Wolfspeed, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

Wolfspeed (WOLF): Is the Dead Cat Bounce Over? Technicals Signal Short Opportunity Near $1.60

Trend Analysis (The Big Picture):
- The long-term chart shows an extreme, multi-leg downtrend since mid-March 2025. The stock went from over $6 to below $0.50 by the end of June. This is a >90% drawdown in just three months—a severe collapse.
- Capitulation event occurred around late June (June 27-30), with volume spiking (e.g., over 128M on June 30 vs. previous averages <20M). The price fell as low as $0.40.
- July saw a massive reversal pop. On July 1, a huge green candle with over 500M volume, price regaining $0.79. A multi-day rally followed, peaking at $3.33 on July 8.
- Since the July spike, there’s been a rapid pullback and consolidation in the $1.25–$1.75 zone. The most recent close is at $1.55.

Unusual Activity: Multiple days above 100M–500M in volume from late June onward, showing possible forced selling, shorts covering, and aggressive speculative buying.
Recent volatility: July 7-8 spike had high intraday swings (low $1.43 -> high $2.77 on July 7; $2.38 -> $3.33 on July 8). Recent intraday range has compressed but remains wide relative to price (~5–10%).
Current environment: Liquidity remains high; volatility is elevated but compressing.

Support: $1.25 (from July 9, July 14 lows), $1.15 (late June bounce zone), $1.00 (psychological/round number, June 18-20 consolidation).
Resistance: $1.75-1.80 (7/10 high, recent failed top), $2.00 (July 9 support/July 10 resistance, round number), $2.35, $2.75 (recent July peaks).
Fibonacci Retracement from July rebound:
- $0.80 (31 Jun) to $3.33 (8 Jul):
  - 38.2%: ~$2.21
  - 50%: ~$2.06
  - 61.8%: ~$1.91
- Price is below all key retracements, suggesting correction is deepening, but $1.25-$1.50 is a possible intermediate support area.

Last three daily candles: July 11–15 show lower tails, indicating dip buying, but upper wicks as well, indicating overhead supply and intra-day profit taking.
July 15: Open $1.54, high $1.77, low $1.46, close $1.55. Candle is a long-legged doji/hammer, signaling indecision but possible reversal attempt.

10-period EMA (estimate): Approximately $1.52–$1.60, price hugged this zone for several hours intraday. Short-term MA is flattening, reflecting balanced battle between bulls/bears.
30-period SMA (estimate): Steeply down due to plunge, may provide overhead resistance toward $1.75 in event of bounce.

RSI: Likely rebounded from oversold (was <20 end of June). Currently, with sideways movement and no strong rally, estimated RSI 45–55—neutral area but still below bullish.
MACD: The histogram is likely diminishing, with signal and MACD lines close—momentum is weak, and direction is not confirmed.

Sentiment: Panic/fear likely shifted to high-speculative interest post-June collapse. Now mixed as bargain hunting vs disbelief in further recovery.
Order Book/Micro: Large prints on the bid at $1.45–$1.50, resistance at $1.75 and up. Liquidity cluster visible from $1.50–$1.60. Volatility compressing: possible coiled spring for next move.

Impluse (down) + Dead Cat Bounce (up) Structure
- Extreme move down (wave 3), reflexive rally (wave 4), possibly preparing for a secondary decline (wave 5)—if so, $1.25/1.00 tested.
- Alternatively: If $1.55 base holds (high-volume doji form), could be a bottoming formation for bounce.

Given volume surges and parabolic price action, it is highly likely shorts were involved. Recent sideways action suggests profit taking by shorts and indecisive speculative activity.

Acceptance zone now $1.50–$1.55 (most traded). If this breaks, $1.25–$1.30 is next support. To the upside, $1.77–$2.00 is supply zone.

Trend: Still broadly negative; powerful reactive bounce losing strength.
Momentum: Neutral to slightly negative; no real confirmation of new uptrend yet.
Support/Resistance: $1.25 key support; $1.80 first resistance.
Risk/Reward: Sellers have pressed advantages after rally, likely to attempt breaking $1.50 in coming sessions.
Intraday Microstructural Dynamics: Attempts to rally continually sold; recent doji-shaped candlestick signals hesitation, but with no bullish follow-through.

Primary bias: Short-term, further downside expected before meaningful reversal.

Position: Short (Sell)
Entry (Open Price): Best risk/reward to short near current resistance $1.55 (current price) or ideally into any bounce to $1.58–$1.60 to maximize entry.
Target (Close Price): $1.30 (test near-term support cluster and recent acceptance zone). Partial cover at $1.25 if panic selling resumes.
Risk Management: Stop above $1.75 (recent swing high), minimizing exposure to possible squeeze. Adjust if price closes >$1.60 with heavy volume.

Rationale:

Failed bounce attempts, overhead supply, ongoing distribution below short-term moving averages. Macro sentiment fragile post-collapse. Probability of drift down to $1.30–$1.25 in next 24 hrs is high unless sudden news or squeeze.
Wait for a small uptick toward $1.58 (ideally $1.60) to optimize entry.