OPEN: Reversal Ignites — Buy the Pullback for a Push Toward 8.58

Comprehensive multi-technique analysis for OPEN (Opendoor Technologies Inc) based solely on the provided data through 2025-11-10 22:00 UTC.

1. Market structure and regime map

• Phases observed:
  • Jul–Aug: explosive repricing from sub-$3 into $5, then $6+ with multiple high-volume expansion days.
  • Sep 11 peak at ~10.52, followed by a multi-week corrective downtrend into the Nov 6 swing low ~6.56.
  • Nov 7–Nov 10: sharp bullish reversal, large-range days with volume expansion, reclaiming the mid-$7s to low-$8s; after-hours print ~8.18–8.19.
• Implication: A classic corrective ABC lower into 6.56 likely ended, with a new impulsive upswing commencing.

2. Price action diagnostics (daily and intraday)

• Nov 10 intraday: gap-up from prior close 6.56 to open ~6.84, early liquidity sweep to 6.69 (even a transient 6.02 print on the 14:00 hour bar), then persistent higher highs: 7.57 → 7.92 → 8.12 → 8.24 (21:00 high) and AH ~8.19. Strong close near session highs signals demand dominance.
• Candle structure: wide-range bullish candle that engulfs multiple prior days’ bodies; small upper wick relative to range; follow-through after a Nov 7 reversal day (5.24–6.59 intraday range) indicates momentum shift.
• Break of minor descending trendline from late Oct highs: Closes above 7.65–7.97 cluster (Oct 29–31, Nov 3 pivots) confirm trend change on the short-term timeframe.

3. Key levels (confluence across methods)

• Supports:
  • 7.75–7.90: intraday pullback zone, near session VWAP cluster; reclaimed supply turned demand.
  • 7.50–7.60: intraday HLs and congestion; prior resistance shelf.
  • 7.00–7.10: psychological and prior pivot cluster (Oct 16–17).
  • 6.84 gap-up area (Nov 10 open), then 6.69 intraday low; 6.56 higher-timeframe swing low (Nov 6) as structural invalidation.
• Resistances:
  • 8.20–8.24: intraday high zone (Nov 10), immediate test area.
  • 8.50–8.60: Fibonacci 50% retrace and daily R1 confluence (see below), key near-term objective.
  • 9.00–9.05: 61.8% retrace and psychological round; aligns with prior Oct 7 pivot ~9.28.
  • 9.57–9.94: Sep 18–19 supply band; 10.20–10.52: major September resistance/high.

4. Moving averages (conceptual, trend-state vs exact prints)

• 20-day SMA/EMA: flattening to modestly rising; price reclaimed and closed above, a bullish tactical shift.
• 50-day: still slightly down/slack but price challenging from below; successful reclaim next could trigger momentum participation.
• 200-day: well below current price given July-Aug regime; medium-term structure remains bullish despite the recent correction.
• Read: Short-term bull trend reasserting, with pending confirmation on the intermediate MA stack upon sustained closes above ~8.3–8.6.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14): rebounded from likely low-30s (Nov 6) to mid-50s/low-60s region; room to run before overbought; indicates improving trend quality.
• Stochastics: strong up-cross from oversold into bullish regime; can remain elevated in trend—favor continuation over immediate mean reversion.
• MACD(12,26,9): histogram turning positive with signal-line cross imminent/underway; a typical early-cycle reversal signature.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) approximates 0.8–0.9 given the recent high-low spans; Nov 7 and Nov 10 delivered 1.3–1.4 ranges—volatility expansion consistent with trend inflection.
• Expect 24-hour range envelope ~7.70–8.60 under base case; a tail-risk extension can probe 8.90 if momentum accelerates.

7. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Price is riding toward the upper band; volatility just re-expanded after a contraction phase. In trending transitions, price often walks the band—favor buy-the-dip to mid-band rather than fading the upper band initially.

8. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (Nov 10) approximates mid-to-high 7.7s; price closed/AH above VWAP most of the afternoon—bullish order-flow tilt.
• Anchored VWAP from Nov 6 swing low likely sits ~7.4–7.6: price well above, confirming buyers hold cost basis advantage.

9. Volume analytics

• Nov 10 total volume heavy (213M on daily), with ascending price and strong late-session prints; positive volume-price relationship (accumulation).
• Prior reversal (Nov 7) also high volume—two accumulation days within three sessions strengthen the regime-change signal.

10. Fibonacci mapping (multi-frame)

• Major swing: Sep 11 high 10.52 → Nov 6 low 6.56; bounce levels from low:
  • 38.2%: 8.07 (just reclaimed)
  • 50%: 8.54 (key magnet near-term)
  • 61.8%: 9.01 (stretch target if momentum persists)
• Intraday leg (Nov 10): 6.69 → 8.24; a 38.2–50% pullback would be 7.63–7.47; shallow pullbacks into 7.85–7.90 indicate strong trend and align with dip-buy entry.

11. Pivot points (Classic) from Nov 10 H/L/C ≈ 8.24 / 6.69 / 7.97

• Pivot P ≈ 7.63
• R1 ≈ 8.58, R2 ≈ 9.18, R3 ≈ 10.13
• S1 ≈ 7.03, S2 ≈ 6.08, S3 ≈ 5.48
• Read: R1 at 8.58 aligns tightly with the 50% retracement; high-confluence resistance/near-term target.

12. Ichimoku (daily, conceptual)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ midpoint of 6.52–8.24 ≈ 7.38; price above Tenkan—bullish short-term impulse.
• Kijun (26) likely near mid of broader 6.23–10.7 range ≈ 8.4–8.6; price approaching Kijun resistance. A clean break above Kijun (~8.45–8.60 band) often triggers continuation toward cloud top zones near 9.0.
• Cloud: price likely re-entering/approaching; turning line above baseline is constructive.

13. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Probable completion of corrective C-wave at 6.56.
• Minor wave 1: 6.56 → 8.24 (+1.68). Anticipated wave 2: shallow retrace ideally 38.2–50% of wave 1 → 7.60–7.80; intraday demand showed up above 7.60, suggesting a higher-low carve near 7.85–7.95.
• If wave 3 launches from ~7.85, a conservative objective for the next session is the 0.5 retrace (8.54–8.60); full wave-3 extension scenarios (>9) exceed the 24h base case but define upside skew.

14. Pattern recognition

• Bullish engulfing-type reversal across multiple prior sessions.
• Break of descending channel from early Oct; retest-bounce likelihood at 7.80–7.95.
• Gap-and-go behavior with only partial gap fill (kept 6.84–6.69 range intact) supports buyers’ control.

15. Microstructure and liquidity

• Liquidity sweep to 6.69/6.02 on the 14:00 hour flushed stops; subsequent higher volume uptrend indicates strong hands stepped in.
• Strong close and post-close prints (~8.18–8.19) typically invite early-session follow-through, then a controlled dip as intraday participants anchor to VWAP.

16. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 7.85–7.95 (VWAP/HL cluster), buyers defend; push through 8.20–8.24, grind to 8.50–8.60 into R1/50% Fib. Close in 8.40–8.60.
• Bull case (25%): Minimal dip; swift break of 8.24, momentum extension into 8.70–9.00 (61.8% Fib) if volume remains elevated. Would likely need another high-volume expansion hour.
• Bear/mean-reversion case (20%): Failure to hold 7.75–7.80 leads to deeper test 7.50–7.60; trend thesis intact above 7.25. A loss of 7.00 would weaken the reversal, with 6.84/6.69 as next supports.

17. Risk management framing (for planning and validation)

• Invalidation for the bullish swing: sustained break below 7.25–7.30 (beneath recent HL stack) or a close back under 7.00; these would suggest the bounce is incomplete.
• Expected ATR suggests 0.7–0.9 intraday wiggle; entries must allow for volatility without crowding stops too tightly.

18. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple independent tools align: momentum turn (RSI/MACD), price reclaim of key pivots, strong accumulation volume, and confluence of near-term targets at 8.50–8.60 (R1 + 50% Fib + Ichimoku Kijun area). The setup favors a buy-the-dip approach rather than immediate breakout chasing.
• Tactical plan: Buy a pullback into 7.88–7.92 (optimal single level chosen below). Target 8.58 within the next 24 hours. This leverages mean-reverting micro-dip toward VWAP while riding the emergent up-leg toward the high-confluence resistance band.

Conclusion: Bias = Buy. Expect a controlled pullback early, then continuation toward 8.55–8.60.