Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)

1. Price Trend and Chart Structure Analysis

• Recent Context: From late June 2025, the stock started a dramatic rally, moving from $0.55 to highs over $4.96, peaking on July 21. Since then, the price has reversed and entered a strong retracement phase, now trading at ~$1.90.
• Price Action: The last few days reveal high volatility with deep pullbacks from recent highs, suggesting increased profit-taking and a shift in sentiment. After topping at nearly $5, there was a strong multi-day selloff that found some support in the high $1.80s—$2.00 zone.
• Candlestick Structure:
  • The most recent hourly/daily candles formed long upper wicks and small real bodies, showing significant selling pressure on rallies (as evidenced in the $2.05-$2.10 attempt being sold off violently).
  • The last few hours show a move from $2.04 to $1.89, with the current close at $1.90. No clear reversal candle (such as a hammer or bullish engulfing) has emerged in the most recent session.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Climax: The trend reversal and local top around $4.96 on July 21 coincided with record volume (over 1.8B shares), suggesting a blow-off top and distribution event.
• Recent Volume: Trading volumes remain elevated compared to pre-breakout levels, but are reducing on the decline—this could mean short-term exhaustion but not a rejuvenation of buyers yet.
• Today's Trading: Notably, the significant volume surge in the first hour (86M shares at 13:30) coincided with a failed reprieve that was immediately faded, indicating sellers remain firmly in control.

3. Moving Average and Trend Following

• 20/50/200-period EMA/SMA:
  • The current price is well below the highest momentum region around $2.80-$3.20 (post-breakout), and now sits below what would be the likely 20/50 hourly MA (likely ~$2.05 and $2.20 based on recent action).
  • The long-term trend remains up from a multi-week perspective, but daily/4hr timeframe shows clear short-term bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows forming after the peak.

4. RSI & Momentum Oscillators

• RSI Analysis:
  • Intraday RSI (estimated from price swings) is now retreating from prior overbought readings (~85) and currently oscillating near the 35-45 zone on the 1-hr chart, showing continued bearish momentum but not yet deeply oversold, which leaves room for more near-term downside.
• MACD:
  • Rapid contraction from wide bullish histogram to a narrowing, almost negative MACD line, confirming near-term bearish cross and trend weakening.

5. Support and Resistance Zones

• Immediate Resistance:
  • $2.00–$2.05: Recent intraday tops, repeatedly rejected in past few hours.
  • $2.24–$2.30: Intraday highs and failed bounces from earlier.
• Immediate Support:
  • $1.87–$1.90: Intraday low and prior consolidation base; if broken, opens downside to $1.75 (mini support pivot from July 17–18 pullback), then $1.55 (gap fill/support on July 16 breakout).

6. Fibonacci Retracement

• From the $0.55 low to $4.96 top, the 61.8% retracement is ~ $2.00, and the price is pausing just below. The 78.6% retracement (next major fib level) sits at roughly $1.45–$1.60, suggesting further room to unwind.
• The failure to reclaim above the 61.8% level today after multiple bounce attempts is technically decisive.

7. Chart Patterns and Risk Profile

• Pattern Observed: Sharp parabolic rally, followed by a classic blow-off and descending channel with lower highs, now sitting on the lower boundary of the channel.
• Risk Profile:
  • High volatility regime (ATR well above historical norms).
  • Sellers have used every rally for liquidity; bulls are not stepping up at prior supports.
• Market Sentiment: Sentiment has clearly swung from euphoria/speculation to fear/profit-taking.

8. Volume Profile and Order Flow

• The largest traded volume was at the top—the lack of a meaningful basing zone below current price suggests limited institutional support. Order book depth is likely thin below $1.90, and a rapid flush could occur on further weakness.

9. Price Target and Trading Plan

• Short-term outlook: With current price action, all technical signs point to a continued retracement unless price can reclaim $2.00–2.05 with conviction.
• Downside Risk: Given the failure of multiple support levels, minimal bounce attempts, and continued selling into strength, price is likely to test the next major demand zone around $1.69–$1.74 within 24 hours. If that fails, $1.55 is likely to be next.
• Stop Level for Shorts: Close above $2.05–2.10 (where last high-volume fade occurred) would invalidate the setup.

10. Confluence and Decision

• Confluence of technical evidence (volume, RSI, momentum, patterns, and lack of support) points clearly to SELL.
• Opening a short position just below $1.90 (preferably $1.89 to catch breakdown acceleration) allows optimal risk/reward, targeting a cover at $1.71 ($1.70 region), just above next major support.
• Continue monitoring for a reversal pattern, but no such evidence is currently present.

Conclusion: Opendoor Technologies Inc is likely to continue its correction after a blow-off top. I expect price to reach $1.71 or below in the next 24 hours. Action: Sell at $1.89, take profit at $1.71.

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