Step-by-step, In-depth Technical Analysis of Tesla (TSLA) Price Action – June 23, 2025

1. Trend Analysis: Medium-to-Long-Term View

a. Daily Candlestick Structure and Higher Timeframe Trends

• From late February to early May 2025, TSLA exhibited classic retracement behavior, bottoming out around $222 on multiple occasions (March 10 and April 8), forming a clear support base.
• The subsequent months show a persistent uptrend, with higher lows and higher highs. Notably, after May 10, TSLA transitioned from the $250–$290 range to consistently closing above $300 by late May.
• Current price ($348.68) is near recent highs, suggesting powerful bullish momentum. The volume surge on June 23 (intraday volume on certain candles is substantial) confirms heightened institutional participation, often a catalyst for continued trends.

b. Short-Term Intraday Momentum

• June 23: Massive volatility—after opening at ~$327.54, TSLA spiked to a session high of $357.47 intraday, then closed at $348.68.
• The intraday price action formed something akin to an intraday shooting star but found support at/near $346.60, meaning profit-taking was met with renewed buyer interest.
• The combination of intraday volatility and a higher close, coupled with huge volume, suggests that buyers are still in control even after a rapid run-up.

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2. Technical Indicators

a. Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)

• 21-day EMA is estimated (back-of-envelope) at ~$325, given the rapid recent rise (support confirmed on June 18–21 pullbacks).
• 50-day SMA lags below, near $300–$315, reinforcing the uptrend; the distance between price and MA indicates overextension but not yet climax.
• The 200-day MA is likely far below, as the mid-term trend flipped bullish only recently.

Interpretation:

• TSLA is in a strong uptrend, trading significantly above important moving averages, confirming bullish alignment but also cautioning on short-term overbought conditions.

b. Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Momentum Oscillators

• Est. RSI is in the 70–75 range based on the vertical price acceleration since early June (from $316 to $357 in just over two weeks).
• This is entering "overbought" territory, which, historically for TSLA, can precede a brief cooldown or consolidation, but not necessarily immediate reversal—great momentum stocks can stay overbought for extended periods.

c. MACD Analysis

• MACD (12,26,9) likely shows a widening bullish divergence, indicating continuation of buying pressure. No evidence of bearish crossover.

d. Volume Profile and OBV (On-Balance Volume)

• Yesterday’s and today’s intraday volumes are at multi-week highs, confirming institutional trading and validating the breakout above $340.
• Cumulative OBV indicates persistent accumulation.

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3. Chart Patterns and Technical Setups

a. Breakout and Retest

• The break above $343–$347 (major resistance from mid-May and late May) with huge volume is a textbook breakout.
• Today’s high ($357.47) acts as a psychological and technical resistance; the pullback to $346.60 and quick recovery suggest accumulation on dips.
• Possible formation: Bullish flag or pennant if price consolidates between $346 and $353 in the next session.

b. Support and Resistance Levels

• Key immediate support: $346.50–$347.00 (June 23 low, also late-May top).
• Psychological and minor technical support: $340 (mid-May recent highs).
• Immediate resistance: $357.50 (today’s high), then $365 (May 28–29 highs), and potentially $370 as a round number target.

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4. Order Flow, Volume, and Market Structure

• Intraday, the highest volumes occurred on the upside (13:30–14:30 UTC and again as price reached $353.39).
• Sign of large market buy orders chasing breakouts, likely with systematic rotation into TSLA.
• The pullback in the afternoon was moderate, not panic-driven; sellers have yet to regain control.

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5. Volatility and Price Targets (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• 10-day ATR (averaged from recent high/low ranges) is approximately $10–$15/day.
• Today’s high-range candle confirms that daily moves of $10–$15 are normal and, after breakouts, moves can extend beyond ATR.
• Estimated Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the upper band, clear sign of breakout momentum, but also at short-term risk of recoil or volatility spike.

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6. Intermarket and Sentiment Overview

• AI/Electric vehicle sector remains a top-performing market segment in 2025.
• No negative headlines present in recent data (giornalistic or EPS-driven selloffs are absent).
• Options market skew likely favoring calls, supporting a near-term bullish thesis.

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7. Synthesis and Signal Determination

• Momentum is robust and institutional flows are supporting the breakout above the $340–$347 consolidation zone.
• Near-term, TSLA can briefly consolidate or retest the $346.00–$347.00 range before another extension toward recent highs.
• Risk: Overbought oscillator readings warrant caution for aggressive chasing. Ideal strategy is a pullback buy to maximize risk/reward.

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8. Trade Plan and Price Forecast for Next 24 Hours

• Expectation: Likely another push to retest today’s high ($357.50), possibly challenge $365 if market conditions are favorable. Any dip to $346–$347 is likely to be bought aggressively.
• Order Plan:
  • Open Buy (Long): $347.00 (on or just above prior intraday support/lows, maximizing risk/reward)
  • Target (Take Profit): $357.00 (near prior high/upper boundary of today’s range)
• Stop Loss (not requested, but recommended): Below $343.00 (breakdown level invalidates bullish thesis)

Decision: Buy (Long position)

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9. Summary Table

Indicator/Pattern	Signal	Comments
Long-Term Trend	Bullish	Uptrend, strong volume
RSI	Overbought	Stay nimble on entries
MACD	Bullish	No sign of reversal
OBV/Accumulation	Bullish	Institutional flows
Key Support	$346–$347	Optimal entry range
Key Resistance	$357.50/$365	Next upside targets
Intraday Formation	Flag/Breakout	Momentum continuation likely

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10. Final Conclusion:

TSLA continues to demonstrate powerful bullish momentum, recently breaking key resistance with a surge in volume and institutional activity. Overbought oscillators suggest not to chase, but dips into the $346–$347 area are likely attractive, with short-term upside targets around $357 and potentially $365 if momentum persists. The optimal risk/reward is achieved by waiting for a minor consolidation or pullback before entering long.

Recommended Action: Buy on a minor dip/retest, open at $347.00, and take profit at $357.00.