RGTI: Post-Spike Exhaustion—Short Setup as Buyers Lose Momentum After Parabolic Run

Step 1: Trend Analysis

Medium & Short-Term Trend

• Daily Chart (3-Month View): RGTI has shown strong volatility in the past four months, with a notable surge in May followed by considerable retracement. The sharp rise from ~$8.50 in mid-May to a high of $15.30 by May 27, then a significant correction to ~$12 area, establishes an extremely volatile recent history.
• Recent Days: After bottoming near $10.90 (June 5), price has recovered sharply, now back above $12.50. This demonstrates recovery strength.
• Intraday (June 11) Chart: Large upside thrust during the 13:30–14:30 session (from $12.19 closing at 13:50 to a high at $13.56), followed by an immediate fade to $12.83, and then ranging between $12.1–12.7.
• Current Price Context: The last close ($12.52) sits at the upper end of June’s range, challenging short-term resistance, while the pullback after the intraday spike to ~$13.50 suggests overhead supply remains significant.

Step 2: Volume Analysis

• Massive Volume Confirmation: June 11, 177M shares, against regular volumes of 20–70M. This is a clear distribution/accumulation day.
• Intraday Volume: Surge during spike, then volume tapers off as price settles—often a sign of exhaustion after an initial run-up.
• Previous High-Volume Days: Major spikes in May 22–23 and May 14. Each saw price advances that were unsustainable and quickly retraced, suggesting speculative activity and profit-taking are strong above $14.

Step 3: Technical Indicators

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimation due to Lack of Raw Data: Given the sharp run-up and recent consolidation, RSI is likely hovering near overbought (65–70). The fast recovery from oversold at ~$10.90 up to $13.50 intraday suggests momentum is stretched and corrective risk is high.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Short-term MACD likely bullish given strong momentum upward, but both momentum and price are vulnerable to reversals given recent volatility.

Bollinger Bands

• Current Price Location: After piercing the upper band during the $13.56 spike, price has retracted inside the bands, indicating that the local upswing was overextended and likely due for mean reversion.

Moving Averages (20, 50, 200 SMA/E)

• 20-Day SMA: Based on chart, likely between $11.80–12.10, which is now just below the actual price. This suggests the move is stretched but only slightly above short-term trend support.
• 50 & 200-Day: With the explosive moves, both averages are likely below current price ($10.50 and $9.50 est.), suggesting longer-term uptrend, but the short-term move is detached from longer-term equilibrium.

Step 4: Price Patterns

Double/Multiple Top Patterns

• May Highs: Two rally maxima at $15.30 and $14.75, followed by lower highs. Lacking evidence price wants to break these highs soon.
• Intraday Selloff at $13.56 (June 11): Fast rejection above $13.50 coupled with the large volume indicates seller pressure—potential formation of a short-term swing high.

Key Support/Resistance

• Immediate Support: $12.10–12.20 (recent pivot and 20-day average).
• Resistance: $13.50 (intraday high), then $14.10 (previous high), then $15.30.

Step 5: Candlestick Patterns & Order Flow

• June 11: Long upper shadow on the hourly/daily bar, reflecting aggressive profit-taking above $13.50. Sellers emerged strongly above $13, overwhelming demand after the spike.
• Recent Sessions: Alternating large up and down bars, wide ranges and long tails—signs of uncertainty and potential distribution.

Step 6: Statistical Measures & Volatility

• ATR (Average True Range): Last 10 days, average daily range is $1.1–$1.8, currently above typical ranges, suggesting that volatility is extreme. Probability of sharp retracement on further extension is elevated.

Step 7: Sentiment & Psychological Factors

• Gap Patterns: June 11 opened with a gap up, which was rapidly filled and reversed intraday—a classic exhaustion gap sign.
• Behavior after Parabolic Moves: Previous similar run-ups (May 22, May 14–15) led to multi-day consolidations and/or sharp pullbacks.

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracement

• May Low to May High: Major swing ($8.90 – $15.30): 38.2% retrace is $12.75, 50% is $12.10. Current price has hovered near and faded from these marks—implying resistance at $12.75+ and possible further pullback.

Step 9: Multiple Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Context: The recent move is entirely retraced within one week, forming an outside reversal candle on the weekly structure. Momentum is high but unsustainable, and typically signals local tops.

Step 10: Synthesis, Probability & Trade Plan

• Longer-term uptrend, but current move is overextended and displaying corrective signals.
• The attempted breakout above $13.50 failed, with selling pressure and high volume—a key shorting signal.
• Short-term, the odds favor a return to equilibrium around the $11.80–12.10 area, possibly deeper ($11.00) if volatility increases.
• Risk/Reward: Shorting above $12.50, with a profit target near $11.30–$11.00, gives a favorable ratio, provided stop is managed above $12.85–13.10.

Conclusion: All tools—trend, volume, price action, volatility, order flow—support a short bias for the next 24 hours, looking to capitalize on a corrective/mean reversion move.