TLRY’s Momentum Markup: Buy the 1.22 Dip for a Run at 1.36 (24‑Hour Plan)

Comprehensive multi-technique technical analysis for TLRY over the next 24 hours

1. Market regime and structure

• Regime shift: TLRY has transitioned from a multi-month sub-$0.70 base to a momentum breakout regime. A three-session surge (Aug 11–13) with extraordinary volume confirms a shift from accumulation to active markup.
• Trend: Daily timeframe has established a clear sequence of higher highs/higher lows since late July; intraday (hourly) on Aug 13 shows an orderly trend day with shallow pullbacks and a close near the highs (last print ~1.2498).
• Close location value (CLV): Closing in the top decile of the daily range is bullish and indicates persistent demand into the close.

2. Volume and money flow

• Volume expansion: 268M (Aug 11), 290M (Aug 12), and heavy turnover again on Aug 13 (intraday block volumes across the session). This is a textbook breakout volume signature; high odds of follow-through within 1–2 sessions.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution: Both would register steep rises; the pattern of up days on expanding volume supports accumulation rather than distribution.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Likely strongly positive given closes near the high with large volume.
• Volume profile (intraday 8/13): Visible high-volume nodes around 1.10–1.16 and 1.20–1.23; price acceptance built above 1.20 late-day. Thin air above 1.25 suggests that, if 1.27 breaks, price can travel quickly to 1.32–1.36.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 5SMA ≈ 0.884; 10SMA ≈ 0.744; 20SMA ≈ 0.708 (computed from recent closes). Price at 1.25 sits 41% above 5SMA and 77% above 20SMA, reflecting a powerful, stretched trend.
• EMAs (est.): 8EMA and 21EMA are steeply rising well below price; pullbacks into the 8–21EMA zone (~1.12–1.20 est. on next session) are buyable in this regime.
• ADX: Trend strength likely >25 and rising; momentum trend confirmed.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14D): Likely >80 after three large up sessions. Overbought in a trend is a feature, not a bug; it favors buy-the-dip rather than top-ticking a short.
• Stochastic: Maxed/high; expect intraday resets via shallow pullbacks (micro mean-reversion) before continuation.
• MACD: Fast line well above slow line; histogram expanding. No bearish crossover risk near-term unless a deep retrace occurs.
• Williams %R: Overbought; supports momentum but warns of sharp, fast pullbacks.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (14D) has exploded higher (est. 0.09–0.12), consistent with breakout. Plan for 6–10% intraday swings.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding above the upper band after a band expansion. In this phase, mean reversion risk exists, but continuation is common if bands keep widening.
• Keltner Channels: Likely in a squeeze-release state with price above upper KC, confirming trend acceleration.

6. Intraday structure and VWAP

• Hourly laddering: 1.0858 → 1.105 → 1.145 → 1.185 → 1.205 → 1.225 → 1.25. Higher highs and higher lows each hour.
• Closing sequence: Brief 1.24 dip into the final print near 1.25—buyers defended late.
• VWAP (Aug 13, est.): ~1.16–1.19. Current price trades above VWAP; first dip into 1.20–1.22 should attract demand if momentum persists.

7. Support/resistance map (confluence driven)

• Supports: 1.22–1.23 (late-day shelf), 1.20 (psych), 1.16–1.18 (VWAP/pivot), 1.10–1.12 (gap shelf), 1.05 (pivot S1).
• Resistances: 1.25 (round/close), 1.27 (session high), 1.30 (psych), 1.35–1.36 (Fibonacci/weekly R1 confluence), 1.40–1.43 (2.618 fib zone extension from 0.65 swing base).

8. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing base: 0.65 (Aug 8) to 0.95 (Aug 12) = 0.30. Extensions from 0.65: 1.618 = 1.135, 2.000 = 1.25, 2.618 = 1.435. Price tagged the 2.000 extension (1.25) and paused—textbook behavior. Next upside magnet on sustained breakout is 1.43–1.44.
• Larger swing (0.58 → 0.95 = 0.37): 1.618 = 1.179, 2.000 = 1.32, 2.618 = 1.55. Aligns with 1.32–1.36 upside window next.

9. Pivot points (using H=1.27, L=0.96, C=1.25)

• Pivot (P) = (1.27 + 0.96 + 1.25)/3 = 1.16
• S1 = 2P − H = 1.05
• R1 = 2P − L = 1.36
• S2 = P − (H − L) = 0.85
• R2 = P + (H − L) = 1.47 Interpretation: Expect price to oscillate around P=1.16 on pullbacks; R1=1.36 is the natural next-session target if momentum resumes.

10. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is well above a rising Tenkan and Kijun; Senkou Span A/B lag far below. Strong bullish trend phase; pullbacks into the Tenkan (likely ~1.05–1.15 soon) are typically bought in this mode.

11. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Large bullish bodied candles with closes near the highs; gap-and-go behavior from 0.95 → 1.25. No topping wick excess at the close.
• Intraday: Continuation trend day with a late-session consolidation forming a mini bull flag between 1.23–1.25.

12. Risk factors and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (50%): Early dip toward 1.20–1.22 as profit-taking hits the open, then buyers defend VWAP/pivot zone and push a run at 1.27 break; extension to 1.32–1.36 by late session.
• Bull case (30%): Gap up or quick reclaim of 1.27 within first hour; momentum squeeze through 1.30 triggers stops; accelerates to 1.36–1.40, with tails possibly to 1.43 (2.618 fib) if volume remains elevated.
• Bear case (20%): Deeper pullback that undercuts 1.20 and tests 1.16 pivot/VWAP; if that fails, a fast flush to 1.10–1.12 and potentially 1.05 S1. Even in this case, responsive buyers likely appear given volume profile structure, but upside timeline lengthens.

13. Indicator consensus

• Momentum suite (RSI/MACD/Stoch, Elder Impulse, Parabolic SAR): Bullish/extended—favor buy-the-dip.
• Trend suite (SMA/EMA/ADX, Donchian): Strong uptrend with a Donchian breakout; ADX strengthening.
• Volatility suite (ATR/BB/KC): Expanded volatility consistent with continuation but implies larger pullback amplitude; manage position sizing.
• Flow suite (OBV/CMF/VWAP): Accumulation signals; above VWAP into the close is supportive.

14. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Style: Momentum continuation via buy-the-dip into intraday support.
• Entry: Optimal limit buy zone 1.20–1.22, aligned with late-day shelf and just above VWAP/pivot confluence. To maximize expectancy while controlling risk, place an order at 1.22.
• Upside target: 1.36 (pivot R1, fib clustering 1.32–1.36). That’s ~11.5% over a 24h window—realistic in current ATR.
• Contingency (not executable here but relevant): If price gaps and holds above 1.27, a breakout stop-entry is also valid with the same 1.36 target. If price flushes below 1.16 decisively, momentum thesis is delayed; reassess.

15. Price path expectation (24h)

• Likely path: Open or early dip → 1.20–1.22 test → rebound to 1.27 → breakout attempts → 1.32–1.36 magnet by late session, provided volume remains above average and VWAP stays rising.

Conclusion: Multiple, independent toolsets (trend, momentum, volume, VWAP, fib, pivots) align bullishly. The name is extended but in a strong squeeze/markup regime. The highest-odds plan is to Buy on a controlled pullback to the 1.20–1.22 zone and aim for a push into the 1.32–1.36 resistance band within the next session.

Note: Extremely elevated volatility; position size accordingly and actively manage risk.