OPEN: Breakout–Retest Holds at 38% Fib — Set for a Push Toward 9.50

Comprehensive multi-technique analysis for OPEN (Opendoor Technologies) as of 2025-09-26 close

1. Market structure, trend, and context

• Regime: Since early September, OPEN transitioned from a high-volatility squeeze (peak ~10.52 on 9/11) into a broad consolidation with a higher-low base at 7.09 (9/23) and a subsequent rebound to 9.09 (9/25). Today (9/26) closed at 8.81 after flushing to 8.37 intraday—buyers defended the first major Fibonacci zone and reclaimed VWAP into the close. The higher-low structure remains intact above 7.09.
• Daily candle: Hammer-like (long lower shadow, close well off lows) within an emerging bull-flag retest zone. This often indicates dip-buying strength and potential continuation higher next session if the low is not breached early.
• Intraday tape (9/26): • Open 8.88, swift liquidity sweep to 8.43 (38.2% daily Fib; see below), then constructive higher-lows into 8.77–8.83 and a late-session hold near 8.80–8.81. After-hours drifted ~8.71. • Volume robust on the early selloff and through the reclaim—classic “flush and recover” pattern.

2. Key support/resistance and volume profile

• Support zones: • 8.35–8.43: 38.2% retracement from 7.09 → 9.21 swing and today’s defended low cluster. • 8.20: 50% retracement confluence with an intraday volume shelf. • 8.00–8.05: 61.8% retracement + psychological level. • 7.09: Major pivot low (must-hold for the bullish swing structure).
• Resistance zones: • 8.95–9.10: Prior supply band and round-number friction; multiple intraday rejections and previous day’s high area. • 9.50–9.60: Next measured move/swing target and volume air pocket. • 10.20–10.52: Prior swing high and 1.618 extension confluence (see Fibs).
• Volume profile: • HVN shelf 8.60–8.80: Price acceptance and two-way trade; acts as magnet/support on dips. • Secondary HVN ~9.05–9.10 (supply cap). A clean move through this pocket often accelerates. • LVN/air pocket 9.10–9.50: If 9.10 is reclaimed with volume, price can traverse quickly toward mid-9s.

3. Moving averages (approximations from provided series)

• 5-day SMA ~8.3: Price above—near-term momentum positive.
• 20-day SMA ~7.7–7.9: Price above—intermediate trend remains up.
• 50-day SMA ~5.5–6.0 and 200-day SMA much lower (legacy levels from summer): Both well below—primary trend strongly up post-squeeze.
• Implication: Pullbacks toward 8.2–8.4 remain buyable while price is above 20-SMA; structure favors buying dips over chasing breakouts unless volume surges.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely mid-50s after cooling from overbought on 9/11 and re-acceleration this week. Neutral-to-bullish; plenty of room to push higher without immediate overbought risk.
• Stochastics: Reset from prior overbought and turning up after today’s intraday reversal—bullish for next session as long as 8.35–8.43 holds.
• MACD daily: Positive histogram but flattening earlier this week; today’s reclaim suggests a potential re-expansion to the upside if we clear 9.10. A trigger above 9.10 would likely steepen the histogram again.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (qualitative): ~1.2 (given recent 1–2 point daily swings). Expect an approximate next-session range of 0.9–1.3.
• Expected 24-hour range: 8.45–9.45 with a bullish skew; a strong breadth day can stretch to 9.55–9.70 if 9.10 breaks early on volume.

6. Bollinger Bands and Keltner

• Bollinger (20,2): Mid-band near the 20-SMA (~7.8). Upper band likely ~10.1–10.3; lower ~5.4–5.6 due to elevated volatility. Price in upper third, consistent with a trending consolidation.
• Keltner: Price near upper envelope after today’s reclaim; no active squeeze—volatility still expanded from the September breakout.

7. VWAP analysis (intraday and anchored)

• Session VWAP (9/26): Reclaimed and held into the close—bullish intraday signal and often a precursor to next-session follow-through if premarket doesn’t gap below.
• Anchored VWAPs: • From 9/23 pivot low (7.09): Sits around the 8.6–8.7 cluster—today’s bounce respected this area, suggesting buyers remain in control above it. • From 9/11 spike high (10.52): Likely above current price; overhead reference aligning with 9.5–10.0 resistance band.

8. Volume/flow indicators

• OBV: Trending higher since 9/23; accumulation on up days outweighing distribution on down days.
• Accumulation/Distribution and CMF(20): Positive tilt—closes in the upper halves on key days with rising volume hint at net buying pressure.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; cloud likely thickening and rising post-squeeze—trend supportive.
• Tenkan (~8.8) ≈ today’s close; Kijun (~8.2) aligns with 50% Fib and key support. Tenkan > Kijun and price near/above Tenkan indicate constructive posture; pullbacks to Kijun (8.2) are high-odds supports.
• Chikou span above price cluster—supports bullish bias while above 8.2–8.4.

10. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing used: 7.09 (9/23 low) → 9.21 (9/25 high). Range = 2.12. • 38.2% = 9.21 − 0.382×2.12 ≈ 8.40 (today’s defended zone). • 50% = 8.21; 61.8% = 8.00. • Extensions: 1.272 ≈ 9.79; 1.618 ≈ 10.52 (matches 9/11 spike high). Strong confluence towards 9.8–10.5 on continuation.
• Takeaway: Defending 8.40 on a test is bullish; next impulse can target 9.5 first, then 9.8 extension if momentum accelerates.

11. Pattern recognition

• Bull flag / descending channel from 9/11 likely broke early 9/25; today looks like a classic breakout retest toward the 38.2% Fib and VWAP cluster, with a recovery close. This “breakout–retest–go” setup favors a push toward 9.3–9.6 next session if the open is above ~8.55 and dips are bought.
• Candlesticks: Hammer-like daily after a strong prior up day (9/25). On volume, this improves odds of upside gap-fill and continuation into overhead supply.

12. Risk management and trade structuring

• Bullish invalidation for the next session: Sustained trade below 8.35 (38.2% zone) increases odds of a deeper pullback to 8.20, then 8.00. A strict stop for short-term longs can sit 8.18–8.25 (below Kijun/50% Fib) if aiming 1R:1.5–2R to 9.50–9.60.
• Favor staged entries: Initiate near 8.60–8.70 (into the HVN/VWAP zone) with adds only on strength through 8.95–9.10. Avoid chasing >9.20 without volume expansion.

13. Next 24 hours – scenario map

• Base case (55%): Early dip buy 8.55–8.70, then grind through 8.95–9.10 and tag 9.35–9.55 by the afternoon session. Close 9.20–9.50.
• Bearish alt (25%): Break and hold below 8.40 leads to 8.20 test; bounce fades under 8.70. Range 8.05–8.80; close under 8.50.
• Squeeze alt (20%): Fast reclaim >9.10 at the open with strong volume; air pocket to 9.50–9.70; if breadth is strong, late day stretch toward 9.80.

Conclusion

• The confluence of defended 38.2% retracement, VWAP/HVN support in the high 8.5s, constructive OBV/CMF, and a hammer-like retest candle favors a Buy-the-Dip approach for a swing into the 9.3–9.6 resistance band in the next session. Risk is well-defined below 8.35–8.20.