WBTN Day-2 Playbook: Buy the VWAP Dip for a Retest of 18+ After a Breakaway Gap

Executive summary and setup

• Context: WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN) just printed a Day-1 breakaway gap and high-volume trend day. Close/last trade 16.96–17.01 after a session high of 18.44, opening from 12.73–12.80. Volume 15.1M vs recent average ~0.25–0.45M, i.e., 30–60x relative. This is a textbook catalyst-driven expansion in price, range, and participation.
• Immediate read: Price closed above the session VWAP (~16.70) and defended the 16.30–16.40 intraday shelf multiple times, signaling real demand and not just a one-way blow-off. Despite the large upper wick from 18.44, the real body is still wide and dominant, consistent with trend continuation potential into Day-2, with early-morning squeeze risk to re-test 17.60–18.40.
• 24h bias: Mildly bullish with buy-the-dip preferred over chasing. Optimal entry is near VWAP/pullback supports 16.50–16.80. Primary target is a retest of 18.10–18.40. A break-and-hold above 17.70 increases odds of a full high retest or marginal new high.

Multi-timeframe structure

1. Daily trend and structure

• Range expansion: H 18.44, L 12.73, C ~16.96. Wide range and large body confirm initiative buying. The move cleared every visible high in the provided dataset (4 months), implying overhead supply vacuum in this window.
• Base and breakout: From April to early August, price oscillated mostly 8.1–10.6 with a July mini-uptrend to 10.58, followed by a pullback to ~9.18–9.34. Today’s gap thrusts price well beyond the Donchian 20D high (10.63), a significant breakout.
• Moving averages (approximations from available closes): • 10D SMA ≈ 10.07; 20D SMA ≈ low 9s; 50D SMA ≈ around high 8s/low 9s. Price is now massively above all visible SMAs, consistent with a momentum regime. These will act as lagging support on any multi-day mean reversion.
• Momentum: Daily RSI is almost certainly elevated (likely >80) following an ~80% up day. Overbought in momentum terms does not mean sell; in breakaway regimes it often coincides with further upside but with higher volatility and intraday shakeouts.
• Bollinger/Volatility regime: Price is far above the upper band given the prior tight cluster near ~9–10. This confirms regime shift; volatility clustering suggests Day-2 remains wide.

2. Intraday (hourly) tape and VWAP

• Hourly closes: 16.41 → 17.44 → 16.61 → 17.00 → 16.60 → 17.28 → 16.96 → 17.01. This is an expansion, consolidation, and reattempt pattern rather than a full fade. The 16.30–16.40 zone was defended multiple times intraday.
• Anchored session VWAP (approx.): ~16.70 using hour-by-hour close*volume weighting. Price finished marginally above VWAP, which is constructive; late-day trade above VWAP implies demand persistence.
• Value and acceptance: The heaviest participation occurred during the first three hours and again around the 18.30 bar, with closes clustering 16.60–17.30. The developing value area center of mass sits around 16.7–17.0, suggesting that dips toward 16.5–16.7 should find buyers unless news flow changes.

Key levels and confluences

• Fib retracements on Day-1 range (12.73 → 18.44): • 23.6%: 17.09 (near late close ~17.0) • 38.2%: 16.26 (near intraday shelf low end ~16.30) • 50%: 15.58 • 61.8%: 14.91
• Session VWAP: ~16.70 (confluent with 23.6–38.2% band). Prime dip-buy zone 16.50–16.80.
• Intraday support: 16.30–16.40 (tested several times). If lost, next meaningful retrace magnet 15.55–15.60 (50% Fib).
• Resistance/pivots overhead: 17.44 hour close; 17.60–17.68 intraday supply; 18.44 session high. A clean push through 17.70 with volume often opens a path to HOD retest.
• Classic floor pivots for next session (using H=18.44, L=12.73, C=16.96): • Pivot P ≈ 16.04 • R1 ≈ 19.36, S1 ≈ 13.65 • R2 ≈ 21.75, S2 ≈ 10.33 These are wide due to the giant range; near-term actionable levels remain VWAP/fibs and today’s intraday shelves.

Momentum and breadth indicators

• MACD daily: Strong positive inflection expected; histogram expansion aligns with an impulse leg. This favors continuation in the near term but also warns of potential whipsaws as volatility normalizes.
• RSI daily: Likely extreme. In breakaway conditions, the first overbought print frequently precedes an additional push before any deeper pullback. Expect elevated pullback risk intra-session even in a net-up day.
• ADX/DMI: ADX almost certainly rising from low-to-moderate baseline to high; +DI >> -DI. Trend confirmation.

Pattern analysis and market microstructure

• Breakaway gap: The gap up from ~9.36 to ~12.8 qualifies as an expansion gap out of a multi-month box. These gaps often do not fully fill immediately if there is a real catalyst and institutional demand. Instead, partial retracements to VWAP/38.2% are common before continuation.
• Intraday consolidation: Post-spike balance between ~16.3 and ~17.6 reads as a re-accumulation band, not distribution, given the close above VWAP and no persistent lower highs into the close.
• Candles: Day-1 is a wide-body bullish candle with only a moderate upper wick relative to the body. Hourly sequence suggests a mid-day shakeout (16.3–16.6) followed by a late-day re-bid (17.28) and a controlled close around 17.00.
• Wyckoff lens: Today resembles Phase E markup with a local re-accumulation. The 16.3–16.4 zone looks like an LPS (last point of support). If that zone holds on Day-2, a sign of strength (SOS) toward 17.6–18.4 is likely.

Risk and volatility framework

• ATR expansion: Day-1 range ~5.71. Day-2 typical compression could still be 50–70% of Day-1 range, i.e., 2.8–4.0. Expect 1–2 dollar swings to be routine.
• Mean reversion risk: A decisive break below 16.30 increases the odds of a deeper retracement to the 50% Fib ~15.58. Below that, 14.9–15.0 (61.8%) is the next major demand candidate.
• Continuation risk: Chasing above 17.6 into prior intraday supply risks a double-top fade unless volume expands. The high-probability tactic is entering on controlled pullbacks toward 16.5–16.8.

Strategy synthesis using multiple techniques

1. Anchored VWAP (primary): As long as price holds above or reclaims ~16.70, the path of least resistance is higher. This is my main decision anchor.
2. Fibonacci confluence: Buy zone overlaps VWAP and the 23.6–38.2% retrace band (16.26–17.09). Targeting a move back to 18.1–18.4 offers 1.4–1.7 upside vs ~0.4–0.6 downside to 16.3–16.5 on a tight risk leash.
3. Donchian breakout: Clearing a multi-month channel tends to attract trend-followers on Day-2. Supports buy-the-dip bias.
4. Classic pivots: With P near 16.04 and R1 at 19.36, there is statistical room above if momentum rekindles; however, near-term trade location is around VWAP, not the far pivot bands.
5. Market profile/value: Value forming around 16.7–17.0. Reversion to value then rotation up is a common Day-2 pattern in these scenarios.
6. Momentum/RSI: Elevated RSI argues for two-way volatility. Use dips; avoid late chases unless a clear breakout with volume.
7. Elliott-style impulse read (tactical): Day-1 impulse (wave 1/3) followed by a shallow intraday wave-2-like pause. Day-2 morning could present a wave-3-of-3 squeeze toward prior high before an afternoon mean reversion. Treat as probabilistic, not deterministic.
8. Heikin Ashi/Trend filtering: Would show strong green bodies today with a possible small upper wick; typical continuation next bar but often with an early dip.
9. Keltner channels: Price is likely outside upper KC; mean reversion pullback toward the channel boundary coincides with the 16.5–16.8 zone.
10. Risk-parity sizing: Given Day-2 ATR potential ~3, risk per share using a 0.50–0.70 stop suggests sizing accordingly to maintain constant portfolio risk.

24-hour path projection (primary and alternate)

• Base case (55–60%): Early pullback to 16.50–16.80, hold above 16.30, then rotation up to 17.60 and attempt at 18.10–18.40. Net positive close relative to 17.0.
• Bull extension (20–25%): Quick reclaim above 17.60 off the open/premarket, then breakout >17.70 and squeeze to 18.60–18.90 (marginal new high). Potential fade later but net higher.
• Bear retrace (20–25%): Lose 16.30 with momentum; fast move to 15.55–15.60 (50% Fib). This would reset the setup; below 15.55 would target 14.9–15.0.

Execution plan

• Trade type: Buy-the-dip (long). Prefer a limit near VWAP confluence.
• Optimal entry: 16.70 (inside the 16.50–16.80 zone). If liquidity is thin, allow a slight range: 16.60–16.80.
• Profit objective (24h): 18.25 (under the 18.44 high to increase fill probability). This offers +1.55 from 16.70 (+9.3%).
• Risk control (not part of output fields but essential): Protective stop 16.18–16.25 (below the defended 16.30 shelf and below 38.2% at 16.26). Risk ~0.45–0.52 per share. Reward:risk ≈ 3:1.
• Contingency: If price gaps and holds above 17.70 premarket with expanding volume, an alternate momentum entry is a breakout buy at 17.80 with a tighter stop ~17.20 and target 18.90. However, the primary submitted plan remains the VWAP dip entry.

Why not short?

• There is no established overhead supply in the provided window; the breakout is clean. The session did not close on the lows or below VWAP, and buyers controlled key reactions. Shorting Day-2 of a fresh, high-rel-volume breakaway is lower expectancy unless 16.30 fails decisively.

Bottom line

• The confluence of anchored VWAP support (~16.70), Fibonacci retracement band (16.26–17.09), preserved intraday shelf (16.30–16.40), and strong participation favors buying a controlled dip for a 24-hour retest of 18+. The plan balances high odds of a Day-2 test with disciplined risk below the shelf.