Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)

1. Long-Term and Mid-Term Trend Analysis

1.1. Price Structure & Trends

• Rapid Ascend: From early March (lows near $4.50) to mid-May ($12.87 peak), QUBT has surged nearly 185%. The trend since late March is decisively bullish.
• Recent Volatility: The stock experienced a sharp breakout on May 16 (daily candle: $10.53 open → $12.87 close, huge volume), with a subsequent retracement, closing at $11.83 on May 19, and currently trading at ~$11.51.
• Support Zones:
  • $8.00 – $9.20: Heavy consolidation and several retests; a clear price floor.
  • $11.20 – $11.50: Minor support emerging after today's price action.

1.2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Explosion: May 16 saw nearly 92M shares vs. average below 20M—confirming institutional interest & distribution spike.
• Declining Follow-up Volume: Trading volume after the breakout has decreased, indicating decreased buyer aggression, but still remains above historical averages.

1.3. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA (approximate): ~$8.20 (rising quickly).
• 200-Day SMA (approximate): ~$7.00.
• Current Price: $11.51 is well above both, signaling technical strength; however, the price is extended far above moving averages, increasing reversion risk.

2. Candlestick & Price Action Study

2.1. Key Candlestick Patterns

• Bearish Engulfing on May 19 and 20: May 20 saw a large upper wick (high $12.80, low $11.27, close $11.51), indicating strong intraday selling pressure. Previous bullish momentum has been met with serious resistance above $12.50.
• Today’s Lower-High Structure: Lower highs on the hourly candles and a sequence of red closes suggests exhaustion in the current upswing.

2.2. Gap Analysis

• Gap Up & Fill: On May 16, QUBT gapped higher and attempted to fill the gap from April ($8.00–$10.00). The bulk of the breakout has not been retraced, yet today’s session tested support at $11.27.

3. Momentum and Oscillators

3.1. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Estimated RSI: Recent parabolic move likely propelled RSI > 70 (overbought territory), which is confirmed by the high-velocity gains and price/volume divergence. The minor retracement since $12.87 helps cool off, but the RSI is likely still elevated (e.g. 60-65).

3.2. MACD Analysis

• MACD likely remains in bullish territory (above zero line), but the histogram is narrowing—signaling waning momentum and possible bearish crossover if price does not reclaim the $12 area quickly.

3.3. Stochastic Oscillator

• Signal: Near-term stochastics likely topped and are turning down from overbought (>80), supporting corrective price expectations.

4. Order Flow and Order Book Dynamics

• Sharp Sell-Off After Intraday Highs: Today’s session saw a rapid drop from $12.80 to $11.27, then an uncertain recovery back to $11.51.
• Weak Bids Below Current Price: Quick flushes through the $11.50 area signal weak buyer defense and susceptibility to further profit-taking.

5. Chart Patterns & Fibonaccis

5.1. Pattern Structure

• Parabolic Move → Blow-off Top: The $12.87 high followed by today’s sharp retracement and high-volume candle suggests a short-term blow-off top. Similar structures often see further pullbacks or sideways digestion.
• No Clear Base Formation Above $10.50: Recent price has no lengthy consolidation above $10.50, indicating fragile support; rapid gains are often retraced until a new base forms.

5.2. Fibonacci Retracement

• Measuring from May 14 low ($8.88) to May 16 high ($12.87):
  • 38.2% Retrace: ~$11.38
  • 50% Retrace: ~$10.88
  • 61.8% Retrace: ~$10.38
• Current price sits just above the 38.2% retrace.
• If $11.50 fails, $10.88 and $10.38 are likely magnet levels.

6. Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Has spiked post May 16 (biggest daily ranges in months), indicating increased volatility and looming reversal/mean-reversion potential.
• Bollinger Bands: The move above $12.50 likely breached upper Bollinger Band, often followed by mean reversion or a period of sideways movement.

7. Positioning & Sentiment

• Late Longs at Risk: Those who chased into $12+ are underwater and may add to selling.
• Short-term Sentiment: Cautious after volatility spike; further reversal/sideways action likely unless buyers reclaim $12.00–$12.50 fast.

8. Summary Table

Indicator	Signal	Interpretation
Moving Averages (50/200)	Bullish	Uptrend, but overextended
RSI	Overbought/Cooling	Watch for correction
MACD	Bullish/Narrowing	Momentum stalling
Volume	Bearish Diversion	Distribution likely
Candlesticks	Bearish Engulfing	Top/Correction signal
Fib Levels	Support at $10.88	Correction below likely
Volatility indicators	High	Warning: sharp moves ahead

9. Probable Price Scenario for the Next 8-24 Hours

• Primary scenario: Further correction or sideways consolidation with possible retests of $11.20 (minor support) and $10.90–$10.38 (stronger support, 50–62% fib retrace zone).
• Alternate scenario: Brief pop toward $11.90–$12.20 (to test overhead supply), then renewed selling as trapped longs exit.

10. Trade Setup & Risk Management

• Short Bias Justified: High probability of another leg down toward the $10.88–$10.38 support band.
• Stop Placement: If shorting, stop above $12.00–$12.10 (above hourly structure).
• Profit Target: Scale out near $10.90, more aggressive target at $10.40 (fib, prior resistance zone).

Conclusion

QUBT has likely completed a short-term blow-off. Technical signals (overbought oscillators, bearish candlestick and pattern structure, heavy supply above, and absence of confirmed support at this level) favor downside in the next session. The optimal trade is a short (Sell) opened at or near the current price, targeting the $10.90 zone, with high probability for continuation toward $10.40 should selling accelerate.

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Note: If the $10.88–$10.40 region does not hold, risk of deeper retrace toward the rising 50SMA ($8.20) increases, but this is a secondary probability.

Risk: Unexpected news or aggressive market-wide recovery could squeeze short sellers above $12.

Final Trade Plan

• Sell/Short QUBT at $11.51–$11.55
• Target: $10.40–$10.90
• Stop-loss: $12.10 (risk: $0.60–$0.65/share)

Position Size: Adjust to allow for volatility.