Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) – 24-hour Trading Analysis & Forecast

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1. Major Price Action Recap & Context

SRPT has undergone an unprecedented drop, falling from $36.18 on June 13 to a staggering low of $20.94 on June 16, a 42% single-day crash accompanied by an absolutely massive spike in volume (44 million shares, around 20x historical averages). The June 17 session attempted a recovery, opening at $21.16, surging to $22.98, and closing at $21.56 amid high volatility and persistent liquidity. Such price action is typical of capitulation, post-news shocks (e.g., FDA/clinical trial/earnings), or bankruptcy-related events. No major bounce, though—a mild recovery and price stabilizing around the low $21s.

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2. Technical Analysis – Multiple Methods

2.1 Trend and Price Structure

• Long-term trend: Completely broken. The March-May gradual decline ($100→ ~$35) punctuated by April/May distribution, followed by the June collapse, signals irreversible structural damage.
• Short-term trend: Attempting to base between $20.5 (intraday) and $22.9 (recovery high). Hourly candles show indecision and lack of strong upthrust after the initial bounce.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Former support ($35) now remote resistance.
  • Immediate resistance: $21.9–22.9 (today's high, hourly POC).
  • Current support: $20.5–21.0 (today's and yesterday's lows).

2.2 Volume and Order Flow

• June 16: Absorption of panic sellers, but no V-shaped reversal. Buyers not aggressively stepping in, only timid bounce.
• June 17: Morning spike faded, unable to break or hold above $22.5—implies market is selling into strength.
• Total volume for last 2 days remains significantly above average, suggesting ongoing liquidation.

2.3 Momentum Oscillators (RSI, Stochastics)

• Daily RSI: Deep oversold, likely below 20 (based on magnitude of the crash). However, oversold conditions can persist in the face of fundamental collapse.
• Hourly RSI: Briefly recovered on the morning high, then faded toward neutral/slightly weak readings.
• Stochastics: Suggest temporary relief rally has occurred, but with lower highs indicating lack of follow-through.

2.4 Moving Averages

• Prices are far below all major short- and long-term MAs (20DMA, 50DMA, 200DMA), a strong bearish signal.
• Intraday MAs (5/20 EMA): Prices are oscillating around 21.5–21.8, but with no meaningful upward slope. The bear trend dominates.

2.5 Price Patterns & Candle Structure

• Gap-down abandonment candle on 6/16 with extreme volume, followed by small-bodied candles with upper wicks—suggests upside moves are being sold into.
• No bullish reversal pattern (engulfing/inverted hammer/double bottom) has formed yet.

2.6 Fibonacci and Extension Targets

• Applying a Fib retracement from the recent swing high ($36.2) to low ($20.5):
  • 23.6% = $24.23
  • 38.2% = $27.09
  • Price has failed to even achieve the 23.6% retrace, showing limited bull power.
• Further downward (extension) targets suggest risk down to the psychological $20 or even sub-20 levels if the $20.5 support fails.

2.7 Volatility Indicators (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR: Highest in 2 years—reflects exceptional short-term trading risks and opportunities.
• Bollinger Bands: Price remains near the lower band, with only minimal mean reversion.
  • Upper band: $25+
  • Lower band: ~$20
  • Squeeze potential: If current $21.7 is rejected, a fresh expansion downward is possible.

2.8 Volume Profile & Liquidity Pockets

• Major volume node at $22–22.5 (today's high turn).
• Below $21.0, nearly air pocket until the session low at $20.5 and then open downside.

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3. Catalysts & Market Psychology

• Enormous downward volume is likely driven by either existential fundamental news (FDA, clinical, legal), forced liquidation, or insolvency event.
• Market consensus is extremely bearish, with any bounces met with quick selling.
• No evidence of sustained institutional accumulation.
• Downside risks remain until fundamental news is digested or a clear reversal signal appears.

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4. Quantitative Indicators & Risk

• **Implied volatility is record high (implied by price and realized vol).
• Beta-driven traders will continue shorting until stabilization or base forms.
• Short covering rally possible only if $22.9 is broken and held, but probability low.

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5. Price Forecast – Next 24 Hours

• Likeliest scenario: Price retests $20.5–21.0 base. If that fails, capitulation could take price as low as $18–19 (extension target) intraday.
• Upside is capped by $22–22.9; reluctance to sustain above those levels.
• Most probable: Range $20.5–22. Pairing risk/reward, short entries on failed rallies are optimal.

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6. Trading Decision & Positioning

TL;DR:

• Technical, order flow, and sentiment all point to sellers still in control. Oversold bounces are failing quickly. No bottoming pattern or buying climax yet.

Action:

• SELL / Short position favored.
• Entry: On failed rallies near $21.80–22.00 (resistance/volume node).
• Stop: Above $23.
• Take Profit: Near $20.20–20.50 (prior session low/support zone). Possible extension to $19 if panic resumes.

Risk/Reward:

• Reward/Risk = ($21.80–$20.20)/($23–$21.80) ≈ 1.3:1 or better, improves significantly if extension lower occurs.

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7. Confluence

• All technical tools—trend, volume, price action, volatility—agree that the dominant trend is down.
• Unless major bullish news or buy-side volume spike occurs, trend-following shorts have statistical edge.

Summary: SRPT is still in the post-capitulation phase with high risk and weak buy-side rallies. It is optimal to short into any bounce near resistance, targeting a retest and break of the recent lows. Given no signs of a base or reversal, sellers should remain in control for the next 24 hours.