

• 38.2% retracement: ~$2.41
• 50% retracement: ~$2.74
• 61.8% retracement: ~$3.07
• The price just broke below the 61.8% retracement and is straddling the 50% line ($2.74 zone), which often acts as near-term support, but a break here opens risk to further downside.

Moving Averages (projected):

• 20/50/200 SMA (Daily): All shorter MAs will be lagging and surging up, but price is now below what would be the 5 and 15-min MAs, and likely threatening a cross below the hourly 20 SMA.

3. Trend & Candlestick Analysis (Intraday & Daily)

• The last 5 hours show persistent lower highs and lower lows — short-term downtrend established.
• Intraday candlesticks: Long upper wicks, solid bodies closing near lows — indicative of sellers dominating.
• Last hourly candle at $2.72 is a full-bodied red candle, closing at the low with no wick, suggesting urgency to get out before end of day.

4. Support/Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Resistance: $3.00, $3.21, $3.43, then $4.00
• Immediate Support: $2.75, then $2.40, then $2.00 and a psychological anchor at $1.50
• Today's low ($2.54) will be a critical pivot. If $2.72 fails to hold, rapid downward moves are probable.

5. Sentiment, Volatility & Options Considerations

• Implied Volatility: Would be at extreme levels given recent movement, increasing premiums and risk for overnight swings.
• Sentiment: Excessive optimism/short squeeze has likely flipped to fear (FOMO to panic). Late longs underwater, high likelihood of retail capitulation if $2.70 area fails.

6. Professional Investment Techniques

• Volume-Price Analysis: High volume at the top and during the drop indicates institutional distribution. Low likelihood of sustained rally without significant base forming.
• VWAP: Price is now well below today's VWAP ($3.25)—indicating sellers' control.
• Relative Strength vs. Sector/Index: Massive outperformance is unsustainable; mean reversion trades tend to outperform here.
• Elliott Wave: Count implies the stock finished a 5th wave up, now retracing—targeting wave A/C down to at least 38.2%–50% retracement (i.e., $2.40–$2.74).
• Bollinger Bands: Price moved well beyond upper band ($4.95 peak), now returning rapidly to median band—momentum strongly negative.

7. Risk Assessment & Probability Matrix

• Risk of Short Squeeze? Minimizing, as most shorts have likely covered into the parabolic pop.
• Gap Risk: Upside gaps unlikely unless news; downside gap possible if stop-losses are triggered around $2.70.
• Probability:
  • 60%+ chance of continued downside into $2.40–$2.00 zone over next 24h
  • 30% probability of stabilization/sideways chop $2.70–$3.00
  • <10% chance of V-shaped recovery back above $3.20 without a significant base

8. Trade Design

Strategy: Short/Sell, targeting breakdown of the $2.74–$2.70 zone following repeated failed holds, betting on continued unwind of speculative excess. Stop-Loss: Above $3.12 (recent 1h high), managing risk in case of unexpected rebound. Profit Target: Cover toward $2.40 (Fibonacci, previous strong support, and consolidation zone). If panic intensifies, could go lower, but $2.40 is a prudent exit for short-term trade.

9. Final Synthesis and Recommendation

• All convergence of technicals (volume at top, VWAP, momentum, broken trendlines, failed support levels, overbought unwinding, risk sentiment reversal) confirms SHORT BIAS.
• Optimal Entry is here at $2.88 or slightly higher on a failed intraday bounce ($2.90–$2.95).

Conclusion: SELL/SHORT RECOMMENDED.

Open a short position at current price ($2.88), target cover at $2.40, stop at $3.12. Elevated probability of further decline as the bubble unwinds.