Detailed Technical Analysis of Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) as of July 9, 2025

1. Overview

Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) currently trades at $2.02 (last close). Its recent history is highly volatile, marked by extraordinary volume surges, sharp price declines, and equally aggressive recoveries, implying a stock under extreme speculative behavior likely due to major news, earnings, restructuring events, or a short squeeze.

2. Long-term/Intermediate Trend Analysis

a. Support/Resistance

• Major Support (recent lows): $0.40–$0.79 (consolidation, capitulation, and bounce zone end of June/beginning July)
• Major Resistance: $2.52–$3.33 (intraday highs, July 7–8)
• Current Price: $2.02, near intraday support of $1.98 (see July 9 late session prints)

b. Trend Structure

• From March to late May: Heavy downtrend from $5.43 through $0.40 with several gap-downs.
• Late June/early July: Dramatic volume spike and bottoming (~$0.40), followed by a sharp V-shaped rebound peaking $3.33 on July 8.—this breakout suggests a potential short-term bottom is in.
• Current phase: Retrenchment from the $2.50–$3.30 range to $2.02, testing prior support (now resistance flip), indicating profit-taking and uncertainty after the violent short-term recovery.

3. Volume/Volatility Analysis

• Record volume: Confirmed capitulation bottoming (516+ million shares on July 1), supportive of extreme sentiment shift.
• Follow-through: Sustained high volume up to July 9, confirming new traders/speculators in control.
• ATR (Average True Range): Current high volatility environment, with daily ranges >$0.50—>$1.50.

4. Candlestick and Intraday Patterns

• Intraday (July 9):
  • Sequence of lower highs throughout the day. Failed to reclaim $2.44 (pre-morning resistance).
  • Afternoon action saw the price test $1.98 repeatedly, holding above this level into the close. The sequence reflects attempt at bottoming but with sellers persistent at each bounce.
• July 8–9: Bearish engulfing pattern with a failed retest of previous high, confirming reversal from the sharp bounce.

5. Moving Average Analysis

• Short-term MAs (10 & 20 EMA): Price remains below rapidly falling short-term exponential MAs due to the swift reversal below $2.20–$2.30, signaling renewed short-term selling momentum.
• Medium/Long-term MAs: Meaningless for now due to jumpy volatility and structural breaks. However, a major bearish trend remains established unless $2.60+ is reclaimed.

6. Momentum Indicators

• RSI: Not specifically provided, but estimating based on recent action:
  • Oversold on bounce from June ($0.40), overbought into July 7–8’s spike ($3.33), now rapidly normalizing to neutral ($2.02).
  • Plunge in price/failed retest suggest RSI <50 and falling, confirming momentum has shifted back to sellers.
• MACD: Positive cross likely occurred at the $0.40–$2.80 run, but is almost certainly rolling over bearish on today’s sustained drop.

7. Order Flow, Liquidity and Book Depth

• Aggressive selling pressure dominates during July 9’s session, especially late day.
• No evidence of steady institutional bid. Action feels speculative and order flow shows exhaustion at every rally.

8. Gap & Psychological Level Analysis

• Gaps remain open: $0.80–$1.80 and $2.00–$3.30. Such large gaps usually retest extremes before continuing trend.
• $2.00 is key psychological level: Price actions around this level are often noisy but significant for next trend direction.

9. Elliott Wave Perspective

• Completed Wave 1 Down ($5.50 → $0.40), oversold bounce as Wave 2 ($0.40 → $3.33), now likely entering corrective/countermove (Wave 3 down to test new lows or consolidate).

10. Sentiment & News Flow

• Sentiment remains fragile: Massive volatility, coupled with enormous volume, signals a market with low conviction and high fear/greed dynamics at play.
• Extreme caution advised.

11. Probability & Scenarios for Next 24h

Base case (60%):

• Weak bounce, then selloff resumes. Attempt at retest of $2.20 area fails; price drifts, breaks below $2.00 support, slides toward $1.70–$1.50.

Bullish case (20%):

• Recovery rally above $2.20, attempts gap fill toward $2.50–$2.60, but faces heavy supply.

Bearish case (20%):

• Panic selling resumes early, $1.70 fails, freefall back toward $1.20–$1.00 support zone.

12. Synthesis and Trading Plan

• Momentum is now negative following failed bounces, with buyers showing exhaustion.
• High risk: Only nimble, short-duration trades likely to succeed. TOP Trading opportunity is to play for a move lower to retest the $1.50 area.
• Short-bias confirmed: Any failed pop toward $2.10–$2.18 is a place to open a short. Place stop above $2.25. Target $1.55–$1.50 for exit.

SUMMARY

• Chart structure, momentum, and order flow all suggest high likelihood that the next 24 hours will see price bleed lower, potentially rapidly if $2.00 support fails. A short-sell at or just below $2.02, with a stop on any strong reclaim of $2.22, targeting a swift move to $1.55–$1.50, offers the best risk/reward setup.

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Final Decision: SELL with open at $2.01–$2.02 (market if available), Target $1.55, Stop above $2.22. Only experienced traders should act; volatility and slippage risks are extreme.