Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) as of July 1, 2025

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1. Price and Volume Structure: Recent Overview

• Current Price: $0.79 (as of 2025-07-01 21:00 UTC)
• Intraday Volatility: On July 1, 2025, enormous volume spikes occurred: e.g., 284M at 13:30, 68.7M at 14:30.
• Key Price Movements:
  • June 27 - July 1: Decline to $0.40, then a sharp rebound to $0.85+ on July 1, followed by consolidation near $0.79.
  • Major gap up between June 30 close ($0.40) and July 1 open ($0.7256)—unusual, suggesting news or a structural shift.

2. Trend Analysis (Price Action)

• Long-Term Trend: Decisive multi-month downtrend from March ($6+) to recent lows ($0.40-$0.80) on substantial volume. Bears in firm control until July 1.
• Short-Term Trend: Extreme volatility and reversal on July 1 with a +100% upside move and subsequent retracement—a classic dead cat bounce or possible short squeeze.

Chart Patterns

• Capitulation and Bounce: Prolonged sharp decline, increasing capitulation volume at lows (e.g., >120M on June 30), rapid V-shaped rebound on July 1, often seen at bottoms.
• Support/Resistance Levels:
  • Local support: $0.77 – $0.80 (tested multiple times intraday July 1)
  • Immediate resistance: $0.85 – $0.88 (July 1 session highs)
  • Psychological resistance: $1.00 (round figure, prior resistance from June 18/20)

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes: June 30/July 1 posting consecutive ~120M and >284M shares traded—substantially above average.
• Interpretation: Panic selling followed by aggressive short covering or speculative buying.

4. Candlestick Analysis

• Recent Candles:
  • June 30: Extreme volume, small green body after a hammer at $0.40—the brush with bottom.
  • July 1: Tall green candlestick, but with upper wicks on $0.88+ highs and closes below highs—exhaustion and sellers reappearing on spikes.

5. Intraday/Historical Volatility

• ATR (Approximate, 7-day): ATR roughly $0.15; for a sub-$1 stock this is spectacular volatility (nearly 20% of price daily), indicating risk and opportunity, but also instability.
• Implication: Likelihood of further wild swings, demand caution.

6. Moving Averages Analysis

• 50/200 SMA: Both longer MAs (if calculated) would be sloping sharply downward owing to the persistent multi-month decline. The stock is trading well below classical moving averages and is now rebounding toward their direction, meaning major overhead resistance remains.
• Short-Term MAs (10/20 SMA): Likely set to start turning up given the magnitude of the bounce; could provide short-term support at $0.70-$0.75.

7. Oscillator Analysis

• RSI (14): Approximated to be rebounding out of deep oversold (<20 zone prior to July 1) into the 30s-40s, reflecting the bounce but not yet signaling a full reversal.
• MACD: Would be deeply negative, but the MACD line would be curving up hard toward the signal, telegraphing a possible reversal setup if positive momentum continues tomorrow.

8. Gap Analysis

• Gap Up (June 30 close to July 1 open): About 80% gap up—classic for short-term oversold relief rally or short squeeze. Often, such gaps retrace partially; only strong catalysts sustain upside gaps.

9. Order Flow / Tape Reading (Microstructure)

• Aggressive buying in the premarket/open, chasing price to $0.85+, but failure to hold intraday highs, closing toward $0.79. Indicates profit-taking or lack of sustained conviction by bulls.
• Sell-side liquidity evident above $0.85.

10. Fundamental Backdrop and Context

• No explicit fundamental news analyzed here, but such a catastrophic decline is almost always traceable to negative catalyst (earnings, litigation, bankruptcy risk, delisting, etc.). Short-term traders will focus on price action, but investors must be mindful of existential company risks—personally, I would not fundamentally invest at these levels; this is a pure technical/speculative short-term play.

11. Option Flow & Market Sentiment

• Unusually high speculative impulse as seen in volume and volatility.
• Most likely market consensus: Temporary bounce; true bottom not yet confirmed. Sentiment extremely negative, but could set up a further short squeeze on break of $0.88-$0.90.

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Synthesis & Forecast for Next 24 Hours

• Base Case: The massive bounce has likely run its first course; expect consolidation between $0.74-$0.88 with a bias toward initial profit-taking on any rally attempts absent new bullish catalysts.
• Upside Scenario: If price breaks $0.88 on strong volume, a further squeeze to $0.95-$1.00 is possible (but unlikely unless major news emerges).
• Downside Scenario: Failure to hold above $0.77 support would invite quick retests of $0.74, then $0.70. If panic resumes, $0.60 is next line of support.
• Probability-Weighted Action: Given exhausted buying, upper shadow rejections, and unsustained moves above $0.85, the path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is a mild retracement or consolidation—high risk for longs, short-term sellers favored unless $0.88-$0.90 is broken on a retest with force.

Trading Strategy Recommendation

• Action: "Sell (Short Position)"
• Reasoning: Technical relief rallies in broken downtrends are typically followed by consolidation and renewed downside pressure, especially as early longs cash in gains. Overhead supply between $0.80-$0.90 will be tough to overcome immediately. Placing shorts into spikes with tight stops is favored; risk/reward for new longs is poor unless $0.90 is breached with conviction.
• Entry & Exit:
  • Sell Entry: $0.80 (cluster of resistance, close to current price, allows for fade on any uptick)
  • Target 1 (Take Profit): $0.67 (prior low area from June 23-24)
  • Risk / Stop: Close above $0.90 (if price surges on major volume)

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Caveat: This is a very high risk, momentum-driven short-term trade opportunity; position sizing and risk management are paramount.