Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

1. Chart Structure & Price Action

• Daily Chart View: TSLA experienced a massive sell-off from highs above $420 in January-February 2025, followed by a volume-climax drop to the low $200s in early April. Since then, there’s been a robust, sustained rebound with a breakout above $300 by early May and aggressive momentum into the $340s now. The current price sits at $342.82, just below Wednesday's intraday high of $350.
• Hourly Chart View: On May 15th, intraday swings showed wide volatility (high up to $363.36 and low in the $334.40s during a single hour; most of this is likely a data anomaly or after-hours spike). Trading has recalibrated back to the $342–$345 level.
• Volume: There’s pronounced volume through the late-April/early-May uptrend (strong demand), including a peak on breakouts (e.g., May 13–15).

2. Trend Analysis

• Moving Averages (20, 50, 200 SMA):
  • 20-SMA (estimated) is surging and likely around the $320s, now acting as dynamic support.
  • 50-SMA, previously resistance at $300, has been cleared and flipped to support.
  • 200-SMA (likely above $350–360 from earlier highs) is being approached rapidly. The 350–360 zone is a critical test for institutional sellers.
• Trend Strength (ADX/Directional Move):
  • Sharp positive trend (ADX est. > 35), supported by strong directional movement and large candle bodies.

3. Relative Strength & Momentum

• RSI (14-period, hourly & daily):
  • RSI daily likely surged past 70 (overbought), in line with the recent explosive rally.
  • On the hourly, RSI dipped as low as 55–60 during minor pullbacks, but remains elevated (momentum intact).
  • In strong trends, overbought conditions often persist.
• MACD: Buy signal triggered late April; faster line remains well above slower, MACD histogram at multi-week highs, but a slight narrowing over last few hours hints at consolidation or short-term pullback.
• Stochastics: Also super-extended; minor bearish crossover appeared in last hour, showing short-term fatigue.

4. Chart Patterns & Resistant/Support Levels

• Recent Structure:
  • Breakout: Clean break above $320, then $337–$340 barrier.
  • Support: $337–$340 (recent break zone); $320/314 as major trend support.
  • Resistance: $347.68 (May 14 high, tested intraday); $350 as the psychological level; $363 (anomalous spike, likely technical/illiquid print).
  • Pattern: Ascending triangle from April consolidation, resolved upward. Looks like a rising wedge developing on hourly — caution for short-term traders.

5. Volume Profile

• Volume spikes at breakouts ($320–$340 zone) show institutional accumulation. Recent upswings happen on rising volume, but the last two hours saw volumes tail off, which could portend a brief pause.

6. Volatility & ATR

• ATR (20-period, daily): Expanded sharply, now >$15/day (up from $10). On a shorter-term (2-hour), swings remain wild ($5–10/hour intraday). This increases risk but also opportunity.

7. Candlestick Patterns / Microstructure

• Recent hourly candles show upper wick rejection at $346–$350 (profit-taking). May 15th’s 20:00 hour shows a huge wick, suggesting sellers stepped in hard on the spike.
• Last two candles: Tight range near $342–$343, consolidation after fast move (bulls pausing, waiting for next catalyst).

8. Oscillators & Divergence

• No obvious negative divergence on 4-hour/daily MACD, but minor negative RSI divergence seen hourly: price closes higher, RSI flattens. Caution for new buyers.

9. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Major swing (Jan–April High-Low): 61.8% retrace comes in at ~$340, which is where price is pausing now; 78.6% retrace at $355–$358. These are probable resistance/supply zones.

10. Options/Order Flow (based on price/volume only)

• Explosion in volume during up-days signals big money participation. Implied volatility is likely elevated — near-term options buyers are chasing the move. This exaggerates swings, favoring those already long but bringing reversion risk soon.

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Synthesis & Forward Prediction (Next 12–18 Hours)

• Momentum is strong, but stalling at a key Fibonacci/volume-resistance band ($342–$350).
• Overbought indicators and intraday range expansion suggest a short-term pause or modest pullback is probable before another leg higher.
• Given the technicals:
  • Bulls: Wait for a dip to major recent support at $337–$340. If that zone holds, upside resumes toward $350 and then $355–$358.
  • Bears: Short-term traders may attempt a scalp short with stops above $348; risk of short squeeze remains high if new highs print quickly.
• Risk: The chart does NOT display a reversal yet, but the risk/reward for fresh longs at $343 is questionable due to extended conditions. Best risk/reward is on long entries at pullback support.

Final Trading Signal

Based on a combination of momentum, volume, and tactical support/resistance, a prudent trader should look to buy on a dip near $338, with a target back to recent highs at $347–$350. The trend remains up, but risk of a short-term retest of breakout support is elevated due to overbought momentum.

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Optimal Order Strategy:

• Wait for a dip to buy near $338 (top of recent breakout + fibonacci cluster).
• Take profit near $348–$350 (prior high).
• Place a tight stop-loss below $335 to manage risk (beneath the recent hourly swing low and the 20-SMA).

WARNING: If price SPURTS above $350 without a pullback, momentum chasers could create a euphoric blow-off; avoid buying surges, prefer entries on controlled retracements.

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Conclusion:

• Bias remains firmly bullish while price >$337.
• Seek long entries on retracements.
• Short-term pullbacks are likely and healthy within the uptrend.

Trade Details

• Direction: Buy (Long Position) • Open Price (Buy): $338.00 • Close Price (Take Profit): $348.00 • Stop-Loss: (Recommended) $335.00

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