Short the Bounce: OPEN’s Slide Eyes 6.6 After a Stop-Run to 6.91

Instrument: Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) Timestamp context: Current price $7.09 as of 2025-09-23 21:00 UTC Horizon: Next 24 hours (1 trading day)

Executive summary

• Structure: A sharp post-spike downtrend is intact. Price broke multiple daily supports and printed a new swing low at 6.91 intraday on 9/23, closing near the lows at 7.09.
• Bias: Bearish into any strength. Expect a relief bounce into the 7.40–7.80 supply zone, then continuation lower to retest 6.90 with risk of an extension toward 6.55–6.65.
• Plan: Short a pop toward 7.45–7.55; target 6.58 (first take-profit) within 24h.

Step-by-step technical analysis (multi-method)

1. Price action and market structure (daily)

• Regime shift: After the 9/11 gap spike (high 10.70; close 10.52), the sequence transitioned to lower highs/lower lows: 10.21 (9/17), 9.94 (9/18), 9.57 (9/19), 8.38 (9/22), with a fresh low at 6.91 (9/23). This is a clean primary downtrend.
• Break of key support: 8.38 (9/22 close/low) failed decisively on 9/23, opening a liquidity pocket down to the prior shelf around 6.60–6.65 (9/05 close 6.65; cluster in early September). The 9/23 session tested 6.91 and bounced only modestly, suggesting sellers retained control.
• Candlestick character (9/23): Wide red candle from ~7.96 open to 7.09 close, range 6.91–8.10. Close in the lower quartile with only a small lower wick, indicating sustained intraday supply despite the late bounce. This is not a hammer; it’s a bearish continuation-type day.

2. Intraday structure (hourly, 9/23)

• Opening drive higher to 8.095 was sold quickly. Lower highs at 7.97 and 7.65 followed by a new session low at 6.91 into late afternoon. Last prints around 7.09–7.16. The sequence shows classic intraday trend down with weak closing rally.
• Supply zones identified from intraday swings: 7.35–7.50 (prior breakdown pivot), 7.80–8.05 (morning failure area). Expect sellers to defend these zones on any relief bounce.

3. Volatility and ATR context

• Recent true ranges have been elevated post-spike. Using recent days, a rough 1-day ATR around 0.90–1.10 at current prices (12–16% of spot) is reasonable. Within 24 hours, a move down into mid-6s is well within expected volatility if a bounce-fail sequence plays out.

4. Moving averages (directional filter)

• Short-term MAs (5–10 day, estimated) have rolled over sharply and are above price (approx 5D around ~9.0 by inclusion of last week’s closes; 10D also above). Price trading beneath downward-sloping short MAs is a trend-confirming bearish condition.
• Medium-term MA proxy: After the September spike, there hasn’t been enough time to flatten medium MAs; the slope remains down with price below. No bullish MA crossovers are evident.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Given the 33% drawdown from 10.52 to 7.09 in ~8 sessions, RSI is likely in an oversold cluster (<30). Oversold in downtrends often persists and produces “weak bounces into sells.” Expect a reflex rally but favor continuation.
• Stochastics: Also likely pinned low; can remain oversold. Look for a brief stochastic turn up on bounce toward 7.5–7.8 before rolling over.
• MACD: Signal line below zero with widening negative histogram through 9/22–9/23. That supports downside continuation; early signs of histogram deceleration may allow a 1–2 bar bounce before trend resumes.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Price is pressing the lower band on 9/22–9/23 (a band “walk”). Band walks typically imply trend persistence with sporadic mean-reversion pops to the 20-day basis (likely up near 8.5–9.0, well above market). Over the next 24h, a move to the mid-band is unlikely; a modest bounce to the lower band’s underside (approx 7.7–8.0) is more realistic before further weakness.

7. Volume analysis

• Post-spike distribution: Very high volumes on the run-up and in the subsequent selloff. 9/23 volume (~298M shares in dataset context) accompanied a breakdown day, suggesting conviction on the sell side.
• Intraday profile: The morning rejection above 8.00 with strong volume implies trapped longs above 7.80 who may sell into bounces, reinforcing the 7.40–7.80 supply band.

8. Support/resistance mapping (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 7.35–7.50 (broken intraday base), 7.80–8.05 (session failure zone), round number 8.00.
• Immediate support: 6.91 (9/23 low), 6.60–6.65 (early September pivot; prior closing shelf), 6.04–5.86 (deeper September bases; unlikely in 24h absent new catalyst, but reachable in a cascade scenario).
• Round numbers: 7.00 is a psychological magnet; breaks below often trigger stop-runs toward the next shelf (6.60–6.65).

9. Fibonacci analysis

• Recent swing: From 9/19 high 9.57 down to 9/23 low 6.91 is a 2.66 drop. A 38.2% bounce would target ~7.92; 50% ~8.24; 61.8% ~8.55. Given overhead supply, a 38.2% retrace (7.9 area) might cap any bounce over the next day.
• Extension mapping: Using 9/19→9/22→9/23 sequence, the 1.618–2.0 downside extensions project into roughly 6.6–6.6x and 6.2–6.3x zones from bounce pivots—aligning with the 6.60 shelf as the next logical magnet once 6.91 is compromised.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud overhead post-spike. Chikou lagging price below cloud. The full stack is bearish. Expect cloud resistance to suppress rallies; no bullish Kumo signals present.

11. Anchored VWAP and volume-at-price (qualitative)

• Anchored VWAP from the 9/11 gap day likely runs well above current price (mid/high 9s); price is decisively below AVWAP—bearish regime. Volume-at-price suggests thick supply nodes between 8.5–10; we are beneath that high-volume node, now traversing a lighter-liquidity area where moves can accelerate—hence the swift test to 6.91.

12. Elliott wave / harmonic flavor (heuristic)

• A 5-wave impulse down appears plausible from 9/17–9/23 with a potential minor wave-5 print at 6.91. That often leads to a corrective bounce (A–B) into resistance before another push lower (C). The 7.4–7.8 zone is a textbook area for that corrective high.

13. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag breakdown: The 9/18–9/20 consolidation failed and price accelerated lower through 9/22–9/23. The textbook expectation is a measured move equal to or exceeding the flagpole length; further downside into mid-6s aligns with this.
• Gaps: Large gaps remain above (8.8–9.8). In strong downtrends, gap fills are postponed; they act as overhead supply in the near term.

14. Probabilistic path for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early relief bounce toward 7.40–7.75; sellers defend; price rolls over to retest 6.90 and breaks to 6.60–6.70; day ends 6.70–6.85.
• Bullish alt (20%): Stronger squeeze to 7.90–8.10 (38.2% retrace) before fading; still likely closes below 7.40.
• Bearish alt (20%): Minimal bounce; straight breakdown below 7.00 to 6.50–6.60 early, then stabilization.

15. Risk management cues

• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 7.95–8.05 (hourly closes) would threaten the immediate short; acceptance above ~8.25 (50% retrace) would question the near-term bear case.
• Ideal entry: Into strength at 7.45–7.55 where intraday supply aligns with broken support and round-number gravity. This offers attractive reward-to-risk to the 6.55–6.65 target band.
• Suggested risk parameters (for planning): If short at 7.48, protective stop above 7.92–8.00; first profit zone 6.55–6.65 yields ~2:1 R:R. Trailing stop can be used after break of 6.90 to lock gains.

Conclusion The dominant downtrend, fresh support break, momentum configuration, and intraday supply overhead argue for selling bounces. Expect a pop into 7.4–7.8, then continuation to 6.6x within 24 hours. Strategy: Sell (short) a rally; target 6.58.

Forecast summary (24h)

• Expected intraday high window: 7.40–7.80
• Expected intraday low window: 6.50–6.70
• Expected daily close window: 6.70–6.85
• Path: Bounce-fail → breakdown through 7.00 → probe 6.6x