Inside-Day Breakout Sets OPEN Up For a Push Toward the High 3s

Executive summary

• Ticker: OPEN (Opendoor Technologies Inc)
• Current price: 3.60 at 21:00 UTC 2025-08-21
• Session recap: Today printed a strong bullish day after yesterday’s pullback. Daily range 3.13 to 3.71, close near the highs at 3.60 with heavy volume. Intraday broke above yesterday’s inside-day high and reclaimed key intraday VWAP levels, finishing with buyers in control.
• 24h view: Momentum skew is up. Expect a shallow dip toward 3.50–3.56 followed by a test of 3.70–3.71 and, if cleared, a continuation push toward 3.85–3.95. Baseline plan is buy-the-dip into support with a target just below the next major supply shelf.

Context and structure

• July regime shift: Price exploded from sub-1.00 to a 4.97 spike on 2025-07-21, followed by a high-volatility digestion phase. Since early August, the stock has put in a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicative of re-accumulation after the initial markup.
• Recent swing path: 1.95 (Aug 8) → 3.17 (Aug 15) → 3.06 (Aug 20) higher low → 3.60 close (Aug 21). That preserves the higher-low structure and resets momentum for another leg up provided 3.32–3.35 holds on dips.

Multi-timeframe trend diagnostics

• Daily trend: Up. The 5, 10, and 20 day moving averages are all rising and below price.
  • 5 day SMA ≈ 3.48 (today’s close 3.60 > 3.48)
  • 10 day SMA ≈ 2.96
  • 20 day SMA ≈ 2.56
  • Distance from 20 day SMA ≈ +40%, a sign of a strong regime but also elevated pullback risk on bad headlines.
• Intraday trend: Up. Today reclaimed and held above session VWAP into the close with higher lows across the afternoon and a closing ramp toward 3.60–3.61.
• Momentum reset: After a two-day fade into Aug 20, today’s upside break of the inside-day high signaled trend resumption.

Support and resistance map

• Immediate support: 3.56–3.58 (today’s VWAP cluster), then 3.48–3.52 (daily pivot P and value area low), then 3.35 (intraday demand and prior pivot).
• Primary resistance: 3.70–3.71 (today’s high and a 61.8 percent retrace level), then 3.78–3.85 (Aug 18 closing shelf and daily resistance), then 3.95–4.10 (major supply and the Aug 19 swing high zone).
• Structural levels from the digestion range:
  • 3.20–3.25: Strong demand shelf, yesterday’s close and today’s early base.
  • 2.90: Classic S2 from pivot math and the top of an older gap. Would be a larger failure if seen.

Classical indicators

• RSI 14: Approximately 68–69. Momentum bullish but not yet extreme. This supports continuation with room to push into low 70s on a breakout.
• MACD (12,26,9): Positive and re-accelerating after a brief histogram contraction on Aug 19–20. Today’s expansion suggests a new impulse.
• Stochastic: Likely in 70–80 territory. Not a sell signal by itself in a trend; fast oscillators can embed at highs during markups.
• ADX: Trend strength likely > 25 with rising +DI, consistent with a directional market.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near 2.56, upper band estimated around 3.75–3.80 given recent volatility. Price closed just below the upper band, a typical staging area for continuation attempts.
• ATR 14: Roughly 0.55–0.60, or about 15–17 percent of price. Expect another wide day; position sizing must respect this.

Ichimoku view

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun; cloud projected higher. Tenkan (9-period mid) estimated around low 3.1s; Kijun (26-period mid) likely around mid 2s. With price above both and a rising Senkou span, the cloud model is firmly bullish. Pullbacks toward Tenkan often buyable in regimes like this.

Volume and flow diagnostics

• Today’s total volume heavy relative to the recent average and concentrated on up-swings. The intraday close-on-strength posture indicates buyers were active into the bell.
• On-balance volume and Accumulation–Distribution both point up since Aug 8, consistent with net accumulation rather than distribution.
• Volume by price shows chunky participation between 3.20 and 3.60 over the last week; that forms a supportive node and potential springboard if tested.

Price action patterns

• Inside-day breakout: Aug 20 had a narrower range versus Aug 19; today took out that inside high and held above it, a classic trend continuation trigger.
• Bullish engulfing of the prior day’s real body: Today’s body opened below yesterday’s close and closed above yesterday’s open. This adds conviction to the reversal off 3.06–3.22 support.
• No evident exhaustion wicks into the close; the final hour held 3.58–3.61.

Fibonacci and harmonic levels

• From Aug 19 high 4.10 to Aug 20 low 3.06
  • 38.2 percent: 3.46 (reclaimed and held)
  • 50 percent: 3.58 (settled above)
  • 61.8 percent: 3.70–3.71 (tagged intraday and rejected modestly). A sustained break above 3.71 should unlock 3.95–4.10 retests and possibly a 1.272 extension near 4.38 in a squeeze scenario, though that is beyond the 24h base case.
• From the July spike high 4.97 to the late July low 1.84
  • 50 percent: 3.41 (already reclaimed and back-tested)
  • 61.8 percent: 3.78. This aligns with the Aug 18 close, reinforcing 3.78–3.85 as a meaningful supply shelf.

Pivot points (Classic, based on today’s H 3.71, L 3.13, C 3.60)

• Pivot P ≈ 3.48
• R1 ≈ 3.83, R2 ≈ 4.06
• S1 ≈ 3.25, S2 ≈ 2.90 These levels map well to the identified S R clusters and give confluence to the 3.80s as first upside magnet and 3.25–3.35 as first-line defense on dips.

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Today’s session VWAP tracked in the 3.55–3.56 area into the close; price reclaimed and held above it during the afternoon. Dips to VWAP have been bought.
• An anchored VWAP from the Aug 20 low clusters near 3.45–3.50, while an anchor from the Aug 14 pivot low sits lower near the mid-3.3s. These provide dynamic supports beneath spot.

Market profile microstructure

• Point of control today around 3.58–3.60 with a value area roughly 3.53–3.64, indicating fair value migrated higher throughout the session. Initiative buying above value into the close is a constructive tell for next-day continuation.

Wyckoff framing

• Structure resembles a re-accumulation range after the July markup: selling climax in late July, automatic rally early August, secondary test around 1.85–1.95, then higher lows leading to a sign of strength into mid-August. Today’s inside-day break looks like a jump across the creek within the smaller near-term range. A back-test into 3.50–3.56 would be a typical last point of support before markup continues.

Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• Provisional count from the Aug 8 low 1.95: Wave 1 up into 3.17 (Aug 15), wave 2 shallow retrace into 3.04–3.06 (Aug 20), and the early stages of wave 3 now underway targeting a move through 3.71 toward 3.95–4.10. Invalidation of this count is below 3.06.

Risk diagnostics and what would change the view

• Overbought risk: RSI near 70 can produce brief shakeouts. Expect fast two-way trade around 3.70–3.78 if tested.
• Volatility risk: ATR near 0.6 means swings of 15 percent are possible; position sizing must respect this.
• Failure conditions in the next 24h: A decisive loss of 3.48–3.52 with acceptance below the daily pivot and VWAP would open a path to 3.35 then 3.25. A close back under 3.35 would neutralize the immediate bullish stance.

Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case continuation, probability 60 percent: Early dip to 3.50–3.56 is bought; price grinds through 3.70–3.71 and tags 3.85–3.95. Close or premarket print in the high 3.8s to low 3.9s.
• Range churn, probability 25 percent: Price oscillates between 3.48 and 3.71, unable to break out but holds higher lows. Neutral outcome.
• Bearish fade, probability 15 percent: Loss of 3.48 leads to a liquidity sweep toward 3.35 and possibly 3.25 before buyers reassert. Would delay, not necessarily kill, the trend unless 3.06 fails later.

Trade plan

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip into confluence support where risk can be defined tightly relative to today’s structure. Use the session VWAP 3.55 and the daily pivot 3.48 as the entry band, with a protective stop below 3.32–3.35 to account for a normal liquidity sweep without overstaying.
• Entry: 3.54 optimal (midpoint of the 3.50–3.56 demand band).
• Profit target: 3.95 for the 24h horizon, which sits just below the first major overhead supply and the pivot R1 area, allowing fills without requiring a full breakout to 4.10.
• Reward risk: From 3.54 entry, target 3.95 gives about 0.41 upside. A notional stop at 3.32 implies 0.22 risk. Reward risk ≈ 1.86, acceptable given trend context.
• Alternative momentum add: If price breaks and holds above 3.72–3.75 on volume, a breakout add could target 4.05–4.10 with a tight continuation stop back under 3.65.

Why buy rather than sell here

• Trend alignment across daily and intraday timeframes is up; pullbacks are being bid.
• Today’s inside-day breakout and bullish engulfing pattern increase odds of immediate continuation.
• Multiple confluences support a buy-the-dip approach: VWAP reclaim, pivot confluence at 3.48–3.56, Fibonacci 50 percent level recovered, MACD re-acceleration.

Key levels to monitor in real time

• 3.50–3.56: Dip zone and VWAP cluster. Want to see responsive buyers.
• 3.70–3.71: Breakout trigger. Above here, look for expanding volume and little resistance until 3.85–3.95.
• 3.35: First meaningful invalidation for the 24h momentum thesis.

Bottom line

• Bias: Bullish for the next 24h.
• Plan: Buy on a controlled pullback to 3.54 with a target at 3.95. If breakout occurs first, expect follow-through toward 3.95–4.05; if instead the dip overshoots and loses 3.35 on acceptance, step aside.

Note: This is a trading plan based solely on the provided price volume data and common technical frameworks. It is not financial advice and does not account for individual risk preferences or new fundamental catalysts that may emerge overnight.