1. Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI)

Step 1: Trend Analysis

• Daily Chart Patterns:
  • RGTI experienced a sharp rally from late April through mid-May 2025, surging from ~$9 to over $11.50, with strong upward gaps and heavy volume – particularly notable on May 14th (over 132M shares) during the breakout.
  • Prior to this run-up, the stock traded in a consolidation/basing pattern for several weeks between ~$8 and $9.50, with declining volatility. Early March saw a capitulation low around $7.5 – $8.2, which formed a robust base.
  • There are three distinct upward impulses: early February, March, and most notably the one from May.
  • The trend over the last two weeks is decisively bullish with higher highs and higher lows.

Step 2: Candlestick Structure & Reversal Pattern Analysis

• Last session (May 15):
  • Immense volatility intraday. Opened at $11.395, traded as high as $11.925, closed at $11.54 on heavy volume.
  • The long upper wick on prior day (May 14) (high $12.39, close $11.64) suggests initial exhaustion after a parabolic move, but the May 15 session saw stable price action above previous support ($11.3-$11.4 region).
  • Candles for the past two days are not classic reversal structures (eg., bearish engulfing, doji at highs), but they do reflect momentum pause/consolidation with shallow retracement – a bullish signal after a strong move.

Step 3: Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

• Short-term EMA/SMA cross:
  • Price is well above its 5, 10, and 20-period moving averages (manual calc: 5-day SMA ~$10.6, 10-day SMA ~$9.7). That’s a sign of strong short-term momentum.
  • No sign of mean reversion yet, indicating continued trend potential.
• MACD (qualitative estimation):
  • With price accelerating, MACD would show a strong positive spread above the signal line; however, a histogram peak might indicate pending short-term cooling.
• RSI:
  • A move this strong likely pushed RSI into the 75-90 range for a short-term timeframe (overbought), but in strong momentum moves RSI>70 can persist.
  • Look for bearish divergence, but current price action suggests only momentum pause, not reversal.
• ADX:
  • Trend strength likely high (>30), confirming the directional move.

Step 4: Volume Analysis & Accumulation/Distribution

• Breakout Confirmation:
  • The surge in volume on May 14/15 confirms institutional participation and strong interest, validating the breakout.
  • Pullback on lower volume on May 15 suggests healthy consolidation rather than aggressive selling.
• OBV (On-Balance Volume):
  • Consistent volume accumulation over the last 4 sessions indicates ongoing buying pressure.

Step 5: Volatility Assessment (ATR)

• Average True Range (ATR):
  • Enormous ATR expansion from mid-$0.30-$0.50 to over $1 in the last 2 sessions, signaling volatility spike typical of breakouts.
  • Sometimes high volatility prefaces cooling-off, but so far the consolidation is price-stable.

Step 6: Fibonacci Retracements & Support/Resistance Mapping

• Immediate support:
  • Intraday low on May 15: $11.18. Prior session’s close: $11.64. The $11.20-$11.40 range is short-term support.
  • Major support: $10.60-$11.00 (yesterday’s gap region & recent breakout level)
• Resistance:
  • Intraday highs at $11.92-$12.00 (May 15) and $12.39 (May 14). Key resistance in the $12.00-$12.40 region.
  • If broken, next psychological level: $13.00.
• Fibonacci:
  • 23.6% retracement: ~$11.05
  • 38.2% retracement: ~$10.75
  • 61.8% retracement: ~$10.12
  • Pullbacks remained shallow (23.6-38.2%), showing bullish strength.

Step 7: Intraday (Hourly) Price Action/Patterns

• Recent Intraday Moves:
  • Fluctuating in a range between $11.45 and $11.74 since breaking out, with shallow dips consistently bought.
  • Small descending channel formed intraday ($11.92 high to $11.41), but consolidations at the upper end of the recent range are bullish.
  • No evidence yet of distribution; notable dip-buying intraday.

Step 8: Psychological & Order Flow Considerations

• Round Number Magnet: $12.00 is a psychological barrier; quick moves often occur after breach.
• Order book (inferred): With high recent volume, participants positioned for further upside; limited downside supply unless the stock slips below $11.20, where stops likely cluster.

Step 9: Risk/Reward Calculation & Trading Plan

• Bullish signals dominate: Trend, volume, breakout, and shallow retracements point to likely upward continuation after consolidation. A brief pause allows for new buyers.
• Entry Plan:
  • Ideal entry: On a dip near short-term support at $11.40-$11.45 (observed consolidation base & min of last two hourly candles)
  • Upside target: Retest/break of $12.00-$12.40 within the next 24-48 hours, in line with breakout measured move.
  • Downside stop: If price closes below $11.15 (close below today’s low & gap fill), trade thesis invalidated.

2. Final Synthesis

• While short-term indicators are overbought, structural signals (trend/volume/breakout/accumulation) favor continuation higher before any meaningful reversal.
• Therefore, BUY on slight dips for swing/short-term continuation move.