Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Sunrun Inc. (RUN) as of 2025-05-24

1. Trend Analysis

• Long-term Trend (YTD): The stock started 2025 trading above $10, but experienced an extended and sharp decline, reaching a low of $5.54 by the end of March. A modest recovery followed, but prices failed to reclaim the $10 handle after early May’s volatility. Recent price action displays higher volatility punctuated by sharp reversals.
• Intermediate Trend (Recent 2 Weeks): From mid-May, RUN saw a rapid surge from $8.50 (May 8) to a $13.23 high (May 13), staging a classic short squeeze and post-earnings rally. However, RUN could not sustain those levels, rapidly selling off to sub-$7.00 on May 22.
• Short-Term Trend (Last 3 Days): On May 22, there was an extraordinary spike in intraday volume and volatility, with the price gapping down from $10.65 (May 21 close) to open $6.80 (May 22), hitting a low of $6.16 before stabilizing and closing at $6.71. May 23 showed a minor rebound, closing at $6.88.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike (May 22): 91,268,800 shares traded, significantly above any historical daily volume for the year, suggesting panic selling or forced liquidation (potential news or earnings trigger present). The next day’s volume of 50,274,600, while lower, remains extremely elevated. This indicates distribution with a scramble for liquidity, often marking capitulation.
• Preceding Sessions: Prior days (May 20–21) showed an average of 13–16M shares, while most of April ranged 7-20M, making the recent volume highly anomalous.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Key Support Zones:
  • $6.70–$6.85: Site of recent consolidation post-collapse.
  • $6.00–$6.16: Intraday panic low on May 22.
  • $5.54: YTD and 2025 swing low.
• Key Resistance Zones:
  • $7.28–$7.47: Pre-gap support and Friday’s (May 23) rejection.
  • $8.44–$8.70: Gap area from May 8 surge; near prior congestion.
  • $10.60–$11.20: Breakdown gap on May 22. Above lies the major resistance from previous rally high.

4. Candlestick Patterns and Price Structure

• Bearish Engulfing (May 21): A strong reversal candle, closing on its low.
• Gap Down (May 22): Massive downward gap and extended lower wick. The close above the panic low and consecutive higher close on May 23 may imply initial short covering, but not bullish reversal.
• Small-bodied candles in last few hours of intraday chart suggest indecision; clear directional traction absent.

5. Momentum and Oscillator Analysis

• RSI (Estimated): Given sharp plummet, RSI likely deeply oversold (<30) as of May 22 but rebounded slightly with $6.88 close. Historic moves show RSI can remain oversold for days on such breakdowns.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Would be near extreme oversold; however, slow recovery in price is insufficient confirmation of reversal.
• MACD: Fast line crossed under slow on collapse; no meaningful bullish divergence observed yet.

6. Moving Averages

• SMA (20-period): Likely above current price, trending down, and near $9–$10 (recent resistance zone).
• SMA (50-period): Above $8.50, further confirming a pronounced bearish bias.
• Price vs. MAs: RUN is trading significantly below its moving averages, reflecting severe technical damage and trend inertia down.

7. Fibonacci Retracements (May 13 High to May 22 Low)

• From $13.23 (High, May 13) to $6.16 (Low, May 22):
  • 38.2% retracement: $8.64
  • 50% retracement: $9.70
  • 61.8% retracement: $10.77
• The price has not meaningfully rebounded to test even the 38.2% level, indicating limited strength from buyers post-crash.

8. Volatility Assessment

• ATR: Drastically spiked post-crash. Current 1-day range (high-low) for May 22 was $0.82 (over 12%). For May 21, $0.76.
• Implied Volatility (Estimate): At extremely elevated levels; sharp price movements and volume remain likely.
• Price Action: Direction remains highly uncertain with risk skewed to the downside, given no clear stabilization signal.

9. Pattern Recognition

• How does this look?
  • Initial capitulation (May 22)
  • No V-shaped recovery or high-volume bullish reversal
  • Dead-cat bounce attempted (May 23)
  • Price remains suppressed at support, suggesting further distribution possible

10. Market Sentiment and Contextual Considerations

• Recent gap and prolonged decline suggest negative news (likely earnings shock, downgrade, or sector negativity).
• High relative volume implies institutions are actively rotating out; any buyers may be short-term traders covering shorts.
• No evidence of accumulation or insider support.

11. Risk-Reward and Trade Setup

• Downtrend strength: Multiple timeframes in sync to the downside.
• Short-term momentum: Negative, but temporarily oversold; bounces likely to be sold into.
• Risk: Break of $6.70 would expose retest of $6.16 and potentially $5.54 YTD low.
• Reward: Rebound targets $7.25–$7.50, but odds favor sellers due to technical damage and lack of bullish sentiment.

12. Summary and 24H Prediction

Given: prolonged sell-off, massive volume, no clear reversal, moving averages bearing down, price unable to reclaim prior support, and recent closing price hugging the breakdown zone.

Prediction: Expect continued downside over the next 24 hours with potential retest of the $6.16 panic low from May 22. Although minor intraday bounces may occur (to $7.00 or $7.20), the overall direction is likely to remain bearish unless an abrupt reversal with volume emerges (not observed). Major risk is further stop-loss triggering and liquidity runs.

Final Recommendation: SELL/SHORT

Initiate a short position near current levels ($6.88–$6.90), with a target to cover near $6.20–$6.25 (recent panic low zone). Stop-loss for prudent risk management: above $7.28 (recent intraday high / resistance). If trade experiences a sharp reversal with high volume above $7.47, close short.

Trading Plan

• Position: Sell (Short)
• Open Price: $6.88–$6.90 (current price and slightly above)
• Cover/Close Price: $6.20 (first major support and high probability test)
• Stop: $7.28 (well above short-term resistance)

All technical and volume analysis supports a bearish outlook in the next 24 hours, with downside skew prevailing.