Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

1. Trend and Price Action Analysis

• Long-Term Trend (Daily):
  • From Jan to early March 2025, RUN has been in a pronounced downtrend, falling from around $9.00 to sub-$6.00 territory. This trend is marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows until breaking that pattern slightly in mid-March.
  • Mid-March to early May: Struggled to reclaim upward momentum, trading mostly sideways, oscillating between $6 and $7.50, with several failed bounces.
  • Mid-May: Massive volatility spike — dramatic breakout from sub-$8 levels, surging to above $12.50 (over +50% in mere days), then rapid retracement back below $7.00.
• Short-Term (Intraday):
  • On May 22, a colossal gap down occurred: Closed May 21 at $10.66, then opened May 22 at $6.80, plummeting as low as $5.87, then rebounding toward $6.78; ultimately closing at $6.71.
  • Volume was extremely elevated (90M+), signaling a capitulation event or reaction to major news (e.g., earnings or regulatory).

2. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major daily support is at $6.00 (the March 2025 bottom) and $5.87 (May 22 low). These levels held during panic sell-offs.
• Short-term resistance appears at $6.70-$6.80 (today's rebound high and recent closes), with further resistance at $7.40-$7.50 range (prior April-May highs and breakdown zone).
• The $8.00-$8.50 area (gap origin) now acts as a major overhead hurdle.

3. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Analysis

• May 22's candle (giant wick down, closing significantly off lows) strongly resembles a "hammer" — a classic reversal/short-term exhaustion pattern, especially after a catastrophic single-day sell-off. Suggests bears are losing steam short-term.
• However, the preceding candle (May 21) was a giant bearish engulfing, indicating massive distribution before the crash.
• No well-formed bullish reversal pattern confirmed yet, but today's price action is a classic candidate for at least a dead cat bounce scenario.

4. Volume & Volatility

• Volume on May 22 exceeded 90M vs an average of ~10-20M, highlighting panic/liquidation + institutional activity.
• ATR (Average True Range) has spiked, indicating exceptional volatility — favorable for short-term traders, but increases risk for directional trades.

5. Moving Averages

• 20-day and 50-day SMAs (calculated roughly): Both above current price (20DMA near $8, 50DMA ~ $7.50), reinforcing strong overhead resistance and confirming short/intermediate downtrends.
• Price is extremely extended below the 20DMA, historically a sign of a near-term mean reversion or relief rally.

6. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Based on the price drop and rapid oversold move, RSI is likely in the 20-30 range — extreme oversold, signaling a technical bounce is likely, but not guaranteed.
• MACD: Given the waterfall decline, MACD lines have likely crossed bearishly and are deeply negative. However, fast declines are often followed by violent mean-reverting snapbacks.

7. Technical Gaps

• The gap from $10.6 to $6.8 (May 21 → May 22) stands as a massive overhead gap; stocks often attempt to fill at least part of such gaps post-panic.
• Possible bounce toward the $7.40–$8.00 region if oversold rally materializes.

8. Order Book/Price Reactions (Intraday)

• Intraday, after the panic low at $5.87, price rebounded multiple times to $6.70/$6.78.
• Buyers are absorbing panic selling below $6.20; sellers appear above $6.70–$6.80.

9. Comparative Analysis & Sentiment

• Given the high volume, this looks like event-driven selling (earnings/reactive news) — often followed by 1–2 more panic flushes or short-squeeze rallies on oversold technicals.
• Sentiment is extremely bearish; the setup for a counter-trend (short squeeze/oversold bounce) is historically favorable, but the primary trend remains down.

10. Risk/Reward and Trading Strategies

• Mean Reversion Play: After such a steep fall, mean reversion traders often buy near capitulation lows with tight stops (>5%).
• Fade the Bounce: If price fails to reclaim $7.00–$7.20 in next few hours, sellers may reassert control and push for retest of lows.
• Breakout/Fakeout: Should price break back over $6.80 (today's intraday high and close), odds of a squeeze to $7.40–7.50 increase.

---

SUMMARY & DECISION LOGIC:

• The primary trend is DOWN (confirmed on all timeframes), but price action today (hammer candle, ultra-high volume, deep oversold indicators) signals a likely technical bounce or oversold rally.
• Optimal risk/reward favors a short-term tactical BUY (long position): try to capture a rebound toward $7.40–$7.50, with stops just below $6.20 (today's intraday support).
• Longer-term, only aggressive swing traders should engage; until there is confirmation back above $8, this is a countertrend play only.

---

Optimal Entry & Exit:

• Open Price (Buy): Near current levels – ideally on a dip in $6.65-$6.71 window.
• Take Profit (Close Price): $7.45 (first resistance and early May congestion zone).
• Stop Loss: $6.18 (just below today's post-gapped panic low, to avoid deeper liquidation).

Final Recommendation:

• Buy (Long Position) at $6.71, close at $7.45.
• Rationale: Highly oversold conditions, reversal hammer on record volume suggest a high-probability technical rebound in short-term, despite persistent bear trend overall.