OPEN coiled above pivot: lining up a $2.00 break and a run toward 2.14

Overview and context

• Ticker: OPEN (Opendoor Technologies Inc.)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: 1.95
• Recent regime: Post-squeeze comedown followed by basing. After peaking intraday near 4.97 on 7/21, OPEN retraced sharply and has been forming a volatile base in the 1.80–2.60 zone. Today (8/8) printed a strong green day off 1.77 with a close at 1.95 and intraday high ~2.02.
• Liquidity/volume: Volume remains elevated relative to pre-squeeze norms (today ~88M shares), though below the July climax days. This is consistent with a high-beta, momentum-prone tape where intraday signals matter.

Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Short-term downtrend from 7/21 high has moderated. Lows: 2.05 (7/29), 2.07 (7/30), 1.84 (7/31), 1.85 (8/7), and a new intraday low 1.77 (8/8) that was bought. Today’s higher close vs. 8/7 (1.95 vs. 1.85) is the first meaningful attempt to reclaim the 1.90s.
• Key daily levels:
  • Major resistance cluster: 2.00 (psychological), 2.06 (pivot R2 from 8/7), 2.10–2.15 (10D SMA mean-reversion and prior congestion), 2.25, 2.46–2.52 (8/4–8/5 swing highs).
  • Supports: 1.90 (intraday shelf), 1.85 (8/7 close and multi-touch support), 1.77 (today’s low), 1.70 (8/7 intraday low).
• Intraday (hourly) structure on 8/8: Higher lows from the open, push to 2.00 around 16:30Z, controlled pullback to ~1.93–1.95, and a steady close near 1.94–1.95. This intraday trend is constructive and fits a “buy-the-dip above VWAP” day.

Moving averages and mean reversion

• Short MAs (approx.):
  • 5D SMA ≈ 2.13 (2.46, 2.52, 1.90, 1.85, 1.95) → current 1.95 is below, suggesting short-term resistance overhead.
  • 10D SMA ≈ 2.11 → also above price; bullish thesis benefits if price reclaims this band (2.10–2.13).
  • 20D SMA (rough) ≈ 2.00–2.05 given the mix of sub-$1 prints earlier and the squeeze highs; price is hovering just below/around this area.
• Takeaway: There is a magnet effect toward the 2.05–2.15 mean-reversion zone if intraday momentum persists. A push through 2.00 opens the door to 2.06/2.10.

Momentum indicators (qualitative estimates)

• RSI (Daily, 14): Likely mid-range (≈45–50). Today’s green candle should lift RSI, providing room to the upside before overbought conditions emerge.
• MACD (Daily): Downtrend momentum has been waning; histogram likely flattening. On the hourly, momentum turned positive during the 13:30–16:30Z push toward 2.00, consistent with a short-term bullish bias.
• Stochastics (Hourly): Likely in upper-mid range post-rally; mild overbought intraday but not extreme, allowing for one more push if dips get bought.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (approx.): 0.35–0.45 following the squeeze and comedown. Today’s true range was ~0.25, below the recent ATR, suggesting room for a larger swing in the next active session.
• Implication: A 24h move of ±0.30–0.40 is plausible; 2.15 on the upside and 1.65–1.75 on the downside define extremes.

Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Bands remain wide; price sits near the mid-band. A push above 2.00 would lean price toward the upper-half of the envelope, aligning with a 2.10–2.20 test.
• Keltner Channels: Price nearing the midline; a close >2.00 would typically see momentum traders chase toward the upper channel.

VWAP and intraday execution context

• Today’s session VWAP (approx.): ~1.92–1.94. Price spent the latter half of the day above VWAP, pulling back to and holding around it.
• Strategy takeaway: Dips into VWAP (1.92–1.94) are attractive for longs so long as 1.85 holds.

Volume/flow diagnostics

• On-Balance Volume (OBV) intraday: Rising through the day; net positive accumulation during the move to 2.00 and into the close.
• Accumulation/Distribution: Today’s close in the upper half of the range after testing 1.77 suggests net accumulation, reducing odds of immediate breakdowns unless fresh supply appears.

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 7/21 high 4.97 to 7/31 low 1.84. The retracement has not reclaimed 38.2% (~2.99). We are consolidating far below bigger Fibonacci resistances from the macro swing.
• Micro swing: 7/31 low 1.84 to 8/5 high 2.52. 61.8% retracement sits near ~2.10; recent price failed to hold above this level earlier in the week, turning it into near-term resistance. A daily close above ~2.10 would be a constructive signal and aligns with the 10D SMA.

Pivot points

• Using 8/7 data (H 1.93, L 1.70, C 1.85):
  • Pivot P ≈ 1.8267
  • R1 ≈ 1.9534 (today’s close sits right at/just under this), R2 ≈ 2.0567, R3 ≈ 2.1834
  • S1 ≈ 1.7234, S2 ≈ 1.5967
• Using 8/8 data for next session planning (H ~2.02, L ~1.77, C 1.95):
  • Pivot P ≈ 1.9133, R1 ≈ 2.0566, R2 ≈ 2.1633, R3 ≈ 2.2999; S1 ≈ 1.8066, S2 ≈ 1.6633
• Takeaway: The 2.05–2.06 band is a tactical inflection; a break/hold above it can open a travel path to ~2.16–2.18.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• On hourly, price likely above the conversion (Tenkan) with Tenkan> Kijun after today’s run; cloud thickness suggests resistance near 2.05–2.15. A bullish TK cross earlier in the session aligns with the intraday uptrend; a Monday open above ~1.93 keeps the favorable bias.

Wyckoff lens

• After the July distribution top, the stock is in an accumulation-like process: spring/flush to 1.77 early today, recovery and close high in range. That “spring” and test favors upside follow-through into resistance if demand persists.

Candlestick read

• Today: Long lower wick and a green body that retraced deeply into yesterday’s body (bullish piercing/near-engulfing). This is a constructive reversal-type candle off support.

Risk clusters and invalidation

• Supports to defend: 1.90 intraday shelf; 1.85 hard line (multi-touch). Below 1.85, risk opens to 1.77 and 1.70 quickly given thin order book.
• Overhead supply: $2.00 round number; 2.06 pivot; 2.10–2.15 “mean reversion + prior congestion” zone; 2.25/2.30 next.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (~55%): Slightly bullish continuation. Early dip to 1.92–1.94 (VWAP/prev close area) finds buyers; break/attempt through 2.00 tests 2.05–2.06. If volume appears, extension to 2.12–2.16 possible; settle 2.02–2.10.
• Bear case (~25%): Gap-down/weak open, failure at 1.92; slide to 1.88–1.85. A decisive break of 1.85 would invite 1.77/1.80 retest.
• High-beta surge (~20%): Aggressive chase over 2.06 triggers stops; price spikes into 2.16–2.20 quickly. Overextension likely fades back toward 2.08–2.12 by session end.

Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Thesis: Intraday structure and a constructive daily candle near well-defined support (1.85) favor a buy-the-dip approach, targeting a mean-reversion push into the 2.10–2.16 band. Risk is defined against 1.85.
• Entry: Prefer limit buy on pullback into 1.92 (VWAP/prev close cluster). If not filled and price powers through 2.00 with volume, a momentum add-on is viable, but that’s a secondary tactic.
• Target: 2.14 (captures the 10D SMA/61.8% micro area and just under R2 from 8/8 pivots at ~2.16; front-running likely sellers).
• Stop (for risk management, not part of requested output): 1.84 (below the multi-touch 1.85 support and today’s spring). Risk ≈ 0.08–0.10; reward ≈ 0.22; R:R ≈ 2.2–2.7:1.

What would change my mind

• Immediate failure of 1.90 on volume and a daily close back below 1.85 would invalidate the long bias and shift the tactical plan to short bounces toward 1.92 with a 1.70–1.75 target.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• Bias: Buy dips. Expect a retest of 2.00–2.06 and, if reclaimed, a push toward 2.12–2.16 within the next active session. Consolidation likely afterward.