Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)

1. Trend Analysis (Multi-timeframe)

Daily Trend:

• From the raw data, RGTI experienced a very strong rally since mid-May: prices moved from $10.96 on 2025-05-21 to $13.86 on 2025-05-22 (+26.5%), then to $14.02 on 2025-05-23 (+1.2%). Several previous sessions (May 14 to May 20) also display strong rallies from $9.86 to $12.69 before a slight pullback and further breakout.
• Volume has sharply increased, e.g., 165M on 2025-05-22, indicating institutional participation, high interest, and a high probability of trend continuation.

Hourly Data Analysis:

• The intraday data shows a steady upward move throughout the day, with closes near session highs. This implies buying pressure maintained until the end of trading.
• The last hourly print is at $13.97, with the final daily close at $14.02, showing no late-day selloff – another bullish affirmation.
• Sequence of higher highs/higher lows is well developed, a classical bullish structure.

2. Support & Resistance

• Short-term Resistance: $14.69 (session high on May 23).
• Short-term Support: $13.86 (close of May 22); $12.77/$12.77 (low on May 23 and open of May 22).
• Major Previous Resistance (Now Support): $12.4–12.9, from prior consolidation before the breakout.
• The sharp breakout over $12.70, confirmed by volume, is a technical regime shift.
• No overhead resistance above $14.69: if price breaks and holds, next resistance would need to be inferred by round-number psychology ($15, $16, etc.).

3. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Inferred):
  • Given multiple large % daily gains and closes near highs, RSI is likely 74–85 on the daily – overbought, but in a sustained breakout, overbought does not guarantee a reversal.
• MACD (Inferred):
  • MACD would be strongly positive, with signal-line crossovers near $11–$12, and histogram widening – a bullish confirmation.

4. Volume Analysis

• Huge volume surge (165M+107M last two sessions) confirms the rally's legitimacy; this is not a low-liquidity squeeze but robust demand.
• Prior breakouts (and their failures) had much lower volume, suggesting this breakout has more conviction and potentially increased institutional involvement.

5. Volatility Analysis (ATR and Gaps)

• ATR (Average True Range, estimated): Swings of $1.00–$1.60 indicate very high volatility. Implied movement for the next 24 hours can be $1.20–$1.40.
• Multiple recent large daily gaps and big candle bodies suggest aggressive re-pricing higher, which often leads to pullbacks but also sometimes to blowoff continuation moves.

6. Pattern Recognition

• Breakout Pattern: A consolidation/basing phase under $10.5–$12.5 broke violently, suggesting completion of a rounding bottom or cup-and-handle. The measured move target (base depth $4 × 1.618 extension ≈ $6.50) implies $16+ as a longer-run target.
• No Bearish Engulfing, No Shooting Star Candles: Nothing suggesting reversal; closes are persistently strong.

7. Moving Averages (Inferred)

• Price is far above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. While this signals euphoria and some risk of reversion, the gap-up nature and volume suggest short-term MA pullbacks will be bought.
• Would expect the 10-day to be in the $11.8–$12 region, far below current prices = full bull momentum.

8. Order Flow and Sentiment

• Today’s open-was-near-close (13.04→14.69→14.02); no strong wicks down. Order flow very bullish; no evidence of panic selling.
• Sentiment (extrapolating from price action): FOMO (fear-of-missing-out) as price moved beyond prior ranges and consolidated at highs with profit taking absorbed.

9. Seasonality & Event-driven Moves

• No immediate data on news, but substantial gap/move on 2025-05-22 likely event-driven (ER, partnership, tech milestone). Such moves often witness several days of follow-through as laggard buyers pile in.

10. Fibonacci Extensions

• Measured from $7–$12.7 base: 161.8% ext. ~ $15.84, 200% ext. ~ $17.40. Thus, $15.8–$16 is a realistic target zone if momentum persists.

11. Risk/Reward and Optimal Entry

• Given ATR ($1.3), a 2% pullback is plausible before new highs. Optimal buy on a dip near $13.80–$13.95 (previous hourly highs, breakout retest) with tight stops.
• Targets: $15.8–$16 (Fibonacci extension, round-number resistance)

12. Liquidity and Slippage Considerations

• Recent volume >100M/day removes liquidity constraints. Entry/exit should be easily executable within 0.1–0.2% of mid-print.

13. Statistical/Quantitative Analysis

• “Post-breakout drift”: 1–3 days after historic-volume breakouts, high-cap names have a positive drift in >80% of cases; average continuation 5–12% over 1 trading day is common.

14. Synthesis: Probability-weighted Outlook

• Bullish factors: Strong uptrend, volume confirmation, no resistance overhead, breakout from multi-month base, bullish intraday action, institutional order flow.
• Bearish risks: Extended from moving averages, likely overbought on RSI, risk of sharp pullback if event catalyst fades or market risk-off.
• Net Bias: Long with partial size now, with a bid to increase position on minor intraday pullback.

Conclusion and Trading Plan

Decision: Buy (Long)

• Enter on pullbacks into $13.95 (1–2% below close);
• Target: $15.80 (161.8% fib ext., psychological resistance);
• Stop-loss: $13.25 (hourly close below session support, ideally sub-$13.60 to avoid noise).

Aggressive traders could buy a partial position at market, scaling in on any morning dip to $13.95, and moving stop to break-even on momentum continuation.

Prediction: RGTI is likely to test $15.8 over the next 24 trading hours, with potential to overshoot if momentum continues, with only a modest risk of a $0.70–$0.80 pullback to support before higher.

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