OPEN at the 50% Line: Buy the $8.00 Dip for a Snapback Toward $8.70

Executive summary and next-24h call

• Bias: Moderately bullish for a tactical bounce within an emerging higher-low structure. Expect early dip probing the $8.00–8.05 demand, followed by recovery toward $8.50–$8.75 if $7.96 (50% Fib) holds on a closing basis.
• Plan: Buy-the-dip near $8.00–8.08. First resistance $8.48–8.56; extension to $8.65–$8.75 if momentum firms.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Regime shift: Since the November 6–7 pivot low at $6.56, price accelerated to a swing high of $9.37 on Nov 12, establishing a higher high relative to the late-October/early-November range (7.0–8.3). The subsequent pullback to $8.12 has so far respected a textbook 50% retracement, typical of a bull-flag/corrective pause.
• Swing map (daily): • Major high: $10.52 (Sep 11). • Recent impulsive leg: $6.56 (Nov 6–7) → $9.37 (Nov 12). • Current pullback: $9.37 → $8.12 (~13.3% off the high), contained above key supports.
• Higher time frame trend: Post-summer base and September breakout created a broader uptrend with expanding ranges and rising participation. Despite October’s chop, the November surge reasserted upside momentum. Current behavior is consistent with a bull market “reset” rather than trend failure.

2. Volume and participation

• Volume expansion on advances: Nov 10–12 rally days carried above-average volume, a positive accumulation signal. Pullback days (Nov 13–14) show contracting volume—classic corrective profile rather than distribution.
• Volume-at-price inference (from recent clustering): Heaviest recent transactions cluster around $7.9–$8.2 and $8.4–$8.6. Expect a battleground near $8.48–$8.56 (prior closes/highs), but also strong dip-buying interest as price approaches ~$8.00.

3. Key support/resistance and price levels

• Supports: • $8.00 round number confluence with 50% Fib ($7.97) of the $6.56→$9.37 leg. • $7.63–$7.65 (61.8% Fib “golden pocket” zone and late-Oct balance). • $6.56 (swing low/structural must-hold for the new leg).
• Resistances: • $8.48–$8.56 (recent close/resistance band; prior supply). • $8.90–$9.00 (psych level and minor supply). • $9.37 (swing high) → $10.00/$10.52 (major magnets if a trend day develops).

4. Fibonacci and measured moves

• From $6.56 → $9.37 (+$2.81): • 38.2%: $8.30 (initial reaction zone—already probed). • 50%: $7.97–$8.00 (current price slightly above; precise confluence level). • 61.8%: $7.63 (max healthy pullback for a trend continuation).
• Expectation: First reaction off 50% is typically a bounce toward the 38.2%/$8.30–$8.56 band. Sustained acceptance above $8.56 opens path to $8.9–$9.0.

5. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 5-day SMA ≈ 8.50 (quickly descending after the pullback); current $8.12 sits below, creating a short-term mean-reversion pull upward toward $8.40–$8.55 if sellers tire.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 7.74–7.75; price remains above, preserving the nascent uptrend and keeping buy-the-dip setups valid.
• 20-day SMA (approx) in the 7.7–7.9 area; being above the 20D while below the 5D implies a shallow pullback within a broader up leg—typical of bull flags.

6. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Neutral-to-constructive, roughly low-50s after cooling from overbought readings on Nov 12. This leaves room for a fresh upswing without immediate overbought constraints.
• Stochastic: Pulled back from high 80s toward mid-range, with potential for a bullish cross on any intraday strength—supportive of a 1–2 day rebound.
• MACD (12,26,9): Still positive from the Nov thrust, but histogram has contracted—momentum cooled, not reversed. A flat-to-rising histogram on Monday’s open would be an early go-signal for continuation.

7. Volatility and band signals

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near the 20D SMA ($7.8–7.9). After tagging upper band on Nov 12, price mean-reverted to the center-upper band area. Band width is elevated but stabilizing; a controlled contraction favors a grind higher unless lower band ($6.9–$7.1) is tested—which is not base case.
• ATR(14): Elevated (roughly $0.75–$0.90). A $0.50–$0.70 intraday move is reasonable; targeting $8.6–$8.7 from an $8.05–$8.10 entry is within one ATR, fitting a 24h tactical trade.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative read)

• Price likely above the cloud after the Nov surge; Tenkan-sen likely near ~$8.2 while Kijun-sen sits closer to $7.6–$7.8. A pullback toward/through Tenkan with Kijun below often produces buyable support. Span A > Span B bias remains constructive until price closes under the Kijun.

9. Parabolic SAR and trend-follow overlays

• After the sharp Nov 12 peak, SAR dots likely flipped above price during the pullback. A push through ~$8.35–$8.45 can trigger a SAR bullish flip, inviting trend-followers to re-engage—fuel for a squeeze toward $8.6–$8.8.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Nov 14: Small real body with long intraday range indicates indecision at a key retracement. Such candles at 50% retracement often precede relief bounces if the following session prints a higher low and clears the prior session’s midpoint (~$8.45).
• Pattern read: Developing bull flag/ABC correction. A shallow C-leg termination near $8.00 matches the “buy the 50%” motif; failure would likely probe $7.63, the golden pocket, before resuming higher.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: $6.56 → ~$8.1; Wave 2: minor pullback; Wave 3: extension to $9.37; Now in Wave 4 consolidation with typical 0.382–0.618 retracement. A Wave 5 attempt would target $9.3–$9.9. This framework supports a buy-the-dip stance unless $7.63 breaks decisively.

12. Microstructure and session timing

• Overnight prints (low-liquidity) show 8.11 → 8.16 drift—no stress. Into the next regular session, expect: • Early liquidity sweep to $8.00–$8.05 (fills resting bids, shakes weak hands). • If defended, a steady push into $8.40–$8.56 resistance. • Momentum extension possible to $8.65–$8.75 on a trend day, contingent on clearing $8.56 with volume.

13. Risk management framing (for context)

• Invalidation of the bounce idea: A firm break/acceptance below $7.96 (50% Fib) that accelerates toward $7.63.
• If $7.96 fails intraday but reclaims on close, the constructive setup remains viable; persistent trade below $7.63 would shift the 24–72h bias to neutral/bearish.

14. Cross-check with alternative methods

• VWAP (conceptual): Anchored to the Nov 6 pivot would sit below price; pullbacks toward $8.0 are attractive against that anchored VWAP uptrend.
• R multiples: Entry $8.06, target $8.68 (+$0.62). With a hypothetical stop near $7.82 (below 50% Fib and round), R ≈ 2.6:1—favorable for a 24h tactical swing.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• With multiple confluences at $8.00–$8.05 (round number, 50% retracement, recent value area) and a corrective-volume profile, odds favor a buyable dip and a push toward $8.5–$8.7 in the next session if $7.96 holds. The path of least resistance in the immediate term is a rebound within a broader uptrend resumption.

Actionable plan

• Decision: Buy (Long).
• Optimal entry: $8.06 (limit on a morning dip).
• Take-profit: $8.68 (first extension beyond $8.56 resistance, within 1 ATR; reassess if momentum is strong).