Step-by-Step Analysis of Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF)

1. Trend Analysis (Price Action)

• Daily Chart: The price history data reveals a catastrophic collapse from $6–$4 range as recently as late April/early May 2025 to sub-$1 by mid-June. There was a particularly aggressive downward gap on 2025-05-21 (from $3.13 at the open to as low as $0.82 intraday), with sustained heavy selling and near-zero recovery.
• Intraday Action (June 23): The session opened at $0.67, hit a high of $0.74, crashed to a low of $0.55, and closed at $0.6134. Despite oversold conditions, no significant bounce occurred. Bears maintained control—any relief rallies were quickly sold off, and the close near the lower end of the range confirms persistent bearish sentiment.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Over Time: Recent volume is elevated compared to average, specifically on sell-off days (e.g., 255M on May 21, 125M on May 22, and ~58M on June 23). This signals institutional selling or forced liquidation, not speculative trading. There is no evidence of accumulation, as volume spikes coincide with price collapses.

3. Support and Resistance

• Historical Support: All meaningful support levels (e.g., $3.00, $2.50, $1.30, $1.00) have been broken. There is no technical support at current levels ($0.6134), other than psychological levels ($0.50, $0.25).
• Resistance: Short-term resistance lies at $0.75 (today’s session high and recent local max), followed by $1.00 (psychological round number and previous pivot).

4. Moving Averages

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
  • 5-day: Clearly trending lower (approx $1.03-area), far above current price.
  • 20-day: Much higher still, suggesting extended oversold, but no reversal pattern.
• Trend: All major moving averages are pointed down; price remains well below even the shortest averages, denoting a trend in acceleration phase.

5. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimate: Given the constant decline, RSI is almost certainly sub-30 (deeply oversold). However, there is no reversal bounce, indicating ongoing directional momentum despite oversold technicals—typical of a breakdown following catastrophic news/fundamental reset.

6. MACD

• Estimate: MACD histogram and line both negative with no bullish crossover in sight. The distance between MACD line and signal line expanding—confirms strong downside momentum.

7. Bollinger Bands

• Observation: Price pierced lower bands repeatedly in previous sessions but hugging the lower band throughout, with no mean reversion bounce. Bands are likely expanding (volatility spike), which signals trend continuation potential rather than reversal.

8. Chart Patterns

• Descending Channel/Breakdown: The parabolic downward movement reflects capitulation. Additionally, there was a gapping play (especially on May 21 and late March), typical after bankruptcy rumors, delisting, or extreme negative news.
• No Reversal Patterns: No double bottom, bullish engulfing, or hammer candles visible. Each attempted rally is sold into.

9. Fibonacci Levels

• Retracements are Inapplicable: Price has fallen so far, standard retracement levels provide little value. There’s no clear bounce or swing low to anchor fibs to.

10. Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Spiked sharply during/after drastic price drops. The large high-low spreads in recent sessions suggest high risk for both longs and shorts but advantage with trend-following strategies.

11. Sentiment and Tape Reading

• Order Flow: Persistent downward bias. Bouncers (intraday rallies) fail quickly. No evidence of large bid absorption; offers dictate tape. High volumes on sell candles.
• Market Psychology: Panic selling and forced liquidation dominate. Bottom-fishing attempts are weak and unsustained.

12. Fundamental Implied Context

• Although only technical data is provided, the level and nature of volume and gap-downs strongly suggest bankruptcy risk, ongoing delisting, dilution, or existential business event. This justifies continued selling even at extreme lows.

13. Statistical Techniques

• Mean Reversion: Statistically, a big oversold move might invite a dead-cat bounce, but every oversold reading since $3.00 has not produced a sustained rally. The path dependency is to the downside with no buyers at any perceived value point.
• Risk-Reward: Short positions near supportless regions may be risky, but price action shows no buyers.

14. Synergizing All Techniques

• Every major method—trend, momentum, volume, order flow, patterns—points to downside continuation. There is no bottoming structure. Bounces are met with overwhelming selling. Despite deeply oversold readings (from RSI, MACD, etc.), no reversal is observed, indicating the move is news-driven or a forced exit situation.

Summary

Despite deep oversold conditions, bearish momentum continues and no bottoming signals are present. The trend is clearly down, all rallies are being sold into, and neither volume nor candlestick analysis indicate any change in direction. The optimal short entry is at minor resistance from the current high volatility range.

Prediction

Further price decline is likely in the next 24 hours, testing psychological or round-number supports in the 0.50–0.55 area, with no technical basis for meaningful recovery. Short selling (Sell) is favored.

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Trade Recommendation:

• Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: $0.62 (resistance region just above last close and minor local highs on 20:00 and 19:30 bars)
• Take Profit Price: $0.54 (near recent lows, just above $0.55 large-lot buyer zone—expect bids to step in at round numbers)

Consider using stops or close monitoring due to risk of sudden short covering, but technical evidence is overwhelmingly bearish for the next 24 hours.