RXRX Breakaway Gap With Power-Volume: Buy the Dip for a Run at 7.15

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for RXRX (Recursion Pharmaceuticals) over the next 24 hours

1. Market structure and context

• Regime: Strong bullish expansion. Two consecutive high-volume up days culminating in a breakaway gap and a trend day. Today printed a higher high (intraday 6.85) and higher low relative to yesterday, with exceptional volume.
• Volume regime: Yesterday ~104M shares; today ~179M (into the close/after-hours). That’s 3–5x recent average, confirming a news-driven or momentum regime. OBV-equivalent footprint surges, typically supportive of follow-through.
• Relative context (medium-term): Price has reclaimed the early-October surge area (6.00–6.10) and is now probing the July swing region (6.95–7.15), which is the next major supply zone (7/21 high ~7.15).

2. Price action: daily and intraday

• Daily trend since 10/10 pivot low (5.32): impulsive leg up to 6.85 with shallow intraday consolidations—bullish structure.
• Today’s session map (hourly): • 13:30–14:30 UTC: Gap-up open near 6.05 → immediate impulse to 6.75 on heavy tape, then first pullback to ~6.45. • Midday: Constructive base 6.20–6.50; subsequent higher low around 6.19; then second impulse leg to 6.80s. • Late session: Slight fade to 6.72–6.73; after-hours printing 6.72 (21:00 UTC). This is orderly end-of-day digestion rather than a liquidation.
• Candlestick character: Two-day expansion with long real bodies; today’s upper wick modest, consistent with trend continuation, not exhaustion (no shooting star/gravestone attributes).

3. Trend indicators

• 5/10/20-day SMAs: Upward stacked. Approx values: SMA20 ~5.20 (rising); SMA10 ~5.4–5.5; SMA5 ~5.9+. Price (6.7x) is well above all—clear momentum trend.
• EMAs (8/21): Likely 8EMA ~5.9–6.0; 21EMA ~5.4–5.5. Price cleanly above; bullish slope and positive separation indicate strong trend health.
• Ichimoku: Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; future cloud likely turning positive. When price is far from Kijun, mean-reversion pullbacks of 1–2 ATR are common before next leg—watch 6.25–6.50 pullback zones.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely 74–80 after a two-day surge—overbought but in a trend, which often “rides” overbought for several sessions.
• MACD daily: Bullish crossover occurred earlier in October; histogram expanding positively—trend-confirmation signal.
• Stochastics: Embedded in overbought; pullbacks to 60–70 area often provide reload entries in strong tapes.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Roughly 0.70–0.80 (recent ranges: 0.47–1.11). Expect 0.6–0.9 range tomorrow absent fresh news.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~5.20; upper ~6.10 (approx). Price is walking above the upper band—a hallmark of power trends; a brief mean-reversion toward the band or toward the rising 8EMA is common, not bearish by itself.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5*ATR): Upper channel roughly ~6.25–6.35; price is extended beyond it, indicating momentum thrust. Extensions beyond KC often see intraday pullbacks toward the channel before continuation.

6. Support and resistance map (with confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 6.85 intraday high; then 6.95–7.15 (July swing high and classic pivot R3 cluster). Above 7.15 opens air toward 7.50/7.80 if a squeeze develops.
• Immediate support: 6.50–6.55 (intraday base + likely session VWAP zone). Next: 6.25–6.30 (38.2% Fib and prior intraday congestion), then 6.05–6.10 (gap open and 8EMA vicinity), and 5.89 (yesterday’s close and gap origin).
• Volume-at-Price: A low-volume pocket exists roughly 6.00–6.40 from the quick markup; these zones can be traversed rapidly intraday. High-volume node building around 6.45–6.55 today suggests emerging support.

7. Fibonacci structure (10/10 low 5.32 → 10/15 high 6.85)

• Range = 1.53. Key retracements from the high: • 38.2%: ~6.27 (prime first-deep pullback target) • 50%: ~6.09 (aligns with prior breakout/gap area) • 61.8%: ~5.87 (yesterday’s close neighborhood)
• With price at 6.7x, shallow pullbacks (6.50–6.60) are buy-the-dip zones; deeper, high-probability supports sit 6.27 and 6.09.

8. Pivot framework (classic, based on 10/14 H=6.00 L=5.07 C=5.89)

• Pivot P = 5.653; R1 = 6.236; R2 = 6.583; R3 = 7.166; S1 = 5.306.
• Today extended through R2 and is now between R2 and R3. Typical continuation play is a tag of R3 within 1–2 sessions if momentum persists. R3 ~7.17 aligns with July resistance (~7.15) for a dual confluence target.

9. Pattern recognition

• Breakaway gap (10/15): From 5.89 to 6.01+ open, leaving an unfilled gap. Breakaway gaps often remain unfilled in the short run and precede multi-session advances. The first pullback post-gap typically buys near anchored VWAP or 38.2% retrace.
• Intraday bull flag: Consolidation 6.20–6.50 then breakout to 6.80s—healthy continuation behavior.
• No topping formations detected; no bearish engulfing or long upper-shadow reversal at resistance yet.

10. VWAP/anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP estimate: ~6.50–6.55 (heavy turnover clustered 6.45–6.65, with late push to ~6.80). Expect VWAP magnet effects early next session; defending above VWAP is bullish.
• Anchored VWAP from gap open (10/15 13:30 UTC) likely sits ~6.45–6.50. That’s an attractive tactical dip-buy zone with defined risk.

11. Elliott wave heuristic (tactical)

• Wave 1: 5.32 → 6.09 (10/8)
• Wave 2: 6.09 → 5.32 (10/10 retrace)
• Wave 3: 5.32 → 6.85 (today) extended. A shallow Wave 4 (6.45–6.60) would be typical before a Wave 5 probe into 6.95–7.20.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 6.50–6.60 (VWAP/flag top), buyers defend; push to 6.95–7.15. Possible intraday high near 7.10–7.20; close 6.90–7.05 if no new headlines.
• Bearish alt (25%): Deeper pullback to 6.27 (38.2% Fib). If momentum wanes and VWAP is lost decisively, a fast test of 6.27; strong bids expected there. Day closes 6.30–6.55.
• Tail risk (15%): Full gap-fill drift to 6.05–6.10 if broad market/biotech tape sours. Failure there would threaten 5.89; odds lower given current volume-backed thrust.

13. Risk management considerations

• Stop placement (if long): Below 6.24 (beneath 38.2% Fib and intraday structure) or conservative below 6.05 (gap/8EMA). For a tactical day swing, 6.24 is efficient.
• R:R profile (proposed): Entry 6.55, TP 7.15 (+0.60); SL 6.24 (−0.31) → ~1.9:1 reward-to-risk. With ATR ~0.7–0.8, both TP and SL sit within realistic 1-session ranges.
• Event/biotech risk: Headlines can dominate. Size appropriately; expect elevated IV and wider spreads premarket/after-hours.

14. Synthesis and conviction

• Multiple independent signals align: breakaway gap + extreme volume confirmation; stacked MAs/EMAs; momentum oscillators in bullish regime; VWAP support; pivot R3/JUL swing high 7.15 as logical magnet. Overbought readings argue for a buy-the-dip plan rather than chasing highs. Net-bullish bias with controlled pullback entry.

15. Trade plan (tactical, next 24h)

• Bias: Buy dips (long).
• Optimal entry: 6.55 limit near session VWAP/flag retest. If missed and price drives, a secondary momentum add-on could be above 6.86–6.90 on volume for a breakout toward 7.15 (not reflected in the single-price output).
• Profit target: 7.15 (pivot R3/July resistance confluence). Stretch target 7.20–7.30 if squeeze conditions appear.
• Invalidation: Sustained trade below 6.24 or a heavy-volume rejection back inside 6.05–6.10 gap area.

Bottom line: Expect an early pullback toward 6.50–6.60 followed by continuation toward 7.00–7.15 within 24 hours. Favor a Buy on dip with 7.15 as the primary take-profit.