Tilray Brands, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

TLRY’s Momentum Reset: Buying the 38–50% Dip for a Push Back Toward $1.08

Comprehensive multi-method technical analysis for TLRY (next 24 hours)

Regime shift: TLRY transitioned from a multi-month sub-$0.70 base to a momentum regime with an explosive gap and volume expansion on 2025-08-11, followed by a volatility spike today (intraday high ≈ 1.1996, pullback to ~0.95–0.93). This is classic “gap-and-go” Day 1 (8/11), Day 2 spike/fade (8/12). Such sequences often lead to a Day 3 stabilization/continuation if key supports hold.
Liquidity/volume: 8/11 volume (~268M) and 8/12 intraday prints (~155M in the first big hour alone) indicate institutional-scale participation and a new, higher-liquidity regime. Large volume at higher prices typically builds new value areas above the prior base.

Breakouts: Successive resistance levels at ~0.70, 0.80, 0.90 were cleared decisively. The tape formed a large gap from ~0.65 to ~0.79 (8/11) that remains unfilled—bullish while above ~0.79.
Today’s character: A wide-range day with a long upper wick (spike to ~1.20 then close sub-1.00), implying profit-taking and supply above ~1.05–1.12. Closing back near ~0.95–0.93 sets up a constructive 38.2–50% retracement zone from the 0.60–1.20 swing (see Fibonacci below).
Key daily levels: • Resistance: 1.00/1.02 (psych+round+intraday pivot), 1.05–1.07 (supply zone from repeated rejections), 1.12–1.20 (exhaustion spike/upper supply shelf).
• Support: 0.95 (session pivot), 0.92 (8/11 close and HVN), 0.90 (round + 50% fib area), 0.84–0.86 (61.8% fib cluster), 0.79–0.80 (gap window; must hold for the larger bull thesis).

Opening expansion: 13:30–14:30 UTC hour printed the entire range from ~0.955 to ~1.1996 on massive volume, then faded back below 1.05. Subsequent hours carved lower highs (~1.07 → 1.05 → 1.04 → 1.00), with bids stabilizing ~0.95, and a late print near 0.93. This is typical of a “trend down within a strong uptrend day” after a blowoff spike—often a reset rather than a trend change if higher-timeframe support holds.
High-volume nodes (HVNs): Heavy transacted volume clustered around 0.95–1.00 creates a short-term value area. This can serve as a springboard if reclaimed above VWAP tomorrow; otherwise, a liquidity vacuum below ~0.92 could briefly accelerate to ~0.88–0.86 before buyers step back in.

Volume expansion on the breakout suggests accumulation rather than distribution at the higher range. The heaviest prints occurred into strength and on the pullback, implying two-way trade but with buyers willing to accept higher prices. If we see early reclaim of 1.00–1.05 on rising volume tomorrow, it flags supply absorption and opens the path to 1.10–1.12.

20-SMA/EMA: Rising and likely in the ~0.62–0.65 area, well below current price—indicates strong bullish momentum on the daily timeframe.
50-SMA: Rising from the mid-0.50s; price is materially extended above it (bullish trend).
200-SMA: Below current price; the slope is flattening to up.
Interpretation: With price stacked well above the 20/50/200 MAs, pullbacks are statistically more likely to be bought unless supports break decisively.

RSI(14) daily: Pushed into overbought territory (>70) yesterday; today’s fade likely cooled RSI into the mid-60s. This “overbought cool-off without trend damage” is typical before the next attempt higher.
Stochastic: Likely cycling down on the intraday while still elevated on daily—consistent with a short-term dip inside a larger uptrend.
MACD daily: Positive and expanding but histogram contracted today—signaling a healthy momentum pause rather than reversal while above ~0.90.

ATR(14) daily: Expanded sharply, reflecting regime change; expect 0.10–0.15 daily swings near-term.
Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price remains above or near the upper band. A pullback from outside the band back toward the band/mean often precedes another push. Re-entering the band near ~0.90–0.95 and then curling up is a bullish continuation setup.

Session VWAP (8/12): Estimated around 1.02–1.04; price finished beneath, conveying intraday weakness. However, reclaims of session VWAP early next session are a high-probability continuation signal in momentum regimes.
Anchored VWAP from 8/11 gap start: Likely in the mid-high 0.80s; price holding well above it keeps the bull thesis intact.

38.2%: ~0.971.
50%: ~0.90.
61.8%: ~0.84.
Current ~0.93–0.95 sits between 38.2% and 50% retracement—a common “buy-the-dip” zone in strong trends. Failure of 0.90 would increase risk of a deeper retrace to 0.84 before attempting a higher low.

Price > Cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Leading Span A > Span B. The set is bullish and extended. A pullback toward Tenkan/Kijun equilibrium (likely ~0.90–0.95 region) aligns with today’s action. Continuation probability remains favorable while above the Kijun-equivalent zone.

Wave 1 impulse from ~0.60s to ~0.92 (8/11 close), Wave 2 expanded as an intraday spike/fade into today’s 0.93–0.95 close region (a-b-c on lower timeframe). If this holds, a Wave 3 attempt could target 1.12–1.20 in coming sessions; for the next 24 hours, a measured move into ~1.07–1.10 is the near-term objective.

AB=CD symmetry from the pullback base around ~0.93 projects 1.07–1.10 as a first completion zone. The 1.12–1.20 band aligns with extended projections and prior spike high.

Bull flag potential: The intraday down-sloping consolidation from ~1.20 to ~0.95 resembles an initial bull flag. A break over 1.02–1.05 with volume would confirm and target 1.08–1.12.
Candle anatomy: Today resembles a shooting-star-like day on the daily, but occurring after a momentum gap; these often mark consolidation rather than full reversals if the prior day’s close (~0.92) holds.

Primary line in the sand: 0.90 (50% fib, round number). Lose 0.90 on volume and probability shifts to a deeper test of 0.84–0.86 before any rebound.
Secondary must-hold for the larger thesis: 0.79–0.80 (gap window). A fill into the 0.70s would negate the near-term momentum thesis.

Base case (probability ~55–60%): Early stabilization 0.92–0.95, reclaim 0.99–1.02, then a push into 1.05. If 1.05 breaks with volume, continuation to 1.08–1.10; potential extension to 1.12.
Bear/alt case (~30–35%): Early weakness probes 0.90–0.92. A brief liquidity flush to 0.88–0.86 could occur if 0.90 fails; expect responsive buying near 0.86–0.90.
Low-probability tail (~10%): Full reversal toward the gap window 0.80—would likely require negative news or broad risk-off.

Bias: Buy-the-dip within an emerging uptrend; look to position near 0.93–0.95 with risk defined under 0.88–0.90, targeting a retest of the 1.05/1.08/1.10 supply zone within 24 hours.
R/R: Buy 0.93, stop 0.88 (risk 0.05), target 1.08 (reward 0.15) ≈ 3:1 reward-to-risk. Partials at 1.02–1.05 can be considered in live trading to lock gains; final target 1.08 aligns with measured moves and the lower bound of the overhead supply stack.
Confirmation triggers: Early reclaim of 0.99–1.02 and session VWAP, expanding volume on up-moves, and shrinking volume on dips.
Invalidation: A decisive, high-volume break and hold below 0.90.

Bottom line (24-hour outlook)

Expect consolidation-to-upside resolution if 0.90–0.92 support holds. Probability-weighted path targets 1.05–1.10, with 1.08 as an achievable 24-hour objective.