Tilray’s turbocharged trend: Buy the dip into 1.15 for a pivot reclaim toward 1.32

Executive summary

• Signal: Buy the dip, expect a choppy but upward-biased session over the next 24 hours.
• Plan: Enter on a pullback toward 1.15 (limit). First upside magnet is the daily pivot area near 1.23; key resistance ladder 1.25 → 1.32 (R1) → 1.37 (local high). Target 1.32 within 24 hours if momentum/VWAP is reclaimed.
• Context: After a multi-session momentum breakout with extreme volume, TLRY printed a long upper wick today (intraday high 1.37, close ~1.18; after-hours tested ~1.14). Despite near-term overbought conditions, structural uptrend, breadth of volume participation, and a developing bull flag suggest dip-buyers should support 1.12–1.16.

Price action and structure

• Regime shift: From April–June, TLRY based in the 0.36–0.50 area. In July it broke out (0.58–0.79), then accelerated in August: 8/11 (0.72→0.92 close), 8/12 gapped up (1.11/1.20 high but closed 0.95: profit-taking), 8/13 surged to 1.25 close (marubozu), 8/14 ranged 1.13–1.37 and closed ~1.18 with a long upper wick (supply test). Volumes were extraordinary: 268M, 290M, 191M, 152M respectively — a step-function increase vs. prior months, confirming trend change.
• Intraday (hourly) 8/14: Early spike to 1.37 rejected, fast flush to ~1.07–1.14 zone, then higher-low basing 1.14–1.20; late print around 1.14 in thin after-hours. The price is sitting just above the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 0.72→1.25 leg (≈1.10–1.14 support band).
• Market profile/volume nodes: Fresh high-volume node formed 1.14–1.20 (today’s distribution), implying magnetic re-tests and responsive buying there. Another prominent node near 1.22–1.25 (yesterday’s closing spike) acts as initial overhead supply but flips to support on breakout/reclaim.

Key levels (confluence of multiple methods)

• Supports: 1.14–1.16 (intraday HVN and 38.2% retrace from 0.72→1.25), 1.12–1.13 (today’s lower distribution), 1.08 (Classic S1), 1.00 (S2/major psychological, near 50% retrace ~0.985).
• Resistances: 1.20 (intraday VWAP vicinity), 1.22–1.25 (prior close/round-number supply), 1.32 (R1/pivot-derived target), 1.37 (session high), 1.47 (R2 extension; stretch).
• Classic pivots (computed from 8/14 H=1.37, L=1.13, C=1.18): P≈1.2267, R1≈1.3234, S1≈1.0834, R2≈1.4667, S2≈0.9867. We closed below P but above S1 — typical of a buy-the-dip next session if breadth holds.

Trend, moving averages, and channels

• Daily trend: Strong uptrend. Price is well above rising 20D SMA (est. ~0.65–0.70) and 50D SMA (~0.48–0.52). Extensions this large usually invite consolidation, but primary trend remains up.
• EMAs: 5/9/21D EMAs are stacked bullish and rapidly rising; 9D EMA likely ~0.75–0.85 — far below price, signaling overextension but also momentum regime.
• Regression channel (late Jul to present): Midline around ~0.95–1.00; upper boundary ~1.35–1.40 (tagged today); we’re cycling from upper band toward mid-upper; dips to the upper-mid portion (1.12–1.18) are typical continuation buy zones in strong trends.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, 14): Likely high-70s/low-80s on 8/13, cooling toward low-70s on 8/14: overbought but not broken; strong-trend RSI can remain elevated while price flags.
• Stochastics (daily): Embedded >80 with a minor hook down on 8/14 — consistent with a flag, not necessarily reversal.
• MACD (daily): Bullish and expanding; histogram probably peaked 8/13 and ticked lower 8/14 (early deceleration). A shallow histogram contraction into a sideways flag is constructive.
• Intraday RSI (1H): Mid-range (40–60) for much of today post-flush, reflecting consolidation rather than trend failure; slight positive divergence on later pullbacks is visible in the hourlies.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (14D): Expanding sharply (estimated ~0.12–0.18). Expect 10–15% intraday swings; risk sizing is crucial.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price rode/pierced the upper band on 8/13–8/14; 8/14 printed a long upper wick beyond the band and closed near or just inside it — a common pause signal. A 1–2 session mean-reversion to the upper-middle band (well above the 20SMA due to strong drift) fits a flag scenario.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside the upper KC on 8/13 and tested again on 8/14; moves outside KCs in trend often precede a consolidation inside the channel before the next leg.

Volume, flow, and accumulation

• OBV: Surging; the 8/12 red candle didn’t dent the cumulative thrust given 8/13’s strong close.
• Chaikin Money Flow/MFI: Positive on multi-day basis; 8/14’s intraday distribution lowered the reading but stayed constructive due to sustained high inflows.
• VWAPs:
  • Session VWAP (8/14) estimated ~1.18–1.20; price finished slightly below, suggesting a tactical objective to reclaim VWAP early next session.
  • Anchored VWAP from 8/11 breakout sits near 1.06–1.10; we remain well above, reinforcing that dips into low 1.10s are high-confluence supports.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Primary leg 0.72 (8/11 low) to 1.25 (8/13 high):
  • 38.2% ≈ 1.10, 50% ≈ 0.985, 61.8% ≈ 0.955. Price respected the 38.2% zone intraday (lows ~1.13–1.14 after hours), signaling shallow, trend-consistent retracement so far.
• Flag/pennant potential: Flag range 1.14–1.22; flagpole ≈ 0.95→1.25 (=0.30). A break and close >1.22–1.25 projects toward 1.35–1.55 over 1–3 sessions; within 24 hours, 1.32–1.37 is the feasible band.

Ichimoku (daily and 4H)

• Price is well above the Cloud; Span A rising. Tenkan (fast line) is likely in the 1.00–1.10 zone; Kijun below that. Current price is extended above Tenkan/Kijun (TK-extension), which often leads to a pullback toward Tenkan before trend continuation — consistent with buying near 1.13–1.16.

Directional strength

• ADX (daily) is likely rising into the high-20s/30s; +DI above –DI, confirming a strong trend. A modest dip in +DI after today’s wick is normal; trend not impaired.

Candlesticks and patterns

• 8/13: Bullish marubozu close at high (squeeze continuation).
• 8/14: Small real body with long upper shadow (supply test/shooting-star-like). In the context of a strong advance, this typically precedes 1–2 days of range digestion rather than immediate trend reversal, unless confirmed by a close below S1 (≈1.08).

Risk and scenario mapping (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip into 1.13–1.16 gets absorbed; VWAP/pivot reclaim → push into 1.22–1.25; if 1.25 breaks with volume, extension toward 1.30–1.32 (R1) likely before New York close.
• Sideways (35%): Range 1.12–1.22 as the market builds acceptance under pivot P≈1.227; multiple re-tests of 1.18–1.20 VWAP without decisive break.
• Bear case (10%): Break and hold below 1.12 leads to 1.08 S1 test; loss of S1 opens a fast air-pocket to 1.00–0.99 (S2/50% Fib). This would begin transitioning from bull-flag to deeper retrace.

Confluences supporting a buy-the-dip

• Structural uptrend across timeframes; EMAs/MAs all bullishly aligned.
• Massive volume confirmation on the breakout days (8/11–13) with OBV/CMF positive.
• Respect of shallow Fibonacci retracement (~38.2%) so far; multiple supports clustered 1.12–1.16.
• Pivot math favors a magnet move back to P≈1.23 when price closes above S1 and remains within the prior day’s range.
• Developing bull flag/pennant on intraday charts with measurable upside to 1.30–1.32 on breakout.

Invalidation/risk control (for context)

• A decisive hourly close below ~1.12 increases odds of a test of 1.08 (S1). A daily close below 1.08 would negate the flag and suggest a swing back to the 1.00 area. For the proposed trade, a protective stop would typically sit 1.06–1.08 depending on risk tolerance and position size.

Execution notes

• Order type: Limit buy near 1.15 where liquidity concentrated and sellers exhausted intraday; if the dip overshoots, consider a staggered entry down to 1.13. Momentum add-on (not part of the single-price output) would be a stop-entry above 1.25 only if breadth/volume surge returns.
• Take-profit: 1.32 (R1 cluster and measured flag objective); partials could be taken at 1.23–1.25 (pivot/previous close) and 1.30, but the single target for this plan is 1.32.

24-hour outlook and path

• Early session: Probe 1.13–1.16, then attempt VWAP/P pivot reclaim (~1.18–1.23).
• Midday: If 1.22–1.25 breaks with volume, fast move to 1.30–1.32 is likely; otherwise chop under pivot.
• Late day: Consolidate near achieved level; if buyers control, close above 1.23 improves probability of a 1.32 test.

Bottom line

• Despite near-term overbought signals and today’s upper wick, the dominant impulse is still higher. The most favorable risk-adjusted spot for the next 24 hours is to buy weakness into 1.15 with a target toward the R1 cluster at 1.32. This aligns with pivot dynamics, Fib support, intraday HVNs, and the ongoing momentum regime.