Tilray Brands, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

TLRY coiled at the 0.618 Fib and 20D pivot: positioning for a 24h mean-reversion pop

TLRY | Deep-Dive, Step-by-Step Technical Analysis and 24h Outlook

Regime shift: TLRY surged from the $0.60–0.70 zone in July to a blow-off phase in mid/late August (high ~1.55 on 8/26). Since then, price has been in a corrective down channel, bleeding off the froth while holding above the early-August breakout area.
Current: 1.15 (near the session close). Today printed a pullback low near 1.10–1.11 and recovered back to ~1.15, indicating responsive buying near intraday support.

Daily trend: Short-term corrective downtrend within a larger, newly established uptrend. Lower highs post 8/26 (1.55 → 1.47 → 1.38 → 1.25 → 1.19 → 1.15) but still well above July levels.
1h/Intraday (today): A flush from ~1.19 at the open down to ~1.10–1.11, then a controlled rebound to ~1.15–1.16; momentum cooled into the close. Support emerged 1.10–1.12; overhead supply 1.17–1.19.

Supports: 1.10–1.12 (today’s reaction zone), 1.06 (8/19–20 closes), 1.03 (8/15 pivot), 0.95 (8/12 close) if deeper.
Resistances: 1.17–1.19 (intraday supply and today’s morning range), 1.22–1.25 (round-number/50% retrace cluster), 1.33, 1.38–1.40, 1.45–1.47.

5D SMA ≈ 1.29 (skewed higher by late-Aug spikes). Price well below 5D SMA → short-term stretched on the downside; tends to mean-revert.
10D SMA ≈ 1.29; price below → reinforces near-term oversold in the fast window.
20D SMA ≈ 1.16–1.18; price at/just below → price sitting near the intermediate mean; a common pivot for bounces.
50D SMA (est.) ≈ 0.90–1.00; price far above → confirms medium-term uptrend intact despite current pullback.
Read-through: Short-term bearish momentum inside a medium-term bullish regime; location near the 20D SMA favors a relief bounce attempt.

RSI(14) daily (est.) ~44–48: neutral-to-slightly-bearish but not oversold; downside momentum has subsided from August extremes.
Stochastics daily: Probable low-20s and curling higher post-flush → early reversal signal.
1h RSI today: Dipped toward oversold during the 1.10–1.11 flush, then recovered to mid-40s/50s; suggests a stabilization and potential follow-through if resistance gives.
Read-through: Momentum is no longer accelerating down; a turn up is plausible if price reclaims 1.17–1.19.

Daily MACD(12,26,9): Bearish crossover occurred after the late-Aug peak; histogram contraction suggests downside momentum is waning. A flattening here is consistent with a base attempt near the 20D.
Vortex/DI/Aroon (qualitative): After a strong Up regime in mid-Aug, bear signals predominated but are now near inflection territory; typical in late-stage corrections.

Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 1.17; upper ≈ 1.39; lower ≈ 0.95 (est.). Current price hovers slightly below the mid-band, indicating room for a mean-reversion push toward 1.20–1.22 without overextending.
ATR(14) est. ≈ 0.10–0.13: Implies 24h swing capacity of roughly 8–11% from current levels, adequate to test 1.20–1.22 if buyers press.

Late August climax volume (9-figure shares) marked the blow-off; subsequent sessions show tapering volume during the pullback, typical of corrective digestion rather than distribution.
Today: Heavier flow on the early flush and steady participation on the rebound to ~1.15. The lack of heavy sell programs into the close suggests supply is thinning into 1.10–1.12.
OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing after the August thrust; no glaring distribution footprint.

Using the August impulse from ~0.92 (8/11 close) to ~1.55 (8/26 high):
- 50% retrace ≈ 1.235
- 61.8% retrace ≈ 1.161
Price is hovering around the 0.618 retracement “golden pocket” (1.16) and slightly below. This zone often attracts responsive buyers in uptrends. Confluence with the 20D SMA strengthens the support case.

Falling wedge / controlled down channel from 8/26 peak into early September. Today’s higher intraday low vs subsequent downticks and close back near mid-range hints at a potential wedge resolution if 1.17–1.19 breaks.
Candles: Recent sequence of small-bodied candles and today’s lower tail signal absorption near 1.10–1.12.

13:30–15:30 UTC: Sharp drop from ~1.19 to ~1.11 with a spike in volume → capitulation attempt.
15:30–19:30 UTC: Gradual bid restoration to ~1.15–1.16, multiple prints 1.15–1.16, with sellers unable to push new lows.
20:00–21:00 UTC: Quiet consolidation 1.14–1.15 into the close; often a base for next-day gap or pop if headlines cooperate.

Location: At/near 0.618 Fib and 20D SMA → high-probability bounce zone within bigger uptrend.
Momentum: Bearish pressure fading; oscillators curling up from neutral/oversold.
Volatility: ATR supports an 8–10% rebound attempt within 24h.
Supply/Resistance: 1.17–1.19 must be reclaimed; above that, the magnet becomes 1.22–1.25 (mid/round and 50% retrace cluster).

Impulsive 5-wave-like advance into ~1.55 (late Aug), now likely an ABC correction: wave A (sharp), B (brief bounce into high 1.4s), C (current drift). C often terminates near 0.618 retracement—consistent with 1.16 area.

Tenkan (9) likely elevated (~1.30–1.35) due to late-Aug highs; Kijun (26) likely in 1.15–1.20 region. Price beneath Tenkan but near Kijun suggests equilibrium; a reclaim over ~1.18–1.20 would be a constructive signal. Cloud likely below/around 1.10–1.15 given July-Aug regime shift, offering some base support.

Intraday VWAP today clustered near 1.14–1.15. Price closed around VWAP → balanced day after the flush; tomorrow’s early session often resolves balance with a directional test.

Base Case (55–60%): Early probe of 1.17–1.19; if reclaimed on volume, extension to 1.20–1.22, with stretches to 1.24–1.25 possible if momentum accelerates.
Bear Case (30–35%): Fail under 1.17–1.19, rotate back to retest 1.10–1.12; a firm break below 1.10 would likely target 1.06.
Low-Prob Tail (5–10%): News-driven gap/run toward 1.28–1.33 if sector/headlines turn very favorable.

Edge: Long mean-reversion from 0.618 Fib/20D SMA confluence with intraday evidence of dip absorption.
Entry Tactics: Staggered bid in 1.13–1.15 zone (use 1.14 limit as the primary). This aligns with VWAP and improves reward/risk.
Target: 1.22 (first resistance pivot), optionally scale further into 1.24–1.25 if momentum/volume confirm.
Stop (not part of the requested output but crucial): 1.09 (below today’s flush low and round-number support), yielding roughly 1:2 R:R to 1.22.

The technical confluence favors a tactical long for a 24-hour bounce toward 1.20–1.22, provided 1.10–1.12 continues to hold and 1.17–1.19 is reclaimed with participation. Probability-weighted skew is modestly positive.