TLRY’s Surge Catches Its Breath: Buy the $1.00 Pullback for a Pivot Reversion to $1.15

Comprehensive multi-lens technical read on TLRY (Daily data through 2025-08-15; current price ~$1.03 as of 2025-08-17)

1. Price action and structure (from April → mid‑August)

• April–June: Extended base between ~$0.36–0.50 with repeated failed breakouts. Low volatility, declining ranges; sellers exhausted around ~$0.36–0.40.
• July: Stair-step advance from ~$0.55 to ~$0.79 with constructive pullbacks and rising volume; first impulse leg signaled regime change from accumulation to markup.
• Early August (8/1–8/8): Tight consolidation ~0.57–0.66; energy build.
• 8/11–8/14: Vertical expansion. 8/11 volume climax (268M) and strong close at $0.92; 8/12 gap up to $1.11 intraday but faded to $0.95; 8/13 surge to new high, close at $1.25; 8/14 spike to $1.37 then close $1.18 (shooting‑star‑like candle) indicating supply near $1.35–1.37.
• 8/15: Attempted push to $1.25 failed; close $1.03 near day’s low ($1.02). That’s a decisive downside follow‑through after the 8/14 upper‑wick warning.

2. Volume and participation

• Climax behavior: 8/11–8/14 printed three consecutive 150M–290M+ days, dwarfing July’s 30–90M; this typically indicates either the start of a major trend or a near‑term exhaustion before consolidation.
• 8/15 volume (88.8M) contracted sharply from the peak cluster: a cooling of momentum rather than panic—suggestive of profit‑taking more than capitulation.
• OBV (directional read): Large net advance in OBV across the week; the last two sessions dipped but did not negate the OBV uptrend. Interpretation: buyers still control the higher‑timeframe tape, though short‑term pressure is correcting the blowoff.

3. Trend diagnostics (moving averages and slope)

• 5‑day SMA: ≈ (0.92 + 0.95 + 1.25 + 1.18 + 1.03)/5 ≈ 1.066. Price (~1.03) is just below the fast mean: short‑term pullback within a broader up‑move.
• 10‑day SMA (approx): ≈ 0.80–0.85. Price > 10SMA → bullish intermediate momentum intact.
• 20‑day SMA (approx): ≈ 0.68–0.72. Price well above → primary trend up.
• 50‑day SMA (approx): ≈ 0.50–0.55. Strongly positive slope; trend regime is bullish.
• Conclusion: Pullback to rising short MAs; stacked MAs (price > 10SMA > 20SMA > 50SMA) support buy‑the‑dip bias.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) qualitative read: surged into overbought (>70) on 8/13, then cooled with two distribution days. Likely ~55–60 now—neutral to moderately bullish. This leaves room for a reflex bounce without needing deep mean‑reversion.
• Stochastics (qualitative): K fell from >90 to ~30–40 zone; potential for a bullish cross if price stabilizes above $1.00–$1.02 early next session.
• MACD(12,26,9): Positive but histogram has been contracting since 8/14. This often precedes a shallow dip or sideways coil before the next directional push. No daily bearish cross yet; momentum bull trend intact but cooling.

5. Volatility framework

• True ranges rose dramatically post‑breakout. Estimated ATR(14) ~ $0.14–$0.18 after the volatility burst. Expect ±$0.12–$0.20 swings intraday in the next 24h.
• Implication: Even if directionally right, expect noise. Plan entries near support and define exits precisely.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Midline ~ 20SMA ≈ $0.70; stdev expanded substantially during the spike. Upper band likely around $1.05–$1.10, lower ~ $0.30–$0.35.
• Current price sits near/just below the upper band area after pulling back from a strong band ride. Typical behavior: either band walk resumes after a brief pause or price snaps toward midline. Given stacked MAs and recent breakout, odds favor a pause then re‑attempt higher rather than a full mean reversion to $0.70 in the next 24h.

7. Candlestick pattern analysis

• 8/14: Long upper shadow (shooting‑star‑like) at $1.37 high → supply discovered.
• 8/15: Large red candle whose body engulfs the prior green body range (bearish engulfing vs 8/14’s body) and close near session low → confirms near‑term corrective phase.
• Context: After blowoff highs, a 1–3 day pullback or sideways churn is normal before the trend decides. We are likely in day 2 of that digestion window.

8. Support, resistance, and gaps

• Key supports:
  • $1.00 psych and round‑number magnet.
  • $0.98–$1.05: 50% Fibonacci retrace zone of the 0.72 → 1.37 leg (range $0.65). 50% ≈ $1.045; 61.8% ≈ $0.968.
  • $0.94–$0.96: micro gap/support cluster (8/11 close $0.92; 8/12 low $0.94). Likely sticky if $1.00 breaks.
• Key resistances:
  • $1.12–$1.15: prior congestion/upper wick supply, aligns with 38.2% retrace from $1.37 (~$1.121) and classic pivot R1 (see below).
  • $1.25: recent closing high and intraday pivot (8/13, 8/15).
  • $1.35–$1.37: spike high supply zone.

9. Fibonacci mapping (swing 0.72 → 1.37)

• 38.2%: 1.37 − 0.382×0.65 ≈ $1.121 → overhead resistance band.
• 50%: ≈ $1.045 → where we are hovering.
• 61.8%: ≈ $0.968 → deeper pullback support if $1.00 fails.
• Read: Price is testing the 50% level; either a reflex bounce into $1.12–$1.15 or a full 61.8% probe ($0.96–$0.97) if sellers press early.

10. Pivot levels (Classic, using 8/15 H/L/C = 1.25/1.02/1.03)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ (1.25+1.02+1.03)/3 ≈ $1.10
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ $1.18
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ $0.95
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ $1.33
• S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ $0.87
• Expect mean‑reversion magnet toward P ≈ $1.10 if the open holds $1.00. First resistance confluence around $1.12–$1.18 (Fib 38.2% + R1).

11. VWAP and tape feel (qualitative)

• 8/15 likely VWAP anchored near $1.12–$1.14 given early strength then persistent selloff. Prices below that into the next session often attempt a VWAP reversion test, especially when higher‑timeframe trend is still up. That aligns with the pivot‑magnet near $1.10–$1.14.

12. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price > Kumo (cloud) → bullish regime.
• Tenkan (9‑period) likely rolled over but remains above Kijun; Kijun (26‑period) likely ~ $0.90–$0.95 given recent mid‑range. A dip toward $0.95–$1.00 would be a typical mean‑reversion check within an uptrend.
• Chikou span is above price from 26 periods ago → confirms positive higher‑timeframe bias.

13. Market profile/auction read (simplified)

• Recent value shifted up from ~$0.60s to ~$1.00–$1.15. 8/15’s rejection above $1.20 moved the day’s value lower, but acceptance above $1.00 keeps the new higher value area intact. If next session establishes value >$1.03 and migrates toward $1.10, expect continuation probes into $1.12–$1.15.

14. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Interpreting 8/1–8/13 as impulsive wave 3 culminating at $1.37, 8/14–8/15 resemble wave‑4‑type correction (sharp A‑B‑C or flat). Typical wave‑4 retraces 23.6–38.2% of wave 3, but after vertical climaxes, 50–61.8% retraces are common. The $1.00–$1.05 region fits a wave‑4 completion candidate with potential wave‑5 attempt toward $1.25–$1.33 afterward. Note: 24h may only capture the early portion (reflex to $1.12–$1.15).

15. Risk factors and invalidation

• Bearish case next 24h: Continued supply from trapped late buyers above $1.15 could push a gap‑down flush to $0.98–$0.96 (61.8% Fib) before stabilizing. A sustained break and acceptance below $0.95 (S1 and gap shelf) would open $0.87 (S2), though that is less likely in a single session without new catalysts.
• Bullish case: Hold $1.00 on the open; buyers reclaim P=$1.10, rotate into $1.12–$1.15, with stretch targets $1.18 (R1). A full test of $1.25 is possible if momentum re‑accelerates, but probability within 24h is lower given the recent distribution print.

16. Scenario probabilities (subjective)

• Base case (55%): Early dip toward $1.00–$1.02 gets bought; session rotates to $1.10–$1.15; close in the $1.10–$1.14 band.
• Bear case (25%): Momentum gap below $1.00; quick tag of $0.97–$0.98 (61.8%); late‑day rebound to ~$1.02–$1.05.
• Bull stretch (20%): Immediate strength; reclaim $1.12 quickly; squeeze to $1.18; tail into $1.20s; close $1.14–$1.18.

17. Trade construction (24h tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip against $1.00 with eyes on $1.12–$1.15 mean‑reversion and pivot magnet.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy near $1.00 (psych level + close proximity to 50% Fib $1.045 and just above 61.8% risk at $0.968). Alternatively, momentum confirmation buy‑stop at $1.08–$1.10 if you prefer strength entries (lower RR, higher win rate). For maximizing RR within 24h, the dip‑buy is superior.
• Profit target: $1.14–$1.15 (confluence: VWAP reversion, Fib 38.2% band, local supply shelf, and below R1 $1.18).
• Risk management (not part of the requested output but essential): Initial stop $0.94 (below S1 and gap shelf), giving approx risk $0.06–$0.07 from $1.00–$1.01. RR ≈ 2.0–2.5x to $1.14–$1.15.

18. Synthesis and call

• Despite a two‑day corrective pattern (shooting star + bearish engulfing), the higher‑timeframe trend remains up, OBV is elevated, and price is probing a 50% retracement with strong round‑number support at $1.00 and a magnet at the daily pivot ($1.10). In the next 24 hours, probabilities favor a reflex bounce toward $1.12–$1.15 after either holding or briefly undercutting $1.00. The cleanest setup is a buy‑the‑dip near $1.00 with a tactical target at $1.15.