Tilray Brands, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

Tilray’s High-Volume Breakout: Buy the Throwback to AVWAP, Target the Run to $2

Snapshot and context

Ticker: TLRY (Tilray Brands, Inc.) | Currency: $ | Current price: 1.85 (post-market ~1.82). Daily 9/29 candle: O=1.355, H=1.86, L=1.34, C=1.85 with explosive volume (~370M shares). Intraday showed persistent higher highs with a late-session consolidation just under the high.
Structural takeaway: High-volume breakout from a multi-week consolidation range (roughly 1.15–1.33). Large Marubozu-type candle suggests institutional accumulation and potential trend acceleration, but the close well outside common volatility envelopes implies elevated odds of an early pullback/“throwback” before further upside.

Price action and trend analysis

Daily trend: Re-acceleration to the upside. The stock broke above the September supply shelf (1.24–1.33) decisively.
Intermediate trend: Higher lows since the 9/11 pivot (~1.06) into 9/26 (~1.15), then impulsive leg to 1.86. This resembles the start of a new momentum leg rather than a terminal blow-off.
Intraday (hourly): Series of higher highs and higher lows with volume building into the afternoon. Post-close easing to ~1.82 suggests healthy consolidation rather than distribution.

Immediate resistance: 1.86 (today’s high), 1.90–2.00 (psychological/round-number sellers), pivot R1 calculation points to ~2.03 as a first extension target.
Immediate support: 1.78–1.82 (late-session consolidation band), 1.70–1.72 (anchored VWAP/23.6% retrace cluster), 1.62–1.64 (intraday pivot shelf), 1.50–1.51 (classic S1/50% retrace zone) and 1.42 (61.8% retrace / top of prior base).

Volatility and breakout statistics

Today’s true range = 1.86 − 1.34 = 0.52, dramatically above recent sessions. A 14-day ATR that had been ~0.06–0.09 will likely rebase toward ~0.12–0.15. Expect a 24h range of roughly 0.25–0.35 if momentum persists.
Statistical tendency: After a >30–40% gain day on extreme volume, next session often sees an early shakeout toward first support/anchored VWAP, followed by a re-test of highs if the breakout is genuine.

Moving averages and momentum

5D SMA ≈ 1.34, 10D SMA ≈ 1.28, 20D SMA ≈ 1.21. Price is 38–52% above 5–20D averages — evidence of momentum but short-term overextension. Expect mean-reversion risk to the 1.65–1.75 area on any shakeout.
EMAs (est.): 8/21 EMAs should be crossing up sharply; price is materially above both — a bullish but stretched configuration.

Oscillators

RSI(14) (est.): Upper 70s to low 80s, i.e., overbought. In momentum regimes, RSI>70 can persist; however, it increases the probability of a pullback into rising support before continuation.
Stochastics: Likely >90 (embedded). This supports a “Bollinger Band walk” scenario until momentum fades.
MACD: Strong bullish cross with widening histogram; the zero-line is well below price, confirming an impulsive expansion.

Volatility envelopes and bands

Bollinger Bands (20,2): With a 20D mean ≈1.21 and a pre-breakout stdev small, price closed far above the upper band. Two likely paths: (a) walk the upper band with shallow pullbacks if demand persists; or (b) mean-revert toward a rising upper band (expected to jump into the 1.55–1.65 region by tomorrow’s session due to today’s print).

Ichimoku

Tenkan (9-period mid-range) will adjust sharply higher; post-recalc estimate ≈1.45–1.48. Kijun (26-period mid-range) ~1.30–1.32. Price is well above both and the cloud — strongest bullish state, but distance suggests a pullback toward Tenkan (≈1.45–1.50) is plausible if sellers press.

Fibonacci mapping (from 9/26 swing low 1.15 to 9/29 high 1.86, Δ=0.71)

23.6%: 1.86 − 0.167 ≈ 1.69
38.2%: 1.86 − 0.271 ≈ 1.59
50.0%: 1.86 − 0.355 ≈ 1.51
61.8%: 1.86 − 0.440 ≈ 1.42 These coincide with intraday shelves and classic pivots, strengthening their significance.

Pivot levels for next session (Classic; using H=1.86, L=1.34, C=1.85)

Pivot (P) ≈ 1.683
R1 ≈ 2.027, R2 ≈ 2.203, R3 ≈ 2.547
S1 ≈ 1.507, S2 ≈ 1.163, S3 ≈ 0.987 The central pivot near 1.68 aligns with the 23.6% Fib and anchored VWAP cluster — a high-probability “throwback” test zone.

VWAP and volume profile

Intraday/anchored VWAP from the 9/29 open (~1.36) likely sits ~1.66–1.70 after the late-session consolidation. That is prime dip-buy territory in strong momentum breakouts.
Volume Profile (today): Likely value area ~1.60–1.76 with POC near ~1.70–1.72. Expect heavy two-way trade there if price revisits.
OBV/Accumulation: Significant step-up confirms broad participation; no sign of distribution yet.

Parabolic SAR and ADX

Parabolic SAR (est.) would trail ~1.60–1.65 after an update — a dynamic stop guide for longs.
ADX rising strongly; trend strength is increasing, which favors buying dips over fading strength.

Pattern structure

Breakout from a multi-week base (1.15–1.33). The measured move from the base height (~0.18) added to 1.33 projects 1.51 (first objective, already exceeded). Larger pattern targets often extend to round numbers; 2.00–2.05 is a natural magnet in the next leg if momentum persists.
Elliott wave framing: Wave 1 (1.06→1.26), Wave 2 (~1.26→1.15), Wave 3 impulsive (1.15→1.86). A shallow Wave 4 toward 1.69–1.59 would be normal before a Wave 5 attempt toward 1.95–2.05.

Candlestick diagnostics

Today’s long-bodied bullish candle with minimal upper wick suggests demand into the close. Post-market retrace to 1.82 is a controlled fade, not a sharp rejection.

Risk factors and invalidation

If 1.70 fails decisively and price sustains below ~1.62 (intraday shelf) on rising volume, odds increase for a deeper retrace toward 1.50–1.51 (50% Fib/S1). A break and hold below 1.50 would threaten the breakout structure and raise gap-fill risk into 1.35–1.26 over multiple sessions.

24-hour tactical outlook

Base case (probable): Early dip/throwback into 1.70–1.72 (anchored VWAP/23.6% Fib), buyers defend, price rotates back up to test 1.86 with an extension attempt into 1.92–2.02. Intraday range 1.68–1.98.
Alternate bullish: Minor gap up to ~1.88–1.92, quick liquidity sweep down toward 1.74–1.78, then trend up to the 1.98–2.03 zone.
Bearish risk case: Loss of 1.70 early, failure at 1.72 retest, slide to 1.59–1.62; only on sustained heavy supply would 1.50 come into play within 24h.

Strategy synthesis and decision

Momentum breadth, volume confirmation, and structural breakout favor long-on-dip rather than chasing strength or shorting momentum. The confluence at ~1.70 (Pivot P ~1.683, AVWAP, 23.6% Fib, prior intraday node) offers an attractive risk-adjusted entry. First extension aligns with 1.98–2.03 (front-running heavy offers near 2.00 improves fill odds).

Trade plan (24h)

Bias: Buy the dip.
Entry: Limit buy around 1.70.
Profit target: 1.98 (front-run R1/round number).
Risk guide (not an order here, but for context): Invalidation on sustained trade <1.62; tactical hard stop would sit ~1.59 to avoid noise around 1.62 support.
R:R: Entry 1.70 to target 1.98 = +0.28 vs. risk to 1.59 = −0.11; R:R ≈ 2.5:1.

Bottom line

Expect an early pullback into 1.68–1.72 followed by a grind higher to re-test 1.86 and likely probe 1.95–2.00. Best-in-class setup is a patient long near 1.70 with a target near 1.98 within the next 24 hours, while respecting the 1.62–1.59 risk band.