Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

RXRX: Post-Spike Pullback Sets Up a Dip-Buy into the 6.8s

Executive summary

RXRX just completed a two-day vertical expansion (10/14–10/15) on extreme volume, followed by a high-volume pullback today (10/16) that closed well off the intraday high. Structure remains bullish on the daily timeframe (price > 5/10/20 SMAs; higher highs/higher lows), while intraday momentum cooled materially. The tape points to a buyable pullback into the 6.10–6.25 demand zone with upside retest toward 6.65–6.85 in the next 24 hours, provided 6.06–6.10 holds.

Daily trend: Higher highs and higher lows since late September. Breakaway gap and expansion started 10/8 (close 6.09) and accelerated 10/15 (close 6.79) on 180M shares, followed by 10/16 consolidation/pullback on 228M shares.
Today’s intraday action (10/16): Opened near prior close, spiked to 7.04, then persistent net selling with a sequence of lower highs/lows into 6.28. Close near the lower third of the session range shows supply, but the decline found bids above the 6.25–6.30 pocket multiple times.
Key levels from the tape:
- Resistance: 6.78–6.85 (cluster near R1 and prior close), then 7.00–7.05 (session high).
- Support: 6.25–6.30 (intraday reaction band), 6.10–6.12 (micro demand), 6.05–6.06 (Fib 38.2% / classic S1 confluence).
Volume: Massive participation since 10/14 suggests institutional involvement; pullbacks into volume-backed demand often get defended on first test.

5/10/20 SMAs (approx): 5-SMA ≈ 5.98, 10-SMA ≈ 5.81, 20-SMA ≈ 5.37. Current price (6.28–6.36 zone) sits above all three. Bullish order and expansion intact.
20-EMA likely in the 5.8–5.9 area; price remains extended but within a normal post-breakout pullback. Any test of the rising 10–20 day averages would likely attract dip buyers on the first pass.
50-SMA estimate ~5.35; positive slope. Price well above, supporting medium-term uptrend context.

RSI(14) daily (approx): High 60s after 10/15 surge; cooled toward ~62–66 post-pullback. That’s strong-bullish but no longer overbought.
Stochastics: Crossed down from overbought on the daily after today’s fade—typical of a bull-flag digestion rather than an outright trend failure while above key MAs.
MACD (12/26/9) daily: Positive and recently expanded; histogram is contracting, reflecting deceleration, not a bearish cross. On pullbacks within uptrends, that often precedes a secondary push.
Hourly RSI today trended low-to-mid 40s by the close, consistent with short-term downside exhaustion near support.

ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.60–0.70 post-breakout. A 24h swing of ±0.6 is within norms, implying an expected range roughly 5.7–6.9 around current.
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): 20-SMA ≈ 5.37; upper band recently stretched to the high 6s/near 7; price pulled back from upper band toward the mid-upper region—healthy digestion.
Keltner Channels (20 EMA, 1.5×ATR): Center ~5.9; upper band ~6.8; price retreated from the upper Keltner boundary—typical mean-reversion wave after expansion.
Donchian Channels (20): High 7.04, low ~4.52; midline ~5.78. Price remains above the midline after today’s pullback—trend context preserved.

Tenkan (9) ≈ (recent 9H+9L)/2 ≈ (7.04 + 5.23)/2 ≈ 6.14.
Kijun (26) ≈ (26H+26L)/2 ≈ (7.04 + ~4.52)/2 ≈ 5.78.
Price > Tenkan > Kijun; bullish alignment. Senkou A ≈ (Tenkan+Kijun)/2 ≈ 5.96, likely above Senkou B; cloud below price. Pullback toward Tenkan/Kijun zone (6.14/5.78) is typical and often gets defended.

Using swing low ~4.45–4.52 (early Sep) to 7.04 (10/16).
23.6% ≈ 6.43; 38.2% ≈ 6.05; 50% ≈ 5.74; 61.8% ≈ 5.44.
Price slipped under 23.6% (6.43) intraday and is gravitating toward the 6.05–6.10 cluster (38.2% + S1). This forms a high-probability buy zone if tested cleanly.

Pivot P ≈ (7.04 + 6.25 + 6.36)/3 ≈ 6.55.
R1 ≈ 6.85; R2 ≈ 7.34.
S1 ≈ 6.06; S2 ≈ 5.76.
Confluence: S1 (6.06) ≈ Fib 38.2% (≈6.05). P (6.55) sits near the middle of the likely 24h range. Expect magnetism toward P on a constructive bounce; first resistance test into 6.78–6.85 (R1 zone).

OBV: Up sharply since 10/8; today’s pullback likely flattened the slope but did not negate the uptrend—suggests accumulation on balance.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF 20): Likely still positive given the last 2 weeks of strong closes/volume, though today’s close in the lower third will drag it slightly. Net: inflows remain supportive.
Volume profile: HVNs around 6.60–6.80 (10/15–10/16) and 5.90–6.10 (10/8–10/14). Price currently between two high-volume nodes. Typical behavior is to migrate to the nearest HVN; on further dip, 6.00–6.10 HVN is the nearest demand shelf; on bounce, 6.60–6.80 is the supply shelf.
VWAPs: 10/16 session VWAP likely ~6.55–6.60 (price closed below). Next day often attempts partial mean reversion toward prior VWAP if early liquidity holds supports.

10/15: Wide-range bullish candle closing near high—impulse bar.
10/16: Long upper wick and lower close—a bearish reaction to overextension, forming the first flag leg down. In strong trends, the first bearish reaction after an impulse is frequently followed by a 1–3 day digestion and a retest of resistance.
Pattern view: Emerging bull flag/AB=CD symmetry potential. A measured pullback into 6.10–6.25 would be textbook.

10/16 hours: Opening pop to 7.04 failed; price stair-stepped lower in a controlled fashion. Late session stabilized 6.28–6.35. Structure resembles a falling wedge/descending channel—often resolves higher the next session when within a larger uptrend.

With ATR ~0.6–0.7 and P ≈ 6.55, a reasonable 24h envelope from 6.0–7.1. Given the confluence supports at 6.05–6.12 and resistance at 6.78–6.85, the skew favors a dip-and-rip pattern: early probe lower into 6.10–6.25, then a recovery toward 6.60–6.80 if buyers defend S1.
Probability-weighted bias: Slightly bullish over 24h while price remains above 6.05. A decisive break below 6.05 would open 5.76 (S2) and the 50% Fib (5.74) as next magnets—risk to the bullish view.

Intraday reaction support today: 6.25–6.30.
Classic S1 ≈ 6.06.
38.2% Fib ≈ 6.05.
Tenkan ≈ 6.14.
HVN ~6.00–6.10 from 10/8–10/14.
Together, this creates a dense demand cluster. First test after a breakout has a favorable risk/reward for a bounce.

Bias: Buy the pullback.
Entry: Limit buy in the 6.15–6.22 area to lean against the 6.05–6.12 confluence. Considering current price print discrepancy (feed shows 6.28 last trade vs currentPrice 6.36), an optimal single price is 6.18 to balance fill probability and R/R.
Target (24h): 6.75–6.85. I will set take-profit at 6.80 (just below R1 and prior resistance cluster) to improve fill odds.
Risk guide (not requested but prudent): Hard stop 5.94 (below S1/Fib cluster and undercut of the 6.00 round number). That yields roughly 1:3 R/R from 6.18 to 6.80.
Contingency: If the market gaps above 6.50 at the open, wait for a VWAP pullback rather than chasing into resistance; if it flushes through 6.06 on volume, stand down and reassess at 5.76–5.80.

Trend and breadth of evidence favor a Buy-the-Dip approach. The confluence at 6.05–6.20 is attractive for entries; upside magnet sits near 6.75–6.85 over the next session if support holds. Breaks below 6.05 would invalidate the near-term bullish skew and shift focus to 5.76–5.80.

24h price prediction

Base case: 6.12–6.22 test early, then rebound to 6.60–6.80 by end of next session.
Range expectation: 6.00–6.95. Bullish bias persists while above 6.05.