OPEN: Setting Up a Buy-the-Dip Rebound From the 8.05–8.25 Support Confluence

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Buy-the-dip setup into 8.05–8.25 support with a rebound toward 8.75–9.15. Expect early weakness, then mean‑reversion bounce.
• Key levels (derived from 9/22 H=9.45, L=8.32, C=8.38): Pivot 8.72, R1 9.11, R2 9.85; S1 7.98, S2 7.59.
• Confluence support: 8.05–8.25 (38.2% Fib from 10.52→4.02 at 8.04; S1 7.98; intraday low 8.20). Resistance: 9.10–9.65 (R1 9.11; 50% micro‑retrace to ~9.30; 61.8% to ~9.65).

Multi‑timeframe trend and market structure

• Long‑term: Uptrend intact. Price is well above the 20‑day SMA (~6.95). The July–September advance shows higher highs/lows, with explosive expansion post 9/11.
• Intermediate: Pullback within trend. Lower highs from 10.52 (9/11) → 10.21 (9/17 intraday close) → 9.94 (9/18) → 9.57 (9/19) → 8.38 (9/22) signal a short‑term corrective wave inside a larger uptrend.
• Short‑term (intraday 9/22): Persistent lower lows into the close and after‑hours print 8.25 indicate weak momentum into tomorrow’s open. However, price is approaching a dense confluence support cluster ~8.0–8.3.

Moving averages

• SMA(5) ≈ 9.40: Price (8.38) is below the short-term mean → near-term bearish pressure, ripe for mean reversion.
• SMA(10) ≈ 8.81: Price is marginally below → still only a shallow correction.
• SMA(20) ≈ 6.95: Price is well above → primary uptrend remains intact; pullbacks to ~8s are buyable in trend context.
• Read‑through: Reversion toward the 10‑day and pivot (8.7–8.9) likely if 8.05–8.25 holds on the first test.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 59–63 (est.): Off overbought, still above 50 → bullish regime with room to bounce before overbought conditions re‑emerge.
• Stochastic (14) ≈ 50–55% and Williams %R ~ −45 to −50: Neutral zone; neither extended nor oversold → supports a reactive bounce when price hits support.
• ROC(10) ≈ +43% vs. (5‑day) negative → medium‑term strength with short‑term pullback; classic mean‑reversion buy context.

MACD

• MACD remains positive on the daily (given strong advance) but has rolled over with a likely bearish histogram the last few sessions. This favors one more dip early next session before a counter‑trend bounce back toward the signal line. Expect a rebound to the 9.0–9.3 area to test for a fresh bearish cross failure or re‑acceleration up.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) ≈ ~1.0–1.1. Today’s true range (≈1.13) in line with regime.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): 20‑SMA ~6.95; given recent dispersion, upper band ~10.5, lower ~3.4 (broad). Current price sits in the upper half of the envelope after retracing from the upper band → corrective, not trend break. A 1xATR bounce fits inside bands.

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 8/27 low 4.02 → 9/11 high 10.52 (Δ=6.50)
  • 23.6%: 8.99 (acted as initial ceiling last week)
  • 38.2%: 8.04 (core support now)
  • 50%: 7.27 (deeper, only if 8.0 fails)
  • 61.8%: 6.50
• Micro swing (9/17 10.21 → 9/22 ~8.20): bounce targets
  • 38.2% ≈ 8.96
  • 50% ≈ 9.31
  • 61.8% ≈ 9.65
• Read‑through: First resistance cluster aligns 8.95–9.35; deeper resistance 9.65.

Ichimoku snapshot (daily approximation)

• Tenkan (9‑period mid) ≈ (HH10.87 + LL5.57)/2 ≈ 8.22 → price is modestly above/near Tenkan; buyers often defend this region in uptrends.
• Kijun (26‑period) likely much lower (legacy prices), so price remains above baseline; cloud likely supportive. Bias: corrective pullback to/through Tenkan followed by bounce.

Volume/flow and Wyckoff read

• Volume peaked on the 9/11 surge (>1.0B) and remains elevated but decelerating. The sequence from 9/17–9/22 shows distribution at highs followed by markdown into support. Into 8.2–8.0, look for a switch to absorption/accumulation. Today’s close near the lows with still‑high volume often gets a final follow‑through flush at the next open before reflexive buying.

Intraday levels and pivots (for the next session)

• Daily pivot P ≈ 8.72; R1 ≈ 9.11; R2 ≈ 9.85; S1 ≈ 7.98; S2 ≈ 7.59.
• Trade plan implication: Favor a buy limit near 8.10–8.20 (between Tenkan ≈8.22 and Fib 38.2% ≈8.04). Aim to scale out near pivot (8.72) and R1 (9.11). If momentum overachieves, extension to 9.30–9.65 possible, but R1 is the higher‑probability 24h target.

Candles and gaps

• 9/22: wide‑range red candle closing near low → continuation risk early. However, the multi‑day pullback forms a 3‑bar corrective sequence inside the larger advance. There’s a substantial gap from 9/10 close (5.86) to 9/11 open (7.61); current pullback only retraced to the shallow 38.2% zone, typical of bullish consolidations.

Statistical/mean reversion context

• Distance from 20‑SMA ≈ +1.43 (~0.8x an estimated 20‑day stdev), not extended; from 10‑SMA it’s −0.43. A 0.5–0.8 ATR snapback would place price in the 8.9–9.2 zone in 1 session, aligning with pivot/R1 and micro‑Fib retracements.

Elliott/Wave map (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 4 → ~6.65; Wave 2: ~6.04; Wave 3: into 10.5; Wave 4: current retrace into 8s (~38.2% of 3). Anticipate an early Wave‑5 attempt toward 9.6–10.0 after the 8.0–8.2 defense. In the next 24h, an initial Wave‑5 start often prints 9.1–9.3.

Risk management and invalidation (context for decision)

• Bullish scenario invalidates on decisive break below 7.98 (S1 and 38.2% cluster breach). If that fails, 7.27 (50% retrace) becomes the magnet; that’s beyond a 24h base case but defines the risk line.

24‑hour path expectation

• Pre‑open/first hour: One more probe lower into 8.05–8.25 (liquidity sweep of today’s low 8.20) as sellers finish.
• Midday: Bounce toward pivot 8.70–8.85. If breadth/flow cooperative, continue to R1 9.11 with spikes up to 9.30.
• Late day: If R1 rejects, settle 8.80–9.05; if impulse strengthens, 9.30–9.65 is stretch.

Conclusion

• Confluence of support at 8.05–8.25 with trend still bullish and oscillators neutral supports a tactical long. Target the first magnet at R1 ≈ 9.11 within 24 hours. Use a buy‑limit rather than chasing, to capture the likely early flush and optimize entry.