Step 1: Price Trend & Chart Pattern Recognition

Medium to Long-Term Trend (April–August)

• From April to late June, OPEN trended mostly sideways to slightly down, in a compressed range (approx. $0.55–$1.10). Volume stayed moderately high, without dramatic price spikes, indicating accumulation and lack of conviction.
• Abrupt trend change occurred mid-July: prices surged rapidly from ~$0.90 (Jul 14) to $4.97 (Jul 21; massive ~450% rally in one week), accompanied by a parabolic spike in traded volume.
• Price then retraced quickly, with high volatility, falling to $2.88, $2.42, and stabilizing recently around $2.10–$2.50.
• Chart shows a rapid blow-off top/capitulation pattern, followed by a sharp multi-day retracement, resembling classic short-term bubble dynamics.

Support & Resistance Analysis

• Key Resistance:
  • $2.25–$2.54 (multiple failed breakouts Jul 25–30)
  • $2.88, $3.21 (post-spike lower highs)
• Key Support:
  • $2.00 (recent minor bounce area and round-number psychological support)
  • $1.87 (recent swing low and bottom of high-volatility candle)
  • $1.54–$1.65 (mid-July pre-spike level, potential magnet on further weakness)

Step 2: Candlestick & Volume Analysis

• Parabolic Rally: Massive green candles Jul 16–21 (biggest on Jul 21, closing at $3.21). Volume soared (up to 1.9B shares), confirming mania phase.
• Distribution/Cooling: Obviously red series after Jul 21. Sellers dominate: very large upper wicks (rejections), lower closes each day, big volume staying on red candles, suggesting aggressive offloading by strong hands.
• Recent candles (Jul 29–Aug 1): Tight range $2.05–$2.25 with closing prices near the daily lows; each intraday up-move met with supply.

Step 3: Technical Indicators

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)

Given the parabolic recent run, use short and medium moving averages:

• 20-period SMA (since current price is $2.10): Likely sitting below current price, since surge only started recently—but gap is closing as price retraces.
• 50-period SMA: Still lagging well below ($1.00–$1.25 area); price has separated far above, implying overbought/unsustainable rally.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Leading into Jul 21 rally, RSI most likely exceeded 80 (extreme overbought). Following retracement, RSI has probably dropped to the 45–55 region—could dip lower if price fails to rally off $2.
• Currently, momentum is fading, RSI likely to slip further on selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands would be wide apart due to volatility, with price collapsing to the middle band (20-SMA) or lower. Currently, OPEN is hugging the lower/mid band, indicating negative momentum.

MACD

• Fast line crossed sharply above slow line during the run-up; now converging or crossing down, supporting fading bullish momentum and signaling a SELL.

Step 4: Advanced Techniques

Fibonacci Retracement (Jul 14 low to Jul 21 high: $0.90 to $4.97)

• 38.2% retracement: ~$3.18
• 50% retracement: ~$2.93
• 61.8% retracement: ~$2.68
• Current price sits well below all these, supporting that a deep retracement is in play.
• 78.6% retracement: ~$1.88—this is a likely target if downside persists and a critical support level.

Volume Profile

• Highest traded volume post-spike appears between $2.00–$2.50; likely forming a high-volume node/supply zone, acting as short-term resistance.
• Heavy exit volume on red days shows strong hands are distributing shares.

ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR has spiked, showing high volatility. Recent price action is compressing within a tighter ATR range, as momentum fades.

Wyckoff Distribution

• The current cycle (parabolic rise, sharp peak, fast lower highs, increased volatility, heavy volume on declines) matches the Wyckoff distribution schematic, signaling more downside potential.

Step 5: Elliott Wave Theory

• The five-wave uptrend (frantic move to $5) is complete, and we are in an ABC corrective sequence.
  • Wave A: First leg down to $2.88
  • Wave B: Weak recovery to $2.53
  • Wave C: Ongoing impulse down—targeting sub-$2; $1.65–1.88 possible.

Step 6: Market Sentiment & Psychology

• Retail euphoria has turned to fear, FOMO to risk-off. Price is stuck in a downtrend as late buyers capitulate.
• No evidence of a bullish reversal pattern; daily closes keep hitting session lows or barely above.

Conclusion (24-Hour Forecast)

• Price likely to test and breach $2.00 support soon.
• Expect high volatility with possible spike down to $1.85–$1.95 zone.
• Sellers remain in control; buyers are weak and only buying minor dips.

Trading Decision: SELL (Short Position) on breakdown below $2.10. Target $1.88 for profit. Set tight stop above recent range high ($2.25) to limit risk.