OPEN coils under $5: setup for a pivot reclaim and retest of the psychological ceiling

Instrument: Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) As-of: 2025-08-26 close. Last trade ≈ 4.70 Timeframes analyzed: Daily (Apr–Aug), Hourly (Aug 25–26 intraday)

1. Price structure and context

• Regime shift/volatility expansion: After months of sub-$2 trading (pre-July), OPEN exploded mid–late August, printing an upside expansion day on 8/22 (H 5.08, C 5.01) on very high volume, followed by a blow-off/inverted hammer type day on 8/25 (H 5.87, C 4.54), then a stabilization day 8/26 (H 5.28, L 4.37, C 4.70). This sequence typically marks: (a) impulse up, (b) profit-taking/distribution spike, (c) digestion/absorption.
• Immediate range: 4.37–5.05 is the short-term range defined by 8/26 L and 8/22 C/nearby supply. The intraday spike to 5.28 on 8/26 was rejected, reinforcing resistance 4.95–5.05 (prior high/psychological $5). Support layer built 4.45–4.62 (multiple hourly reactions) and a deeper swing support at 4.37 (8/26 low, aligns with Fib 38.2% from recent impulse).

2. Volume and participation (Volume Profile, Accumulation/Distribution, OBV)

• 8/22: Upside expansion with strong closing strength (C near H) on very high volume → accumulation/institutional participation.
• 8/25: Massive volume with long upper wick → distribution/profit-taking into strength above 5.5–5.8.
• 8/26: Lower volume than 8/25 but still elevated; price built value 4.55–4.75 and closed higher than open → absorption at 4.5–4.7; supply above 4.9 absorbed partially.
• Intraday VWAP behavior 8/26: Price oscillated around a rough VWAP ~4.75; close at 4.70 is just below VWAP and below the daily pivot (see below). If early 8/27 reclaims VWAP/pivot, longs likely press for a re-test of 4.95–5.05. If rejected, a rotation back to 4.55–4.60 is probable.
• OBV/AD (qualitative): OBV trend up since mid-Aug; slight pullback 8/25; stabilizing 8/26. Net: accumulation bias intact after shakeout.

3. Trend and moving averages (SMA/EMA, multi-timeframe)

• Daily SMAs (approx): • 5D SMA ≈ 4.21 (rising) • 10D SMA ≈ 3.71 (rising) • 20D SMA ≈ ~3.0–3.2 (rising sharply) • 50D SMA ≈ ~1.1–1.5 (lagging far below, reflecting pre-breakout regime) Price (4.70) > 5D > 10D > 20D > 50D → strongly bullish stack; short-term momentum remains up.
• EMAs (qualitative): 8EMA > 21EMA > 50EMA; the slope of 8/21 turning up again after 8/25 pullback → momentum inflecting positively.
• Hourly: Sequence of higher lows into the close on 8/26 (4.37 → 4.48 → 4.61 → 4.66–4.70). Micro uptrend within the 4.37–5.00 range.

4. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: high 60s post 8/22; cooled to low 60s after 8/25–26. This is bullish but not overbought, allowing room to push toward/through $5.
• Hourly RSI(14): mid-50s to low-60s into close → positive momentum neutral-to-bullish.
• MACD (Daily): Positive line above signal since early Aug; histogram contracted during 8/25 pullback; starting to curl up again → momentum re-acceleration possible.
• Stochastics (Daily): Came off overbought; reset closer to mid-zone and turning up → supportive of another push higher.

5. Volatility and ranges (ATR, Keltner, Bollinger)

• Daily ATR(14) rough: ~0.60–0.80 given recent ranges; 8/26 true range was ~0.91 (5.28–4.37), indicating elevated volatility persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bandwidth expanded sharply on breakout; price is in upper half of the envelope after a healthy pullback. Not pinned to the upper band → room for a controlled grind higher without immediate overbought extremes.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± ATR): Price near upper/middle channel; mean reversion risk exists if $5 rejects again, but support density below 4.6 mitigates a full channel mean reversion in the next 24h.

6. Market structure, patterns, and candles

• Candlesticks (Daily): • 8/22: Bullish wide-range close near highs (trend day). • 8/25: Shooting star/long upper shadow (seller’s strike above 5.5–5.8). Bearish warning but not a full reversal since follow-through selling failed to break 4.37. • 8/26: Small-bodied green within prior day’s body → bullish harami-type stabilization.
• Intraday (Hourly) 8/26: Two failed attempts to push below 4.45–4.50 followed by higher lows → constructive micro base. Into the last hours, price wedged under 4.70–4.75 with diminishing downside momentum.
• Pattern view: Short-term ascending triangle setting up between rising lows (4.37→4.48→4.61) and horizontal supply 4.95–5.05. Break > 4.95 likely targets 5.20–5.30.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 8/12–8/22 and 8/20–8/22)

• Swing A: 2.42 (8/13 close) to 5.08 (8/22 high) • 38.2% retrace ≈ 4.17 • 50% ≈ 3.75 • 61.8% ≈ 3.33 Price has only retraced to ~4.54 (close) and 4.37 (intraday 8/26), i.e., a shallow retrace above 38.2% of the larger leg → bullish continuation bias.
• Swing B: 3.22 (8/20 close) to 5.08 (8/22 high) • 38.2% ≈ 4.37 • 50% ≈ 4.15 • 61.8% ≈ 3.93 8/26 L = 4.37 precisely tags the 38.2% level and bounces → classic continuation behavior if the level holds.

8. Pivots and key levels (Classic pivots based on 8/26 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ (5.28+4.37+4.70)/3 ≈ 4.78
• R1 ≈ 5.20; R2 ≈ 5.69
• S1 ≈ 4.29; S2 ≈ 3.87 Interpretation: Price closed just below P. Early reclaim of 4.78 opens a measured run to R1 5.20. Failure → rotation toward 4.55–4.60 first, then 4.37 if pressure intensifies.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative, given regime shift)

• Daily: Price well above a likely rising cloud; Tenkan estimated ~4.6–4.7, Kijun ~4.3–4.4. 8/26 bounce around the Tenkan is supportive. Chikou above price → trend intact.
• Hourly: Price oscillating near/above the cloud with Senkou A rising → micro bullish while above ~4.60–4.65.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Phase: After an upthrust day (8/25), supply test on 8/26 did not break structure and demand stepped in around 4.5. Action resembles an absorption phase under resistance prior to another attempt higher. If 4.95–5.05 breaks on expanding volume, a Sign of Strength (SOS) toward 5.20–5.30 is likely.

11. Support/Resistance map and confluence

• Resistance: 4.90–5.05 (8/22 close/round number), 5.20 (R1/pocket above $5), 5.28 (8/26 spike), 5.70–5.90 (R2/8/25 wick supply).
• Support: 4.60–4.62 (intraday shelf), 4.50–4.55 (value area), 4.37 (swing low/Fib 38.2), 4.15 (Fib 50% of swing B), 3.93–4.00 (Fib 61.8%/psych round).

12. Risk assessment (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early retest and reclaim of pivot/VWAP (~4.75–4.78), grind toward 4.90–5.05; potential wick through $5 with sellers defending 5.05–5.10.
• Bull extension (25%): Impulse break and hold above 4.95–5.05 with volume → fast move to 5.20–5.30 (R1 and prior intraday pocket), possibly tagging 5.28.
• Bear rotation (15%): Failure at 4.75–4.80; fade to 4.60–4.62; if lost, test 4.50 and, on acceleration, 4.37. Deep downside extensions below 4.37 unlikely in next 24h absent new catalyst.

13. Trading plan synthesis and rationale

• Bias: Moderately bullish for the next 24 hours. Structure is constructive: higher lows intraday, shallow retracement vs the August impulse, stabilization candle (harami), price above fast MAs, RSI in the 60s, MACD curling up. Overhead $5 supply exists, so expect chop near that level; however, the path of least resistance is a retest of 4.90–5.05.
• Entry optimization: Two viable tactics: • Pullback buy near 4.62–4.66 (prior intraday shelf, near Tenkan/EMA cluster) to maximize R:R. • Momentum buy stop on reclaim of pivot/VWAP above 4.78 for breakout continuation. For a single optimal level considering current 4.70, the pullback limit ~4.66 balances fill probability with superior R:R into 4.98–5.05.
• Profit objective (24h): First target zone 4.98–5.05 (prior high cluster/psych $5). A print above $5 may stretch to ~5.20 (R1), but using ~$5 as a base TP is prudent within a 1-day horizon.

Forecast (24h): Expect a drift higher toward $5, with intraday dips likely bought above 4.55. Key trigger is a sustained reclaim of ~4.75–4.78. A decisive hourly close > 4.95 opens 5.20 quickly; a loss of 4.60 risks a sweep of 4.50 and a retest of 4.37 before another attempt up.

Decision: BUY (Long) on a tactical pullback. Open (limit): 4.66 Take-profit (close): 5.02 Rationale: Enter near intraday support where buyers previously defended; exit into the well-defined supply shelf at ~$5 where rejection risk increases. This aligns with the pivot map (P=4.78, R1=5.20) and respects the immediate supply/demand landscape.