OPEN at the Halfback: High-Probability Dip-Buy Setup into 3.50–3.60

Overview and context

• Ticker: OPEN (Opendoor Technologies)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: 3.22
• Session context (2025-08-20): Daily range 3.06–3.63, close 3.22 on falling volume versus the prior two sessions. Intraday showed early pop, strong sell-off to 3.06, then a stabilizing grind into the close near 3.20–3.24.
• Regime: Post-squeeze/high-momentum name with expanding ranges since mid-July and very elevated turnover. A powerful up-leg from late July lows (~1.84) to recent highs (~4.10–4.97 peak earlier) followed by a two-day pullback on lighter volume.

Multi-timeframe trend analysis

• Higher time frame (since mid-July): Clear uptrend. After the July 16–21 explosion (high to 4.97 intraday on 7/21), price retraced to 1.84 (7/31), then built a higher low and resumed upward. Structure: Higher highs (3.95 on 8/18, 4.10 on 8/19 intraday) and higher lows (1.84 → 1.85–1.95 → 2.31 → 2.47), confirming bullish market structure.
• Daily: Despite a 2-day pullback (3.78 → 3.62 → 3.22 closes), the sequence of higher swing lows remains intact above 3.00 and prior pivot shelves ~2.88–2.97. Pullback occurred on declining volume, characteristic of a bullish consolidation/backing-up action within an uptrend.
• Intraday (hourly): Today’s action formed a down-then-base pattern: lower highs through midday, capitulation low ~3.06 around 17:30Z, then basing 3.20–3.27 into the close. Price closed below day VWAP (estimated ~3.32–3.35), indicating intraday sellers in control, but stabilization near key retracement support suggests selling pressure is easing.

Moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 2.50 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 3.22 remains well above the 20-D SMA, indicating intermediate-term uptrend intact.
• 50/100/200-day SMAs (approximate): Heavily skewed lower due to pre-squeeze pricing; current price is materially above these, signaling a strong longer-term bullish bias.
• EMA slope: Short EMAs (e.g., 9/12) likely still rising but flattening; pullback of the last two sessions reduces slope but does not invert trend. Price above 20-D mean = bullish with room to mean-revert upward on shorter intraday EMAs if support holds.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 65 (derived from the last 14 closes). Interpretation: Bullish momentum; cooled from overbought but still above the 50 midline. This level often supports trend continuation after healthy pullbacks.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Came down from overbought toward mid-zone; room to cycle higher if price bounces from support.

MACD

• Daily MACD remains positive after the July/August thrust. The histogram likely contracted over the last two sessions (bearish short-term momentum), but the MACD line likely remains above zero and near/above the signal line. This is consistent with a pullback within a broader bull phase and sets up a potential bullish re-cross if price turns up over the next 1–2 sessions.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (estimate) ≈ 0.45–0.50. The last three sessions’ true ranges (0.43–0.80) show expanded volatility but a slight moderation today. Expect 24-hour swing potential of roughly ±0.45 from entry, placing typical bounds near 2.75–3.75 depending on entry price.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• 20-D mid-band ≈ 2.50; estimated upper band ≈ 3.65–3.70; lower ≈ 1.30–1.35 (wide due to regime shift). Current price at 3.22 sits above the middle band, in the upper half of the envelope, consistent with an intact intermediate uptrend and room to re-approach the upper band on a bounce.

Fibonacci analysis

• Most relevant swing for the current leg: 8/14 low 2.26 to 8/19 high 4.10 (Δ = 1.84)
  • 38.2%: 4.10 − 0.382×1.84 ≈ 3.40
  • 50%: 4.10 − 0.500×1.84 ≈ 3.18
  • 61.8%: 4.10 − 0.618×1.84 ≈ 2.96
• Today’s close 3.22 is almost exactly at the 50% retracement (3.18), with intraday low 3.06 nearing the 61.8% zone (2.96–3.00). This is classic “golden-pocket/halfback” confluence support for a trend continuation setup.

Support and resistance (market structure)

• Immediate supports: 3.18–3.22 (50% Fib and close), 3.06–3.10 (today’s low and pre-break shelf), 3.00 (psych round), 2.96 (61.8% Fib), 2.88–2.90 (7/22 pivot/close), 2.47–2.52 (prior acceptance).
• Immediate resistances: 3.34–3.40 (38.2% Fib and intraday supply shelf), 3.47–3.50 (intraday rejection zone), 3.62–3.65 (yesterday’s close/pre-sell zone), 3.78 (8/18 close), 4.00–4.10 (psych and recent peak).

Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume: 8/18 (414M) → 8/19 (340M) → 8/20 (239M). Declining on the pullback = constructive (sellers less aggressive). The highest recent up-days had very large volume, building strong OBV. OBV trend remains higher even after two red days.
• Intraday: Heavy early session turnover around 3.35–3.50 followed by capitulation wicks near 3.06–3.10. Late-day stabilization with lower volume suggests selling exhaustion near support.

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Today’s session VWAP (approx.) ~3.32–3.35. Price closed below VWAP—short-term intraday control with sellers. However, the proximity to the 50% Fib and forming base raises the odds of a VWAP reversion move tomorrow if early dips are defended.
• Anchored VWAP from the 8/14 breakout likely sits in the mid-to-high 2’s; price still above, maintaining bullish context.

Ichimoku

• Daily price above the cloud; Tenkan (9-period mid) estimates near 2.95–3.00; Kijun (26) ~2.70–2.80 (broad estimate). Current price 3.22 > Tenkan/Kijun = bullish. Chikou span likely above price action and cloud, reinforcing the higher-timeframe trend. Pullbacks to Tenkan commonly offer continuation entries in strong trends—today’s trade aligns with that playbook.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Count from the 2.26 low: impulsive Wave 3 into 4.10 (8/19), now in Wave 4 correction probing the 0.5–0.618 retrace (3.18–2.96). If this holds, a Wave 5 attempt could target the 3.60–3.80 zone first, with extension attempts toward 4.00–4.10 later. Invalidated on decisive daily closes below ~2.90.

Wyckoff interpretation

• 8/14–8/18: Sign of Strength (SOS) and breakout. 8/19–8/20: Backing Up to the Edge of the Creek (BUEC) on lighter volume into 3.00–3.20 support. If demand reasserts, expect a rally back through 3.34–3.50 (last supply zone) toward the prior SOS highs.

Candlestick reads

• 8/18: Strong bullish candle; 8/19: Red day but not climactic; 8/20: Another red day with a long lower tail intraday down to ~3.06 and close near 3.22—suggesting dip-buying emerged near the golden pocket. Not a classic hammer on the daily, but intraday prints resemble a spring-like probe.

Risk factors and invalidation

• A clean break and hold below 3.06 opens the door to 2.96–3.00; loss of 2.96 increases risk of a deeper pullback to 2.88–2.90. Elevated volatility and headline sensitivity persist for OPEN; gap risk is non-trivial.

24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

• Base case (60%): Pullback exhausted near 3.18–3.22; early dip toward 3.12–3.20 is defended; mean-reversion rally toward 3.40–3.55 as price reclaims/approaches session VWAP and tests 3.47–3.50 supply. Close in the 3.40–3.55 band.
• Bear case (25%): Early sell continuation breaks 3.06; quick flush toward 2.96–3.00; buyers attempt defense there; close in the 3.05–3.25 range.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong bid off the open, swift reclaim of 3.40 and push through 3.50; test 3.62–3.65. Unlikely to clear 3.78–4.00 within 24h without a fresh catalyst given ATR constraints.

Trade plan rationale

• Confluences for a tactical long:
  • Price sitting atop the 50% retracement (3.18) of the 2.26→4.10 leg; intraday low probed near the 61.8% zone, then stabilized.
  • Pullback on declining volume into well-defined support bands (3.18–3.22; 3.06–3.10; 3.00).
  • RSI(14) ~65: Momentum still bullish; room to re-accelerate.
  • Above 20-D SMA and Ichimoku baselines.
  • Two-day pullback likely sets up a VWAP reversion toward 3.40–3.55 on any early strength.
• Execution details (24h horizon): Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near 3.18 (50% Fib) with a tactical target into the 3.50–3.60 resistance band. A prudent stop for risk control (not required by prompt) would sit just below 3.00–3.02 to avoid whipsaws and respect the 61.8% retrace zone.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy-the-dip for a 24-hour bounce toward 3.50–3.60, provided 3.06–3.10 holds on early tests. If 3.06 breaks and 3.00 doesn’t immediately catch, the setup is invalid for the session and patience is warranted.