RGTI: Parabolic Surge Meets Heavy Supply — Set Up To Sell The Bounce Into Pivot

Comprehensive multi-method technical breakdown for RGTI (daily timeframe, last close $43.92 on 2025-10-10)

1. Price action and structure

• Regime shift: From a multi-month base (~$11–$16 in Jun–Aug), RGTI detonated higher from mid-Sep, peaking intraday at $49.13 (10/10). That is ~+230% off the Aug 20 swing low ($13.97) within ~7 weeks — a classic parabolic advance.
• Recent sessions: 10/07–10/10 featured extreme ranges and record volume. 10/08 printed a high-volatility spinning top (indecision), 10/09 broke to new highs and closed strong, then 10/10 produced a wide-range bearish candle (open $47.83, high $49.13, low $43.89, close $43.92), closing near the day’s lows after making a new high — a momentum stall with strong supply presence.
• Key levels: Resistance cluster $46.0–$49.0 (multi-day highs, supply); supports $43.2–$43.9 (10/08 close/10/10 low area), $41.7 (10/06 close), $40.1 (10/03 close), $38.4 (10/06 low), $35.4 (10/02 close).

2. Volume and candle diagnostics

• Volume expansion: Successive breakout days (9/18–10/10) show outsized volume; 10/09 and 10/10 both printed heavy turnover with opposing outcomes — a distribution signature (buyers exhausted into strength, sellers active into highs).
• Candlestick patterns: 10/10 resembles a bearish long upper shadow/near outside bar relative to 10/09; combined with 10/08 indecision, the last three candles imply a local top attempt. Not a textbook evening star, but functionally similar: a strong advance → indecision → strong reversal day.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 43.98; price ~$43.92 (slightly below), signaling very near-term momentum loss.
• 10D SMA ≈ 38.46; price well above (trend still bullish on short swing basis).
• 20D SMA ≈ 32.69; price far above (primary daily uptrend intact).
• 50D SMA (implied) far lower (~mid-teens), confirming a powerful primary trend. However, distance from 20D/50D implies susceptibility to mean reversion.

4. Momentum oscillators

• 14-day RSI ≈ 75 (overbought) even after the 10/10 selloff. Elevated RSI with a reversal candle increases odds of further near-term cooling.
• Stochastics (qualitative): rolled off extreme readings (>90) toward the 70–80 band — fading momentum.
• MACD (qualitative): well above zero; histogram likely peaked around 10/07–10/09 and is curling down — early bearish momentum inflection while MACD remains positive.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20D Bollinger: mid-band ≈ 32.7; upper band estimated ≈ 44.7 given recent volatility. 10/09 close ($47.11) likely outside/at the upper band; 10/10 close ($43.92) tucked back just under the upper band. Classic mean-reversion signal after band tag/break.
• ATR(14) (est.): ~5.0 (recent daily ranges 5–6). Expect multi-dollar intraday swings to persist next session.

6. Fibonacci mapping (swing low to current high)

• Using 9/3–10/10 leg (L≈$14.94; H=$49.13; range $34.19):
  • 23.6%: ≈ $41.06
  • 38.2%: ≈ $36.06
  • 50%: ≈ $32.07
  • 61.8%: ≈ $27.06
• With 10/10 close at $43.92, price remains above the 23.6% retrace. A typical wave-4/style pullback often probes the 23.6–38.2% zone; thus $41–$36 is a relevant demand band if selling extends beyond the first supports.

7. Pivots for the next session (classic, derived from 10/10 H/L/C)

• Pivot (P) ≈ 45.65
• R1 ≈ 47.40; R2 ≈ 50.89
• S1 ≈ 42.16; S2 ≈ 40.41
• Trading playbook: In downshifting momentum regimes, rallies into P/R1 tend to fade; S1/S2 are magnet/support zones for profit-taking.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is far above the Kumo; primary trend bullish. Tenkan (9-period mid) likely around low-to-mid 40s; Kijun (26-period mid) ~low 30s. A close below Tenkan would often trigger a mean-reversion drift toward Kijun over coming days. 10/10 settled near Tenkan — next session’s battle line.

9. Elliott wave lens (heuristic)

• Impulsive 5-wave feel from late Sep: wave-3 blow-off into 10/09–10/10; 10/10 may be initiating a wave-4 corrective phase. A shallow wave-4 often respects 23.6–38.2% retracement (i.e., $41–$36). For the immediate 24h, the shallow portion ($42–$41) is the first destination.

10. Regression/mean-reversion context

• Price Z-score vs 20D mean likely > +1.5 even after the drop; tendency is to bleed back toward the upper band/mid-band area in stages. Given ATR~5, a 1–2 ATR pullback into $42–$41 is plausible without breaking the larger uptrend.

11. Order flow/level confluence

• Confluence of technicals near-term: Pivot ≈ $45.65 aligns with prior intraday congestion and under the $46–$49 supply shelf; S1 ≈ $42.16 sits on the $42–$43 shelf. Fibonacci 23.6% ≈ $41.06 is just below S1, creating a layered demand zone $41–$43.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early bounce toward $45–$46 (pivot zone), sellers reassert, fade to $42–$43 with spikes possible to S1 ($42.16). Day closes in the $42–$44 band.
• Bull squeeze (25%): Strong gap/drive through R1 ($47.4) toward $48–$49; supply caps the move; risk of another reversal bar if wicks reappear. Invalidation of short-term bearish view is a firm hold above ~$46.5–$47 on strong breadth.
• Bear extension (15%): Weak open, swift test of S1 ($42.16) and probe toward $41 handle (Fib 23.6%). Deep extension to S2 ($40.4) needs a risk-off tape or additional negative catalyst.

13. Synthesis and edge

• The primary uptrend is intact, but the combination of: overbought RSI (~75), long upper-shadow reversal day on heavy volume, re-entry into Bollinger envelope from an upper-band break, and a pivot sitting above price tilts the next 24h toward a sell-the-bounce setup.
• Risk/reward: Shorting strength into the pivot/R1 band to cover into S1 provides favorable expectancy while respecting the broader uptrend (i.e., tactical short within a strategic uptrend).

Decision: Sell (Short Position) for the next 24 hours.

Execution plan

• Optimal entry: Use a limit sell on a bounce near the daily Pivot ≈ $45.6 (also beneath $46–$49 supply). This aligns with the sell-the-rip play in a fading-momentum day.
• Target (take profit): $42.2, just above S1 ($42.16) to increase fill probability; aligns with the $42–$43 shelf. If momentum accelerates, a secondary stretch target would be ~$41.1 (Fib 23.6%), but the primary 24h TP is $42.2.
• Invalidation (contextual, not an order here): Sustained acceptance above ~$46.7–$47.4 (through Pivot and R1) weakens the short thesis and risks a retest of $48–$49.

24h Outlook Summary

• Expect initial bounce attempts to meet supply in the mid-45s; downside magnet at $42–$43. Volatility remains high (ATR~5); wide intraday swings likely. Tactical short favored for the next session.